ARGENTINA-POLITICS: Black September for Menem

By Marcela Valente Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, Sep 12 1996 (IPS) - These are dark days for Argentina’s President Carlos Menem – beset by high unemployment and rising industrial unrest together with a 36 hour general strike planned for Sep. 26.

Opposition politicians called for a noisy demonstration Thursday asking citizens to beat on sauecepans and switch off electical power for five minutes.

Menem’s problems centre on the nation’s sluggish economy which followed his success in taming hyper-inflation accompanied by a period of increased consumption and production from 1991 to 1994. The hefty backlash from the Mexican economic crisis, however, slowed the pace of reactivation last year and pushed unemployment to a hefty 17.1 percent of the workforce.

Last year, Argentina’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 4.4 percent after four successive years of growth at an average of seven percent. The timid recovery which had emerged in the first half of 1996 is now threatened by fiscal adjustments which should be approved by Congress.

While Mexico is recovering and again attracting investors, in Argentina the fall of former economy minister, Domingo Cavallo, in late July, and the adjustments promised by his successor in August has scared them off despite his support for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) policies.

In this context of a productive paralysis, shrinking consumption, expensive credit and high unemployment, the Argentine “miracle” economy of recent years has disappeared into a sea of social unrest.

Menem now appears to have achieved an undesired “miracle” in uniting the main opposition forces – the Radical Civic Union, the centre-left Frente Pais Solidario and the Nuevo Dirigencia (New Leadership), made up of the former members of the ruling Justicialist Party.

These three parties, which attracted 80 percent of the vote in the Buenos Aires local elections in June, were behind the surprise protest Thursday which called for a a five minute blackout nationwide accompanied by the beating of saucepans.

“We will participate in all peaceful protests which serve to make the government understand that it no longer has the popular support it though it could keep counting on, and which must change,” said the leader of the Radical Civic Union, Rodolfo Terragno.

The protest also had the support of the Mercantile Business Activity Co-ordinator, who complained of a drop in sales of between 10 and 17 percent lasat month. This fall-off has reached crisis point in the sector, which has seen the closure of 38,000 small businesses since 1991.

Of greater concern to Menem’s political future is the repeated agreement between the opposition in Congress and the legislative assembly of the city of Buenos Aires – which is made up mostly of opposition members and has been in permanent session for nearly two months.

“The government has started to worry because the opposition, which they had kept firmly beaten and divided for several years, is now raising its head again,” said political columnist Eduardo Kooy, in the Buenos Aires daily ‘Clarin.’

This same awakening opposition phenomenon has also occurred in the General Workers Confederation (CGT), the biggest union group, historically identified with the Justicialist Party, which will hold a 36 hour strike and street demonstration from Sep. 26.

The strike – the first sign of a desire to break with the ruling party – was called to protest against the adjustment programme, high unemployment and the official initiative to make labour legislation more flexible and eliminate benefits, like redundancy payments, established more than 50 years ago.

The CGT has called just three strikes during Menem’s seven years in government, compared with the 14 that occurred during the tenure of his predecessor, Raul Alfonsin who held office 1983-89.

A strike last month was so successful it surpassed even the CGT’s own expectations. As a result of this, and with the fear that the trade unions or workers movements in the opposition front might end up leading the protests against Argentina’s economic the model, the CGT called for a bigger show of strength this month.

Menem has stated neither Thursday’s blackout nor the general strike would force him to change the direction of the economic model, but with latest opinion polls giving him a popularity rating of barely 18 percent, these are worrying times the Argentine President who still has three years in office.