Africa, Development & Aid, Headlines, Middle East & North Africa

EGYPT: Differences ‘Narrowing’ Over Nile Waters

Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa Al-Omrani

CAIRO, Aug 21 2009 (IPS) - Signs are emerging of some narrowing of differences over the sharing of Nile waters.

“When it comes to Nile-sharing, Egypt appears to be choosing the path of diplomacy and economic co-operation rather than conflict,” Hani Raslan, head of the department for Sudan and Nile Basin countries at the semi- official Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies told IPS.

“We have worked out all outstanding differences except one,” Ethiopian minister for water resources Asfaw Dingamo said Aug. 2 in Cairo, referring to the sensitive issue of water sharing between states of the Nile. “And I hope we can resolve this too in the coming six months.”

Dingamo’s comment, made at a press conference after a meeting with Egyptian counterpart Mohamed Nasreddin Allam, represented a notable reversal by Ethiopia. Previously, Ethiopia had spearheaded the campaign by upstream states against Egypt’s and Sudan’s “historical right” to Nile water as stipulated in earlier agreements.

Two water-sharing agreements signed in 1929 and 1959 give Egypt the right to consume 55.5 billion cubic metres of Nile water per year. The same treaties give neighbouring Sudan an annual allotment of 18.5 billion cubic metres.

The treaties also stipulate that no major water projects, such as dams or irrigation works, be undertaken in upstream countries without the permission of Egypt and Sudan.

But upstream countries complain that the agreements, signed while they were under colonial occupation by European powers, fail to secure their legitimate water rights.

From its primary source in the Great Lakes region of Central Africa, the Nile flows north for more than 6,500 kilometres before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea on Egypt’s Nile Delta. Along with Egypt, nine other African countries share the river: Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.

In an effort to reach a mutually acceptable system of water sharing, Nile river states have been trying to hammer out a new agreement, dubbed the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), since the late 1990s. Ethiopia, along with other Nile states, pushed for a revised agreement that does not grant Egypt and Sudan such a large share of Nile river water or require their permission to build upstream water projects.

Talks have been bogged down by the refusal of Egypt and Sudan to relinquish their allotment of Nile water.

“For Egypt, the Nile is the state; a threat to the river constitutes a threat to national security,” Ayman Shabaana, political science professor at Cairo University’s Institute for African Studies told IPS. “If Nile Basin states don’t acknowledge the water quotas laid down in the old treaties, Egypt and Sudan won’t sign the NBI.”

Shabaana said the Nile provides for more than 95 percent of the country’s total water consumption. “Meanwhile, some of the upstream countries depend on the river for as little as 5 percent of their water needs.”

The looming threat of water scarcity has fuelled Egypt’s reluctance to give up its longstanding share of Nile water. In 2000, average per capita water consumption in Egypt fell below 1,000 cubic metres per year, officially qualifying the country as a “water-scarce” state.

“Egypt’s per capita usage now ranges between 750 and 800 cubic metres, compared to an international average of 1,000 cubic metres,” said Raslan.

Two recent conferences have failed to settle the impasse.

In May, talks held in DRC capital Kinshasa broke down because Egypt’s and Sudan’s traditional allotments were not explicitly stated in the text of the proposed agreement. “We will not concede our historic share of Nile water,” Allam said at the time.

Water ministers met again in late July in the Egyptian coastal city Alexandria, where Egypt and Sudan reiterated their refusal to concede their historical water quotas. The meeting ended with Nile Basin countries granting Egypt and Sudan a six-month period to reach agreement on the issue or come up with an alternative arrangement.

The Alexandria conference did, however, see some upstream states softening their positions. “The DRC remains adamant in its refusal of Egypt’s demands, but Uganda, Ethiopia and Rwanda appeared to moderate their positions slightly,” said Raslan.

Dinagmo visited Cairo days later, where he expressed a new willingness to cooperate with Egypt to resolve the issue. Along with better relations, Dinagmo pointed to “much more Egyptian investment” in Ethiopia, noting that “some Egyptian investors are establishing factories here, along with potable water and electricity projects.”

Allam was quoted as saying Aug. 10 that his meeting with Dinagmo indicated “an unprecedented change in the Ethiopian position in Egypt’s favour.”

“Based on what was said at the Allam-Dinagmo meeting, it appears that Ethiopia is willing to shift its support to the Egyptian position in exchange for economic assistance and promises of investment,” said Shabaana.

Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif plans to visit Ethiopia in the second half of September after the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan.

Allam says Nazif’s trip would “confirm the beginning of strengthened relations between Egypt and Nile Basin states and prove that Egyptian- Ethiopian relations in particular are now at a high point.”

According to Raslan, Egyptian attempts to woo Ethiopia have already paid diplomatic dividends.

“After Egypt’s offer of financial assistance and investment, Ethiopia has noticeably moderated its position on water sharing,” he said. “Addis Ababa has even begun to play the role of mediator between Egypt and Sudan and upstream states like Congo, Kenya and Tanzania.”

Shabaana, however, says that Ethiopia is simply exploiting the Nile issue to extract gains from Egypt.

“Every couple of years, Ethiopia and the rest of the upstream states make a big fuss about the ‘inequality’ of the historical water-sharing agreements,” he said. “But this is only a ploy to coerce Egypt into granting them financial assistance and make investments.”