ASIA-DEVELOPMENT: Fast Growth Wreaking Havoc on Environment

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Oct 19 1995 (IPS) - Asia’s rapid economic growth is putting a great strain on the region’s environment, posing serious threats to public health and food production in the next century.

More than 30 economists and environmentalists made this warning at an international meeting on sustainable development held this week at the United Nations University in Tokyo.

By the year 2100, the world’s fastest growing region could face problems such as a rise in malaria cases, lack of water and a sharp drop in farm production due to acid rain resulting from high levels of carbon dioxide emissions, they said.

“Asia holds the key to stabilising the global environment,” said Tsuneyuki Morita of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan’s most prestigious environmental research organisation.

The rush to industrialise has sharply increased energy demands in the region, he said. China, which has recorded annual growth rates of at least 10 percent in recent years, is predicted to become the top emitter of carbon dioxide by 2025.

India, where economic activity is projected to reach similar levels by the next century, is expected to become the fourth largest emitter, surpassing Japan.

As a result, the Asia-Pacific region’s share of global carbon dioxide emissions, currently standing at 25 percent, will reach 36 percent by 2025 and 50 percent by the end of the next century, Morita told the three-day meeting that ended Wednesday.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion are largely responsible for changes in the world’s climate and comprise 80 percent of total anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Morita’s conclusions were based on the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) which is used by the Japanese research institute to simulate global environmental change.

The AIM uses the computer simulation method to examine the risks of future paths of development based on previous scientific data and to assess policy options for stabilising the global climate. Experts say it can also be applied to local pollution, acid precipitation and water resource management.

Morita called on Asian countries to seriously consider measures to bring down their CO2 emissions up to 1990 levels.

But this target is not enough, he stressed. The world must aim to reduce CO2 emissions by one percent per year in the next 100 years in order to reach the ultimate goal of stabilising the global climate.

The most effective means of arriving at these targets is to attain energy efficiency through the development of power sources that do not emit the harmful gases, such as solar and nuclear energy.

Morita called for increased cooperation between countries to minimise the economic losses expected to accompany the move to control CO2 emissions. Experts predict an economic decline of between one and three percent globally by 2025.

Cooperation between China and Japan until the year 2020, for example, will mean GDP cost savings of up to 140 billion dollars annually, according to AIM estimates.

“GDP gain through successful global implementation of such cooperation would save 460 billion dollars annually through 2020,” said Morita.

Jyoti Parikh of the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research in India said environmental priorities in developing countries are regulated by the fact that more than 1.2 billion people live below the poverty line.

Poor people in India, he said, depend very little on the market and therefore have to rely on the environment to get what the market cannot provide them due to their low purchasing power.

The urban growth brought about by the country’s economic development has aggravated the water shortage problem faced by the rural poor, he added.

Parikh said the poor who depend on rivers and streams have found themselves competing with the growing number of urban households for supplies of drinking water. Industries get water from the same sources, where they later dump sewage and effluents.

Hoe Sung Lee from South Korea commented that developing countries do not want to set similar environmental targets with the rich nations and even resent such moves.

“Setting targets that have been supported mainly in rich countries politicises the issue. Developing countries are facing not only the issue of economic development but must also tackle environmental pollution. Let them adopt their own targets,” he urged.

U.S. economist James Edmonds said countries should suspend moves to control emissions in the next 25 years and concentrate instead on the development of safe renewable technologies, technology transfer and the adoption of other counter measures such as taxes and better enforcement of environmental standards.

Delegates to the Tokyo meeting agreed to hold regular discussions on the issue of sustainable development with the aim of adopting concrete measures that are both economically and environmentally viable.

ASIA-DEVELOPMENT: Fast Growth Wreaking Havoc on Environment

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Oct 19 1995 (IPS) - Asia’s rapid economic growth is putting a great strain on the region’s environment, posing serious threats to public health and food production in the next century.
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