POPULATION: Population Growing in Poor Nations

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

WASHINGTON, May 13 1998 (IPS) - Developing countries presently account for 98 percent of the world’s population growth , according to a report released Wednesday by the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), a Washington research group.

PRB’s “1998 World Population Data Sheet” also said that some 90 percent of the world’s young people who were entering or about to enter their childbearing years were residents of poor nations.

The result was that countries which could least afford a rapidly rising population had the highest population growth rates – and the gap between rich and poor nations in population growth rates was increasing sharply, the report said.

PRB put the total global population in 1998 at about 5.926 billion, of whom less than 1.18 billion live in western developed countries and 4.747 billion live in developing nations.

This year, roughly 137 million babies will be born worldwide, only 13.3 million of whom will be residents of developed countries. That meant an average of 0.4 newborns are born every second in wealthy nations and 3.9 infants are born every second to mothers in poor countries.

By contrast, an average of roughly 0.4 people die in the West every second, but only 1.3 people expire elsewhere on the planet.

Population growth rates are highest in sub-Saharan Africa where the “total fertility rate” (TFR) – the average number of children women have during their child-bearing years – is nearly six live birth per woman.

While the TFR was expected to decline in the region over the long run, according to the report, a disproportionate percentage of Africans were now just reaching child-bearing years. Forty-five percent of the population was 15 years or younger, and the resulting population momentum will automatically increase the population regardless of the birth rate, the PRB report said.

Altogether, there now were more than two billion young people under the age of 20 in developing countries, according to the report. Early child-bearing often leads to higher lifetime fertility and thus to speeding population growth by shortening the generations.

Each year, 18 percent of women 15 to 19 years old give birth in Central Africa; five percent in Southeast Asia, and only one percent in Western Europe, according to the report.

Today, eight African countries – Nigeria, Ethiopia, Congo, South Africa, Tanzania, Sudan Kenya and Uganda – rank among the world’s 50 most populous nations. If current trends held, there would be 11 African countries in the top 50 by the year 2025, as Ghana, Mozambique and Cameroon join their ranks.

By the same year, China would have 1.56 billion people – about 320 million more than today; and India would have 1.44 billion, about 250 million more than in 1998. The United States and Indonesia were expected to retain their third and fourth rankings, with 335 million and 275 million, respectively.

Pakistan, currently number seven, would likely edge out Brazil as number five, with a population of almost 260 million -roughly the same as the United States today. And Nigeria, sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous nation, would catapult from its number ten spot today past Russia, Japan, and Bangladesh, to take seventh place. according to the report.

Russia’s population, currently ranked sixth at 147 million, would drop to 135 million by the year 2025, according to the report, while Mexico, now number 11 would move up to the ninth spot by then with a total population of 140 million.

At the beginning of the century, the report noted, about 1.6 billion people inhabited the Earth. By 1950, that number had become 2.5 billion. By next year, however, the global population would reach six billion. That unprecedented growth in population would likely be duplicated during the first half of the 21st century, according to PRB.

In 1950, 80 percent of all population growth in the world took place in the developing countries. Today, that percent has climbed to 98.

For now, however, the focus in population rate reduction should be on those children and adolescents who are entering child- bearing age, says the report. Small differences in their child- bearing would result in very large differences in future population size.

If women would average about two children during their lifetime, world population would rise to 9.4 billion by 2050 and 11 billion in the following century. If, however, the average rose to 2.5, the effects would be dramatic. World population would hit 11.2 billion in 2050 and, theoretically, would reach 27 billion one century later.

But if fertility fell to about 1.7 children per women, population would go into decline in the 21st century, peaking at 7.7 billion in 2050 and then dropping to 3.6 billion by 2150, according to the report.