Development & Aid, Headlines, Latin America & the Caribbean, Population

POPULATION: Cuba’s Ageing ‘Baby-Boomer’ Generation Presents Challenges

Dalia Acosta

HAVANA, Oct 21 2003 (IPS) - Cuba has had to adapt to the impact of its own generation of ”baby-boomers”, born in the 1960s. First it was a question of providing enough spots in child-care centres and primary schools, and in the not-so-distant future, the pensions system will begin to feel the burden.

Between 1961 and 1968, an average of 250,000 babies a year were born. But after another brief surge in 1971 and 1972, the birth rate began to drop, and by the 1990s, the annual average stood at 140,000 births.

”The country first had to deal with a shortage of child-care centres, and then huge numbers of primary school teachers had to be trained. When that generation reached university age, there were not enough classrooms,” says Silvia Alvarez, a retired historian.

The solution for guaranteeing the right to study for all Cubans who wished to do so was to create new spots in the universities and send thousands of youngsters to study in the former Soviet Union and the countries of what was then the East European socialist bloc.

In the mid-1980s, the concern was that there were too many university graduates and professionals and a dearth of manual labour, and the need to make admission to university more selective began to be discussed.

But analysts say that none of what has happened so far can compare with the impact that the ageing of the population and the slow population growth rate will have on this socialist island nation.

”When those born in the 1960s reach retirement age, the economically active population will begin to shrink, in absolute terms,” said Otilia Barros, director of the Centre for Demographic Studies (CEDEM) at the University of Havana.

The ”demographic transition” process is marked by a plunge in birth and mortality rates. In Cuba, the large number of people who emigrate has also played a role.

A study by Barros published by CEDEM states that between 2000 and 2050, the total number of people over 75 could grow by more than one and a half million.

With more than 14 percent of its 11.2 million people over the age of 60 in late 2002, Cuba was the country with the oldest population in Latin America and the Caribbean, after Uruguay.

By 2010, people over 60 will account for 18 percent of the population, and for the first time ever, there will be more elderly people than children in Cuba.

According to projections by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), by 2025 Cuba will have the oldest population in Latin America and the Caribbean, with 25.9 percent of the population over 60, followed by Barbados (25.4 percent), Trinidad and Tobago (20.5 percent), Uruguay (20 percent), and Chile (18.4 percent).

Local authorities and experts agree that what is needed is an in-depth restructuring of the public health system, a significant expansion of social security, and a review of current policies and legislation related to human resources.

For example, Cuban law establishes retirement age at 55 for women and 60 for men, which is seen as one of the gains made by the socialist system.

But while 10 years ago there was insistence on the need for people to retire early in order to ”make way for the young generations,” Cubans will soon have to continue working until later and later ages.

Analysts predict modifications in the ages at which people can join the workforce and retire, especially women; greater incorporation of people over 55 into the labour force; and a change in the upper age-limit for studying at the university.

Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a local academic, said ”the most outstanding feature” of the demographic transition process in Cuba is that ”it has occurred in the absence of development.”

Cuba has demonstrated ”that lack of development is not an insurmountable obstacle for demographic evolution,” but at the same time it has shown that ”the persistence of under-development sets limits on further progress,” he said.

Albizu-Campos added that ”one cannot conceive of a population in which the proportion of people over 60 is growing faster and faster, with high life expectancy, without all of that being accompanied by high living standards.”

Experts say that only socioeconomic development and taking full advantage of the creative capacities of highly skilled human resources over the next few decades will allow Cuba to face the challenge of the ageing of its population.