SECURITY-JAPAN: Jittery Over North Korea, East Asian Tensions

By Suvendrini Kakuchi Reprint | | Print |

Suvendrini Kakuchi

TOKYO, Aug 5 1999 (IPS) - Japan is on tenterhooks over reports that North Korea is preparing for another missile test soon — just one of several flashpoints adding to security tensions in East Asia these days.

Apart from concern that Pyongyang would soon test-fire a new, more powerful missile, Tokyo, like the rest of Asia, is watching China-Taiwan tensions and Beijing’s test-firing of a new long- range missile on Aug 2.

While Beijing’s firing of a ground-to-ground missile was a muscle-flexing move apparently aimed at Taiwan, it also added to the region’s fears about East Asian insecurity.

This is because the test-firing, announced by the Chinese state- run news agency Xinhua in a one-line statement, tends to undercut international pressure to stop Pyongyang from embarking on a second missile test.

Concern about Pyongyang’s plans is causing new ripples of anxiety in Japan, whose territory a North Korean test missile flew over on Aug 31 last year before falling into the Pacific Ocean.

In its new White Paper on defense made public last Tuesday, the Japanese government identified North Korea as one of its most important security challenges — reflecting Japanese’ growing fears of a military threat after 50 years of peace after World War II.

The paper says the threat is “very real” this time, even as North Korea watchers talk about several dates within the next months when Pyongyang could test fire a Taepo Dong-2 missile believed to have a range of up to 6,000 km.

The “missile development concerns not just Asia, but the international community,” the defense report said.

According to Defense Agency Chief Hosei Norota who was quizzed in the Japanese Diet last week, Aug 15 could be the earliest date for a missile test, as that is the date on which North Korea celebrates its liberation from Japanese rule.

Norota added that the latest dates for a North Korean launch could be Aug 31, the date the North launched its missile test last year, or Sept 9, which is the 51st anniversary of the country’s founding.

Alarming statements in Japanese newspapers point to fears that a missile might strike Japan’s nuclear power plants. Fifteen of the country’s 53 reactors are located in relatively sparsely populated areas.

Likewise, North Korean spy ships were reported to have entered Japanese waters in Western Japan, home to most of Japan”s nuclear reactors. In fact, local media reports say, four dead men in North Korean military uniforms drifted ashore at two locations in the Sea of Japan coast between December and January this year.

Japan’s worries about North Korea’s missile programme has already had far-reaching consequences on Tokyo’s defense capabilities — and tamed traditional reluctance about developing the country’s military might since after the Pacific War.

Tokyo has reacted by beefing up its defense programme, since August last year when it was caught off balance by the earlier North Korean missile test.

“This event deeply disturbed the Japanese, many of whom realised for the first time that the US could never protect them entirely from the inscrutable rogues in Pyongyang,” Robert Madsen of Stanford University’s Asia-Pacific Research Centre observed in a written commentary.

Apart from increased participation with the U.S. missile programme and a greater role for its Self-Defense Forces, Tokyo has announced plans to develop reconnaissance satellites by 2002 that will expand its intelligence-gathering capabilities in Asia.

The defense white paper also says spy satellites should be launched to keep watch over North Korea’s missile development.

In July, media reported that Japan’s Air Self Defense Forces conducted a secret study on launching an air raid against a missile base in Rodong, on North Korea’s eastern coast. The study assumed that the Self-Defense Forces would mount a raid without support from US forces in Japan.

The Japanese government contends that North Korea is angry over Tokyo’s decision taken last August after the first missile test, to suspend funds to Pyongyang for the development of light-water reactors as part of a deal to discourage its nuclear programme.

Japan resumed its commitment to extend interest-free loans last October, but bilateral dialogue between the two countries has not been going smoothly.

Now, public fears about another possible missile test is also putting pressure on the government to threaten to freeze its funds again in the wake of a new attack.

Japan has also drawn up a set of tougher sanctions such as a ban on remittances of funds should North Korea go ahead with another missile test.

The ‘Yomiuri Shimbun’, Japan’s leading daily, said Wednesday that public support for strengthening Japan’s security now stands at an all-time high — with close to 70 percent of those polled agreeing with this move.

Those surveyed named North Korea as the biggest threat to the country, saying it was capable of launching an attack on Japan.

But at the same time, Japan’s moves toward greater self- sufficiency in defense might have complicated side effects, such as suspicions from neighbours who have not forgotten Tokyo’s adventurism in World War II.

Already, some South Koreans point out that while it is understandable that Japan reacts by strengthening its military capabilities, such a move is inevitably worrisome to others.

“These Japanese ‘defensive moves’ are now a new source of concern as we believe the projects will make Japan a military power again with striking sophisticated capabilities,” the ‘Korea Herald’ said on Aug 1.

“The Japanese should be more sensitive to the worries of their neighbours. Many Koreans and Chinese still feel threatened by a rebirth of Japanese militarism and nationalism,” it added.