POLITICS-JAPAN: Iraqi Crisis Tests Foreign Policy Mettle

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Feb 18 1998 (IPS) - “The U.S. is war-crazy. Japan is pacifist,” read a placard held aloft by protesters in front of the American embassy here a few days ago.

That sentiment underlines growing disquiet in Japan, a traditional U.S. ally, over the country’s usual support for the American government’s position on many foreign policy issues, the latest of which is the Iraqi crisis.

Japan’s backing for the U.S., a bulwark of security for the country since its defeat in the Pacific War, led it to contribute 13 billion U.S. dollars for the American-led coalition against Iraq in 1990.

Barred by its Constitution from dispatching troops for military involvement overseas, Tokyo’s action at the time was also to silence U.S. criticism for not doing enough for peace in the Gulf.

This time, observers say, such generous contributions and checkbook diplomacy will be slow in coming despite Japan’s own interests in ensuring that oil supplies flow smoothly from the Middle East.

Part of the reason lies in economic recession and more open public opposition here to backing U.S. plans for air strikes to force Iraq to open suspected sites for chemical and biological weapons to U.N. inspection.

But “the other important aspect is that Japan is slowly maturing,” explained professor Ryoji Tateyama, who teaches international relations at the Defense Academy and is an expert on the Middle East.

In short, Japan’s stance on U.S. efforts to build support for military action against Iraq is emerging as a test of the independence of Tokyo’s own foreign policy.

“Tokyo is walking the tightrope between its lopsided relationship with Washington, and a desire to be ease away from the constraints that come with this dependence,” Tateyama added. “A new aggression in the Middle East might be a crucial test for its future.”

Thus, analysts say that while the Japanese government is likely to lend its support to a possible bombing of Iraq in the end, it will be a reluctant Japan that will go along.

Like other Asian countries, they note that the situation today is different from the 1990 conflict that came after Iraq occupied neighbouring Kuwait. “The United States can rely on support from Japan but it won’t be as forthcoming as in 1990,” Tateyama said.

Publicly, the Japanese government has leaned toward supporting the U.S. government’s actions in the Gulf. Earlier, Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto called on the U.S. to refrain from any attack during the ongoing Winter Olympics in Nagano, Japan.

After Hashimoto’s meetings with U.S ambassador to the United Nations Bill Richardson here on Feb. 13, a joint U.S.-Japan statement said: “Japan shared the view of the United States that a diplomatic solution based on full Iraqi compliance with all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions is the best solution, and that all options remain on the table.”

Officials from both sides interpreted this to mean Japan’s backing of a U.S.-led military attack, if diplomatic efforts fail. U.N. secretary general Kofi Annan is going to Iraq within the week in a final effort to avert a military conflict.

Local media noted that Japan had again proven to its commitment to the Japan-U.S. alliance, but Tateyama says the wording of Tokyo’s support remains “vague”.

“For example, the prime minister has also said he highly valued U.S. diplomatic efforts and also stated the need for a new Security Council resolution to legitimise an attack on Iraq,” he explained.

“These statements are indications of an extreme reluctance, even among the highest circles, to support an attack which could have terrible consequences in the whole region,” Tateyama said.

Japan’s reluctance is also aided by its deepening ties with the Middle East. Japan imports 82 percent of its petroleum from the Middle East, most of it coming from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

In recent years, Japan has carefully nurtured ties with oil- exporting Arab states. In November 1997, Hashimoto signed a new cooperation pact with Saudi Arabia on trade, cultural and education ties.

A year ago, Japanese peacekeeping forces entered the Golan Heights to help maintaining peace efforts between Israel and Syria.

In a published article, Osamu Miyata of Shizuoka University says Japan, unfettered by pressure from Israel as well as the U.S., needs to project policies towards the Middle East that are different from Washington and more in line with its own thinking and interests.

Already, Miyata explained, there is growing sentiment that eight years after the 1990 Gulf War, it is time for Japan to “assert” its differences before the U.S.

Indeed, television commentators have refrained from open support for the U.S. this time, preferring to illustrate the current Iraqi standoff as a war between the U.S. and Iraq — and not an international effort like the 1990 conflict.

At the same time, Japan clearly cannot afford to come into direct confrontation with the United States, as France, Russia and even China to a certain extent have done.

Long-term defense ties with the U.S., crafted after Japan’s defeat in the Pacific War, have made the country home to the largest number of American troops stationed in the Asia-Pacific, and the U.S. most reliable ally in the region.

Its ties with the U.S. are Tokyo’s most important bilateral relationship, making it difficult for Japan to oppose Washington especially in the event of war, defense writer Naoki Usui said.