BURMA: Just-approved Visit by U.N. Envoy Another Try at Dialogue

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, May 15 2003 (IPS) - U.N. envoy Razali Ismail’s return to Rangoon in June, after an absence of more than six months, signals yet another opportunity to see how much of a push he can give to the stalled dialogue between the generals and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

"Mr Razali will be visiting Burma for four days from the 6th June," government spokesman Colonel Hla Min said of the permission Rangoon gave to Razali this week.

Razali has been trying for months to return to Burma to help restart the process, but the generals have rebuffed his repeated attempts to visit the country over the past three months. The authorities continually found excuses – the country’s banking crisis, the visit by the U.N. rapporteur on human rights Paulo Pinheiro or trips abroad by key government ministers – to delay his visit.

In the past few weeks, the U.N. envoy has begun to express his frustration and annoyance publicly. "I am perplexed and disappointed," he said recently when he was in Bangkok to see the Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai. "I thought I was a good friend to all sides so can’t understand why I’m unable to visit," he said.

The U.N. envoy was largely responsible for brokering secret talks between the two sides more than two years ago, while the opposition leader was under house arrest.

He also convinced the Burmese generals to free Aung San Suu Kyi a year ago. But since then, there has been little contact between the military government and the opposition leader.

"There’s nothing happening on the political front," said an Asian diplomat in Rangoon, "the whole national reconciliation process has stalled and needs Mr Razali to return to give it new momentum."

Since Razali started his diplomatic mission more than three years ago, he has visited Rangoon every three months or so. "It is crucial that I see all parties involved in the dialogue process as regularly as possible," Razali emphasised recently.

It will now be more than six months since his last visit – the longest interval ever between trips.

Diplomats in Rangoon believe the military regime’s reluctance to allow the U.N. envoy to return to Burma is a clear sign that the dialogue process is in real trouble. So Razali will be returning to Burma at a very crucial time.

There has been no real contact between the two sides for more than six months. In recent weeks there had been fears that the dialogue process was degenerating into a war of words between the two sides, fought through press conferences and press releases.

Four weeks ago, Aung San Suu Kyi went on the offensive and for the first time since her release a year ago publicly accused the military government of not being sincere about their promises to introduce democratic reform. "I have come to the conclusion that the SPDC (State Peace and Development Council, as the military government is called) is not interested in national reconciliation," she told reporters in Rangoon.

Since then there have been signs that the military government was anxious to repair its relations with the opposition leader. These include the release of more than 20 political prisoners more than a week ago.

Diplomats in Rangoon also expected a face-to-face meeting to take place between Aung San Suu Kyi and senior representatives of the military government, but this does not appear to have happened.

It is unlikely to take place now as the opposition leader is touring Kachin state in the north of the country and is not due back until a few days before Razali is scheduled to arrive in Rangoon.

But even if the regime seems to have mellowed and agreed to allow Razali to return to Rangoon to talk to both sides, as yet there has been no sign that Burma’s top generals are prepared to start the serious political talks they promised after the release of the opposition leader from house arrest.

According to U.N. officials, Razali hopes to able to convince them to do just that on this trip. But Razali will have his work cut out for him.

"Ambassador Razali is likely to be exploring ways in which the two sides can actively cooperate with each other as a preliminary stage before substantive political negotiations," said a U.N. official.

The envoy is anxious to find ways of moving the process on from the pure confidence-building stage to active cooperation between them, which could lead to substantive talks.

Razali is likely to try to resurrect some of the recommendations he has made to both sides in the past. "He’s looking for a project or two on which both sides can work together on," U.N. officials in New York said privately.

Razali is believed to feel there is scope now to pursue this as the humanitarian crisis is rapidly worsening and both sides realise Burma’s desperate need for humanitarian and development assistance.

Both the opposition leader and the senior military officials say the two sides should cooperate on humanitarian and development issues like AIDS, health and education. "They (the generals) have shown that they are not willing to cooperate with us in matters of humanitarian aid," Aung San Suu Kyi told a press conference in Rangoon last month.

"The government actively welcomes meaningful and constructive help in all areas of national development – particularly in education, health care and economic development," said Colonel Hla Min in a recent statement to the international press.

Razali remains convinced that he can help all sides in their reconciliation process – the government, the opposition and the ethnic minorities.

Diplomats feel that the generals and Aung San Suu Kyi are unable to talk to each other without some form of international mediation, and that otherwise Burma’s political deadlock will never be resolved.

U.N. officials insist the organisation has a very important role to play in all conflict situations – not just in Burma – that goes beyond facilitation. In recent months the international community has also begun to suggest that Razali’s role should be boosted.

Now Razali will have another opportunity to see if he can help push the dialogue process forward. Interestingly, the Burmese authorities agreed to this last trip just as the United States and the European Union are in the process of strengthening economic sanctions against Rangoon because of the lack of progress in the dialogue process.