POLITICS: New Generation Arab Leaders Share A Common Dilemma

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Sanjay Upadhya

DUBAI, Jul 30 1999 (IPS) - For the third time in six months, the Arab world has been debating how the death of a long-ruling monarch would affect its future.

The passing away of Jordan’s King Hussein (in February), Bahrain’s Emir Sheikh Isa (in March) and Morocco’s King Hassan (July 23), all saw the Arab world go through phases of assertiveness, setbacks, and soul-searching.

In a key sense, Hassan’s successor, King Mohammed VI, shares the dilemma facing the new Jordanian and Bahraini monarchs. How to proceed with their fathers pro-Western policies at a time when public opinion on Arab streets is increasingly turning against the West.

The late Arab monarchs acted as intermediaries between their region and the United States during the East-West rivalry of the Cold War.

Unlike Hussein, Morocco’s monarch played the role of a catalyst for peace largely from behind the scenes. He counselled the White House on Middle East policy from the days of John F. Kennedy’s presidentship in the early sixties.

Two decades ago Hassan helped bring Egypt and Israel together and sign a peace accord – the first between the Jewish state and an Arab state. That resulted in Egypt’s ostracisation in the Arab world and it was again Hassan who was instrumental in rehabilitating Cairo.

Morocco’s longest-reigning Arab monarch also played a key role in bringing the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) into the mainstream of Middle East peace negotiations.

In the 1990s, while Hussein made efforts for the political integration of Israel in the region, Hassan sought to anchor the changed relations with Tel Aviv in greater economic engagement in the aftermath of the Oslo peace accords.

Hassan handled his dealings with Israel very adroitly. He refused to meet former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu twice after Israel went back on the pledges made to the Palestinians.

The convergence of world leaders on Rabat for Hassan’s funeral served to reaffirm his international stature. But those same images have also raised concerns that this retrospective review of the late Moroccan king fits into what is seen in the region as a pattern of defining Arab states and leaders by their ability to align themselves with the West and, more specifically, make peace with Israel.

“(Hassan’s) death challenges us again in the Arab world to sort out the person from the wider national condition and to identify more diligently and accurately how far individual leaders were able to lead their people towards a better life,” says Jordanian political analyst Rami G. Khouri.

Here Hassan may have left some instructions. He tried to espouse Western-driven modernisation without turning its back on Morocco’s ancient traditions. If he was impressed by certain Western policies, his supporters say, he tried to adapt some of them locally.

The late Moroccan king planned the Arab Maghreb Union, linking his own country, Algeria, Libya, Mauritania and Tunisia. The organisation was conceived along the lines of the European Union as an instrument of collective prosperity. But it failed to take off in large part because of the conflict in Western Sahara that divided Morocco and Algeria.

At a time when the Arab world is trying to reclaim its history from “an unjust West”, many people would expect Morocco to lead an Arab-wide discussion on ways of promoting good governance and balancing political and socio-economic decision-making.

Morocco, having notched up some successes under Hassan, is qualified to lead the discussion. Despite high illiteracy, a 20 dollar billion foreign debt, poverty and urban stress, and the staggering political and economic costs of the lingering Western Sahara conflict, Morocco has shown remarkable stability. Critics, on the other hand, insist that this stability is a product of an authoritarian regime.

Hassan began a process of political devolution that resulted in the formation of a government by his long-time opponent Abderrahman Youssoufi.

He helped Morocco become a net agricultural exporter, and was an active advocate of economic liberalisation.

After the customary 40-day mourning period, Morocco will try to get as normal as it can get without the man that dominated the country for 38 years. Meanwhile, the people in the Middle East and North Africa are trying to measure up the new king, and some

have already fixed the standards.

“Our leaders have done more in their lives than shake hands with Israeli counterparts,” says Jordanian political analyst Khouri. “The Western mass media will not tell this story; are we prepared to do so?”