IRAQ-UNITED NATIONS: Sanctions, Oil, Hunger

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis- Dilip Hiro

BAGHDAD, Feb 5 1996 (IPS) - Iraq opens talks with U.N. Secretary- General Boutros Boutros-Ghali Tuesday, on modalities of implementing U.N. Security Council resolution 986, passed in April 1995, which allows Baghdad to sell one billion dollars worth of oil abroad every three months.

There is no guarantee that the negotiations will lead to an agreement. But the fact that Iraq is seriously exploring the possibility of accepting the resolution signifies a dramatic change in its stance. Up to now President Saddam Hussein had rejected Resolution 986 on several counts, the most important being that it violated Iraq’s sovereignty.

The thrust of the Iraqi negotiations with the U.N. secretary- general, who is charged with overseeing the execution of Council resolutions, will be to find ways by which Baghdad can benefit from Resolution 986 in practice while manitaining its opposition to it in principle – an equivalent of “acceptance under protest” or “acceptance without prejudice (to future stance)” in legal terms.

In other words, the Iraqi delegation will call on Boutros-Ghali to use his discretion in the implementation of the Security Council resolution, and soften some of its rigid provisions. The long and fairly comprehensive resolution lays out strict guidelines.

Cash received by Baghdad for oil sales will have to be deposited in a U.N. account. Priorities for spending these funds are specified.

Certain portions will be used first to reimburse the United Nations for expenses incurred while searching and destroying Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction and the research and production facilities. Also, for installing and maintenance of a monitoring system and the Compensation Fund for those governments, corporations and individuals entitled to compensation from Iraq for its invasion and occupation of Kuwait in 1990.

Only the reminder – about a third of the total of one billion dollars every quarter – will be available to Baghdad for the purchase of food and medicine. But the distribution of food so purchased will have to be done under U.N. supervision.

Such humiliating conditions are clear violation of the sovereignty of Iraq. But, argue the backers of Resolution 986, the issue of the sovereignty of a defeated country like Iraq is academic. In any case, they maintain, Iraq has already made several compromises on this matter.

Having a U.N. monitoring force of 100-plus inspectors scattered around the country is an example, they say.

Saddam Hussein’s current posture is evidently caused by the threat of a fully-fledged famine likely to strike his country in late spring and early summer. Second, he has realised that since President Bill Clinton will not moderate his hard line on the U.N. economic embargo againsat Baghdad dyuring an election year, there was no prospect of the easing or lifting of the sanctions in 1996.

Due to lack of fertilisers and pesticides, and spare parts for agricultural machinery, the spring harvest in Iraq is widely expected to be poor. So far local production has been able to sustain the food rationing system, and helped most people to survive.

A sharp decline in local output will mean dangerous erosiion of the rationing system on which the bulk of the population is dependent. So far large scale deaths – estimated by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation to be 560,000 since the imposition of UN economic sanctions in August 1990 – have been limited to children under five.

But were the rationing system to fail to deliver food regularly at the current, inadequate rate, malnutrition will strike about a quarter of the total Iraqi population of 19 million, especially pregnant women and the elderly of both sexes.

Announcement of the start of the negotaitons was made by the ruling Revolutionary Command Council on Jan. 20. It had an uplifting effect on the populace.

On the next weekly shopping day, Thursday, the capital’s food market, the Shorja souk, was so packed vehicular traffic came to a halt. Music was played, men danced and women distributed sweets to spectators.

By the end of January, prices of rice, sugar and edible oil had dropped by up to 50 percent. Iraqis who had been storing U.S. dollars, began selling them. The value of Iraqi dinar improved from ID 2620 to one dollar to ID 2000 in the open market.

Even though the official rate was fixed at ID 800 to one dollar, there was such a rush to get rid of the US dollars that local banks often ran out of Iraqi dinars.

The inflow of US dolllars into official channels will enable Baghdad to buy sorely needed food and medicine.

The local media have been playing up the prospect of Iraqi oil – whose petroleum reserves are second only to Saudi Arabia’s – flowing into the international market once again. And the oil market has already discounted the infusion of Iraqi petroleum. Price of Brent crude oil, a benchmark, has fallen to about 16 dollars a barrel from 18 dollars in early January.

With hopes raised so high among Iraqis, President Saddam Hussein cannot afford to let his people down. The United States, the single most important member of the U.N. Security council, has apprarently taken note of this. So it is unlikely to moderate its insistence that Resolution 986 be implemented in spirit and letter.

In the end, therefore, it is most likely that the Iraqi delegation will at most achieve some cosmetic concessions, if any at all. But to the suffering Iraqi people this will not matter very mucn. After all, sheer survival comes first, all else follows.