\\CORRECTED DATE\\POLITICS-YUGOSLAVIA: Hectic Electoral Campaign In Yugoslavia

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Sep 15 2000 (IPS) - The electoral campaign in Yugoslavia is becoming hectic ahead of the crucial September 24 polls, as both Serbian opposition and Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic appear confident of victory.

On Sept 24, some 7,8 million people are expected to vote for the president of Yugoslavia, federal parliament and local governments in more than 150 municipalities.

Slobodan Milosevic (59), current president of Yugoslavia, and the ruling coalition – comprising his Socialist Party (SPS) and his wife Mira Markovic’s party Yugoslav Left (JUL) – face the challenge of Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS), an umbrella group of 18 parties, headed by Vojislav Kostunica (56) as a presidential candidate.

For the first time in 10 years, 12 separate opinion polls in July, August and by mid-September predict that Milosevic faces defeat.

The polls, conducted by three independent public opinion institutes, predict that Kostunica will win 45 percent of the votes in the presidential race while Milosevic is only expected to win 30 percent.

“The elections are a ‘to be or not to be’ for the regime” analyst Bratislav Grubacic told IPS. “Faced with the total collapse of this society which it caused itself, and the enormous dissatisfaction of people, the regime is fighting for survival. This is a battle to keep privileges (and) huge amassed wealth for some alive”.

A close circle around the Milosevic family has profited from the breaching of international sanctions against Yugoslavia during the past decade, while the population lives in poverty compared only to post-World War II period.

The regime uses the state-controlled Radio Television of Serbia (RTS) for its propaganda promotion, with press conferences of highest SPS and JUL officials being presented for up to 70 minutes during the main evening news. The news normally last 30 minutes. Rallies are rarely organised and Milosevic has appeared only twice in public, officially opening some industrial sites.

Nevertheless, “Slobodan Milosevic will win with 100 percent against zero” Ivan Markovic, one of the closest aides to the Yugoslav president announced at a recent press conference.

The Yugoslav government has not presented any opinion polls of its own. It says those released by the independent pollsters are “rigged” and sponsored by the West.

The claim of involvement by the West in Yugoslav affairs has been a constant subject in election speeches of ruling officials, including Milosevic and his wife Mira Markovic.

On Wednesday, Information Minister Goran Matic even said “US- backed plotters were planning to overthrow Milosevic on the night of the elections”.

For Milosevic and his aides, on one side there are “patriots”, those who “refuse to bow to the dictates of the West”. On the other side, there are the “traitors”, the opposition leaders “always ready to compromise” with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation countries, that pounded the country from March to June last year.

“That is too much. The regime seems not to be aware of the fact that it openly slanders a large part of its own population” analyst Ivan Torov says.

Milosevic and Markovic are presenting the forthcoming polls as a kind of referendum on the question ‘for or against NATO’, in the hope of winning over people who still remain deeply traumatised by the alliance’s military operations.

“In the coming elections, you’ll chose between freedom and NATO occupation” Mira Markovic said at a recent rally in the remote village of Malo Crnuce, 70 kms east of Belgrade.

SPS and JUL electoral slogans are “People vote, not NATO”, “Slobo – Da”, a combination of Milosevic’s nickname “Slobo” and Yes, which together means “Freedom” in Serbian.

RTS never shows Kostunica’s campaign. Only vitriolic comments about him and a few other opposition leaders are aired.

“There was never such a dirty anti-opposition campaign here,” media expert Srdjan Bogosavljevic told IPS. “It only shows how the regime is afraid of finally losing power. It (the regime) does not hesitate from the most unscrupulous moves”.

Kostunica is mercilessly ridiculed by RTS as he has no children, being called “scum of the Earth”. The masculinity of former head of the army, General Momcilo Perisic, also campaigning for DOS, is regularly the subject of an unprecedented smearing campaign of RTS.

However no major towns were subjected to rallies by the SPS and JUL as the largest 15 towns in Serbia are run by the opposition parties at a local level.

But those towns are more than willing to host Vojislav Kostunica, DOS presidential candidate, and his modest entourage of three buses of activists involved into door-to-door campaign of waking up the electorate.

“We’re so tired of big words, Serb invincibility mentioned by Milosevic despite all the wars lost in past decade,” Jana Milovic (44) said at Kostunica’s rally in the provincial town of Uzice. “We want to know what is the way out of this and Kostunica tells it all – hard work, honesty, decency”.

Thousands of people flock to see Kostunica and shake hands with him.

On the other hand, the pro-opposition media are involved into painting a picture of the country deeply sunk into unprecedented economic crisis, isolation, facing a three digit inflation and hunger at its doors.

They also carry articles on vote rigging by the regime in the past and instructions on how to prevent or avoid that this time. No relevant international or domestic body dubbed any elections in the past 10 years of Slobodan Milosevic as democratic and fair.

The regime allowed no relevant domestic or observers abroad to monitor the elections.

Ten days away from the elections, Milosevic and the opposition are desperately seeking to attain the support of the “don’t knows” – who numbered between 25 and 30 percent in previous elections.

According to recent polls, so far 4.3 million of the 7.8 million voters are pretty sure of who they will select for the presidency.

Despite all the fervor and hectic atmosphere here, one thing remains unknown. It is the problem of Milosevic recognising the possible victory of Kostunica or of the opposition at the federal and local elections.

Many fear a repetition of the 1996 scenario, when the opposition won local elections in the 15 major towns. Only after three months of unprecedented peaceful street protests Milosevic bowed and accepted the loss.

“I see no way that Milosevic will recognise any other result except his own victory,” Marko Blagojevic of the Strategic Media and Marketing Research Institute (SMMRI) told IPS.

“If he turns against his own people, the only comfort is knowing that he lost all the wars so far – Croatia, Bosnia, NATO”.