POLITICS-YUGOSLAVIA: Milosevic Increases His Hold On Power

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Jul 11 2000 (IPS) - Changes in the federal constitution of Yugoslavia, adopted at a hurriedly called session of federal parliament last week, have a double effect in the country that is probably facing another war on its soil.

The constitutional amendments, passed by the Yugoslav assembly, pave the way for President Slobodan Milosevic to seek re-election when his term expires next year thereby concentrating power into the hands of the Yugoslav president while reducing Montenegro’s status.

Yugoslavia was once a federation of Balkan republics. It now consists of the tiny, pro-western republic of Montenegro and the larger, more dominant, Serbia.

The amendments also includes changes in how parliaments upper house is elected making it harder for Montenegrin members of Parliament to get elected.

The amendments include the direct election of deputies into the upper chamber of the Yugoslav parliament. The upper chamber includes 20 deputies from Serbia and 20 from Montenegro. Prior to the amendments, these were elected by the parliaments of both republics.

Under the new system, Montenegrin candidates do not stand much of a chance of being elected as their republic only has about 650 000 people compared to Serbia’s 7.5 million.

The Montenegro government has slammed the amendments and has stepped up the pace towards attaining independence from Yugoslavia.

Prime Minister, Milo Djukanovic, has said Montenegro will soon adopt laws that will bring about independence. But analysts say the country has thus far refrained from declaring full independence fearing possible armed conflict with Serbia.

“This (the amendments) finally makes Milosevic’s dream come true,” Belgrade analyst, Bratislav Grubacic, told IPS. “His ambition of keeping the power is fulfilled, as he got around the one-term restriction of the post.”

MPs of Milosevic’s Socialist party described the changes as “the greatest possible form of democracy”, as the ‘one-man-one- vote principle’ has been introduced.

The fact that Serbia has millions of voters compared to Montenegro’s several hundred thousand, they say, is irrelevant.

The upper chamber of federal parliament was made out of 20 MPs coming from parliaments of Serbia and Montenegro. This provided a balance of decision, as both republics were represented equally. Any decision of federal parliament was valid only when approved by the upper house.

With the direct elections, any 20 MPs from Montenegro can be chosen and they will not represent Montenegro’s parliament.

“With the new system, the position of Montenegro has been downgraded to the point of no influence,” says Slobodan Vucetic, former Supreme Court judge.

Vucetic was expelled from his post earlier this year due to his continuous criticism of Milosevic’s authoritarian regime. “With the original constitution being ruined, there is a chance that Montenegro will try to reach independence from Yugoslavia,” he added.

Montenegro’s president Djukanovic is at odds with Milosevic. Under Djukanovic, Montenegro has increasingly distanced itself from Belgrade.

It accuses Milosevic of authoritarian rule and total international isolation of FRY. Montenegro has already taken several steps towards independence and controls parts of its border to Albania and Croatia.

In the past, Djukanovic has warned that if Montenegro lost its equal position with Serbia in FRY, a referendum on independence could be held.

Similar referendums in Croatia and Bosnia provoked bloody wars resulting in the disintegration of former Yugoslavia. Belgrade opposed both republic’s independence. Fears are growing that Montenegro’s move towards independence will be the cause of another bloody war in the Balkans.

“With the constitutional changes, Milosevic has placed Djukanovic in a grave position,” Bratislav Grubacic says. “What Milosevic wanted to do was to force Djukanovic into finally reaching a decision on whether he would yield to Belgrade or embark upon secession,” he added.

Montenegro responded with an urgent session of its parliament that lasted eight hours, until the early morning on Saturday. The tiny republic refrained from doing the expected of proclaiming outright independence.

Instead, the parliament adopted a resolution that completely rejected the constitutional changes.

Commenting on the cautious politics of his government Djukanovic said “there is fear of civil war”.

He said “if Milosevic tried to destabilise Montenegro, it will find the ways to protect itself not only with the police, but with the broad democratic movement here”.

Analysts point out that the crisis caused by constitutional changes in favour of Milosevic is far from over.

Fears are rising that, like in the past 10 years, the regime in Belgrade will lead the nation into another dangerous war adventure. After Croatia in 1991, Bosnia in 1992 – 95 period, this time it will be the disobedient Montenegro, they say.

“The tragic experiences of the past years, from the disintegration of former Yugoslavia through wars and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, NATO, air raids because of Kosovo, tell us that the worst case scenarios coming from Belgrade always develop,” says analyst Ivan Torov.

“Milosevic’s unscrupulous (drive) for power threatens, once again, a civil war among brothers – Serbs and Montenegrins,” he adds.