JAPAN: Hashimoto Takes the Helm, Now he Must Deliver – And Soon

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Jan 11 1996 (IPS) - Ryutaro Hashimoto Thursday took charge of the Japanese government riding on a wave of public confidence in his ability to lift the country out of its current economic gloom. Now comes the hard part — delivering the goods.

“Coming on the heels of the uncharismatic (Tomiichi) Murayama, the colourful Hashimoto has ushered in a much needed wave of fresh air in Japan,” commented Robert Orr, a U.S. expert on Japanese affairs, and a professor at Temple University in Tokyo.

But analysts say that Hashimoto, elected prime minister by a parliamentary vote, faces a tough time ahead, particularly with elections constitutionally due within the next 18 months.

The public expects that the 58-year-old leader of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the dominant partner in a three-party coalition, can quickly guide the country out its worst economic slump in decades — but this will not be easy.

Unemployment has risen, hitting a post-war high of 3.4 per cent in November — that is 2.8 million people from Japan’s labour force are out of work, the highest since 1953.

Hashimoto also has to push a hugely unpopular bill through the Japanese Diet (parliament) committing the government to dip into public funds to bail out several Japanese banks and housing loan agencies mired in more than 800 billion dollars of bad debts.

And while his experience in government — having held the posts of many ministries including finance in 1989 and more recently trade and industry — would suggest the country is in capable hands, it is still unclear what economic policies he will pursue.

He has previously endorsed his predecessor’s plans to deregulate the economy and diminish the role of Japan’s powerful bureaucracy, yet he has over the years built up close ties with the the bureacratic machinery that has opposed deregulation.

“Hashimoto belongs to the old school of thought which is convinced that Japan’s economic role was achieved as a result of the active role the state played in the economy,” explained Orr.

On the employment front, he is likely to kickstart capital intensive projects like in the construction industry, to generate employment — even if it is short-term — ahead of the elections.

And he faces diplomatic problems as well — one in particular that he has inherited from his predecessor Tomiichi Murayama who resigned last week — and others that may be of his own making.

The touchy issue he has inherited surrounds the continuing presence of the U.S. military on the south-western Japanese island of Okinawa. There is growing opposition to the presence of the U.S. forces following the rape last year of an Okinawa schoolgirl, allegedly by three U.S. troops who are now on trial.

With Murayama as prime minister, when Japan hosts U.S. President Bill Clinton in April, the two leaders were gunning to announce an extension of the U.S. presence the current Tokyo-Washington Security Treaty that forms the backbone of Asia’s defence.

Hashimoto is also likely to accept the continuing presence of the troops, but because he advocates a Japan which is strong and independent and free of the tentacles of the United States, there may be some revisions.

Japan must listen to Washington but does not necessarily need to do what it says, he told reporters after he was elevated to hero status by standing his ground against the United States in last year’s auto exports trade dispute.

But his nationalistic favour also has a not so attractive side, particularly when viewed from the standpoint of neighbouring countries still smarting from World War II fall out.

Hashimoto has been reluctant to apologise for Japan’s past aggressive policies in the region during the war years. He is a former head of the conservative Japan Association for Bereaved Families of the War Dead, which boasts more than a million members.

Ingnoring China’s and South Korea’s sensitivity to the practice, Hashimoto continues to pay his respect to the war dead at Yasukuni Shrine, where six Japanese war criminals are buried.

“…we just hope that Hashimoto and his cabinet ministers do not make controversial comments,” a foreign ministry official was quoted saying in a Japanese daily newspaper Thursday.

Economics and diplomacy aside, Hashimoto can expect to face renewed calls from the parliamentary Opposition for an early election.

“It is inconceivable that the public is not consulted on these important issues that concern them,” charged Ichiro Ozawa, head of New Frontier Party, making reference to the leadership change. With Hashimoto having the full backing of the coalition, Ozawa stood no chance in Thursday’s run-off vote for the premiership.

Still, the Japanese media has been reporting squabbling within the Left-Right coalition, which includes Murayama’s Socialist Party.

“We will see new alignments, the birth of new parties,” predicts Minoru Tada, a politicial commentator. “Things are very uncertain right now.”