POLITICS: Ethnic Tensions Rising in Madagascar

By James Hall Reprint | | Print |

James Hall

ANTANANARIVO, Mar 25 2002 (IPS) - Political and now ethnic tensions are rising as Madagascar’s presidential impasse continues, with rival contenders proclaiming governing decrees they are powerless to enforce.

Some observers have described the popular following of Marc Ravalomanana, 52, now installed in the capital, as a “peaceful revolution”. This ignores the 20 deaths attributed to political violence this month, following a previous two months since Dec 16’s contested presidential elections that were free of bloodshed.

Others suggest that a blockade of the capital ordered by incumbent president Didier Ratsiraka, 67, is the opening salvo of a civil war, despite the geographic isolation of Ratsiraka in his hometown, the eastern Indian Ocean port of Tamatave, which may severely limit his activities.

Another unpredictable factor is the army, which since the beginning of the dispute has proclaimed its neutrality, even though Ravalomanana appointed as defence minister top general Jules Marnizara, who famously announced, “From now on I will take orders from President Ravalomanana”.

Meanwhile, the Army Chief of Staff, Ismael Mounibou, has not gone over to the opposition camp, and ostensibly remains loyal to Ratsiraka.

Ratsiraka continues to insist the impasse can be broken only when a run-off election is held, a constitutional necessity when no candidate obtains 52 percent of the vote.

The High Constitutional Court has endorsed election results that put Ravalomanana ahead of Ratsiraka by 46.2 percent of the vote to 40.8 percent for the incumbent, a lead that fails to be an outright majority.

“The election was rigged, and I obtained 52 percent of the vote,” Ravalomanana declared shortly before staging his own inauguration, and appointing a cabinet.

The Organisation of African Unity (OAU) two weeks ago sent a delegation to mediate between the rivals. One solution the OAU presented, which implied Ravalomanana did indeed win the election vote, called for Ratsiraka to step aside, perhaps leaving the island nation completely.

A referendum would then be held that would permit public endorsement of the new administration, granting Ravalomanana’s government the legitimacy needed for international recognition. Currently, neither the OAU, nor the United Nations, nor any nation recognizes Ravalomanana.

The OAU’s proposals remain on the table. Political violence that seems anomalous in the beautiful nation of 16 million people is escalating, and the blockade of the capital continues.

Ratsiraka, who came to power in 1975 through a military coup before two terms as an elected president, beginning in 1996, seeks to thwart what he sees a new coup by blocking the road from his power base Tamatave, the port from which Antananarivo receives its goods and fuel.

The resulting fuel shortage at the tropical capital is now acute, but more dire is a lack of basic food commodities like rice.

Religious organisations – Madagascar is 41 percent Christian and 7 percent Muslim, while a majority 52 percent of people practice traditional beliefs centred on ancestral worship – which have lent support to Ravalomanana at daily public rallies at Antananarivo Square are now organising aid relief to stave off starvation.

Attendance continues at the daily rallies, drawing thousands of peaceful protestors long after the objective of placing a Ravalomanana administration in government offices has been achieved.

But Madagascar’s governance is sufficiently decentralised that the regional governments of the nation’s six provinces may ultimately determine which contender receives crucial support to rule.

After five of the six provincial governors expressed their backing of Ratsiraka, Ravalomanana, in this past week’s most significant pronouncement, appointed his own slate of provincial governors.

Ravalomanana’s people have not revealed just how the governors will be installed without further peril of civil war. If he fails, the embarrassment will echo a credibility setback suffered this month by Ratsiraka when he declared martial law, only to see his order ignored in the absence of an enforcing authority, such as the army.

The Antananarivo newspaper Midi Madagasikara, whose editorial line favours Ravalomanana, has reported mixed success for the capital authorities’ efforts to govern. Worse, the newspaper reports, is the rising ethnic tension the ruling impasse has brought.

The inland Merina people, of Malayo-Indonesian descent, have long felt neglected by the urban coastal population. Midi Madagasikara reports that Merinas have been attacked in the Ratsiraka-controlled Tamatave, and Merinas have comprised a majority of fatalities in political violence.

Election observers noted that economic issues were foremost on voters’ minds last December. Now political tension is breeding ethnic violence that may fundamentally destabalise the peaceful ethnic coexistence that has characterised Madagascar.

“When a resolution to the presidency dispute is achieved, the economic losses will already be enormous,” says a financier in Antananarivo.

The World Bank has estimated that the conflict is costing the Madagascar economy 12 million U.S. dollars a day, mostly as a result of the capital blockade that is also affecting exports of agricultural and industrial products, and minerals.

The foreign ministry of France, Madagascar’s colonial overseer until Independence in 1960 has called for an end to the blockade, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says economic recovery from the dispute will take several years to achieve.

“In some ways the losses will surpass the cyclone devastation of 2000,” says a Southern Africa diplomat familiar with the country.