POLITICS-KOSOVO: Serb Pullout Poses New Questions

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 27 1998 (IPS) - The withdrawal of Yugoslavian Army and Serb security forces from Kosovo probably has delayed the threat of any attack on Serbia for now, but has left the United Nations wondering what to do next.

Until Tuesday, both the U.N. Security Council and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) appeared poised to give the green light for NATO air strikes against Belgrade as punishment for the crackdown on the Albanian population of Kosovo.

But with U.S. and U.N. sources confirming a substantial withdrawal of Yugoslav troops Tuesday, all sides waited for the next step in the cat-and-mouse struggle over Kosovo.

“There is an effort to reconfigure the (Yugoslav) security forces in a way that we truly hope will reduce the violence substantially,” said special U.S. mediator Christopher Hill.

“I think there are indications that they are pulling out,” added U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Now the question is “whether they have pulled out in sufficient numbers, and removed their equipment” in compliance with Security Council demands for a withdrawal from Kosovo.

Given the divisions in the Security Council – where Russia and China have opposed the use of force over Kosovo – it is likely that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has done just enough to avoid punishment – at least for now.

On Saturday, a fractious Security Council passed a resolution that paved the way for NATO troops to use force if there was no significant pullout from Kosovo by today. Even then, signals from Moscow and Beijing muted any language that explicitly authorising military action.

The resolution mentioned only that “action may be needed to ensure (the) safety and security” of missions attempting to verify the Yugoslav withdrawal, and fell short of a clear threat to use force.

Nevertheless, even as U.S. officials confirmed Tuesday that some 90 percent of Serb security forces were leaving their positions in Kosovo, NATO remained on alert, with some 400 warplanes still ready to strike at Yugoslavia if unrest in Kosovo continues.

“We have instructed our military to remain prepared,” NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana said after officials from NATO’s 16 member states met in Brussels. “We will be ready to use force” if necessary, Solana added, but he did not specify whether there is any cause to do so now.

Essentially, NATO has dropped the Tuesday deadline for air strikes and left in place a more open-ended and ambiguous threat, which could result in strikes if Milosevic reneges on commitments to end the crackdown on separatists in Kosovo.

That murky policy is a reflection of the wariness of many Western states in dealing with the Yugoslav leader, who similarly made and broke peace commitments repeatedly during the 1991-95 wars in Croatia and Bosnia-Hercegovina.

The United States expressed wariness as U.S. officials voiced guarded satisfaction with the pullback. “As we see this substantial compliance…we need to send the message that Milosevic needs to stay in compliance.” said White House spokesman Joe Lockhart.

Yet the U.N. Security Council and Western powers are divided on what to do next in Kosovo. Washington and London are eager to keep the pressure on Belgrade, since both governments doubt that Kosovo will remain at peace once the threat of international action is lifted.

On the other hand, the difficulties in prodding Russia, China and, to a lesser extent, France over the case for military action shows the uphill challenge that the British and U.S. governments face in justifying a strike, absent any further provocation from Belgrade.

In recent weeks, Milosevic has played a more moderate role, signing an agreement brokered by U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke that would pave the way for a return to autonomy for Kosovo, 90 percent of whose population is ethnic Albanian. But U.N. officials warn that, following attacks on the separatist Kosovo Liberation Army over the past few months, some 300,000 Kosovars have been driven from their homes and remain in danger as winter weather looms over the province.

Annan said that, following his dispatch of an independent team to Kosovo, he now will decide “whether I need to establish an international presence (in Kosovo) or if we can provide reports to the Council in some other way”.

Diplomats here believe that the next step forward could be for a small U.N. diplomatic mission to monitor whether the cessation of fighting in Kosovo really takes hold – or whether this week’s pullback is only one manouevre in a larger battle.