VENEZUELA: PUTTING THE BRAKES ON HUGO CHAVEZ

In a constitutional referendum on December 2, voters in Venezuela sent a clear message to their president: \'\'Slow down,\'\' writes Jennifer L. McCoy, political science professor at Georgia State University, and director of the Americas Programme at The Carter Centre in Atlanta. In this analysis, McCoy writes that President Hugo Chavez\' own supporters refused to do what he asked - vote on his constitutional reform proposals as if it were a personal loyalty test to him. Venezuela could profit from this experience if all sides (and the US too) learn the lessons and capitalise on the opportunities it provides. International actors should not underestimate the capacity of the Venezuelan people to provide broad constraints on their government, even when institutional checks and balances are practically non-existent. As long as President Chavez follows the electoral path, the Venezuelan people will determine how far they will support his ideas, and when to put on the brakes.

THE MEANING OF THE YEAR OF ELECTIONS IN LATIN AMERICA

Hugo Chavez\' re-election on December 3 concludes a year of elections in Latin America in which nine countries chose candidates reportedly left of centre and three chose candidates reportedly right of centre, writes Jennifer McCoy, Professor of Political Science at Georgia State University and Director of the Americas Programme at The Carter Centre in Atlanta, Georgia. In this article, McCoy writes that the electoral debates essentially came down to two themes: how much of a priority to put on fighting poverty, and how to define a country\'s relationship with the US and the global economy. Extremely close elections in Costa Rica and Mexico, and run-offs in Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador demonstrated that there are seriously divided countries in the region. Much of Latin America also shares deepening nationalism and an abhorrence of US unilateralism. What the new leaders across the board face is the dilemma of meeting the high expectations of frustrated citizens while navigating the real constraints of economic globalisation and weak state capacity and institutions. These constraints can draw a country together under strong leadership and well-organised interests with a national vision, or they can destabilise a country that is factionalised and lacks a sense of shared national identity and purpose. The post-election year of 2007 will determine which direction each will go.