POLITICS-NEPAL: Maoist Conflict Sends Country Adrift

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Analysis - By Suman Pradhan

KATHMANDU, Mar 11 2004 (IPS) - More than 1,500 people dead, over 250 disappeared, and thousands more rendered homeless in trying to flee ravaged villages. These are not the final casualty figures in the wake of a natural disaster, but the toll of the Maoist conflict in Nepal since the collapse of the last ceasefire in August 2003.

More than 1,500 people dead, over 250 disappeared, and thousands more rendered homeless in trying to flee ravaged villages. These are not the final casualty figures in the wake of a natural disaster, but the toll of the Maoist conflict in Nepal since the collapse of the last ceasefire in August 2003.

These numbers show that the conflict in this poor Himalayan kingdom has turned into just about the deadliest conflict in Asia.

According to Informal Sector Service Centre, a respected local human rights group, the daily death toll has jumped from 6.56 before the ceasefire to 11.6 after the collapse of the truce.

The overall death toll in the conflict, which first began in February 1996, has reached more than 9,130.

"This is by far the most violent conflict in South Asia," said Deepak Thapa, an author and expert on the Maoist conflict. "The rate of daily killings has doubled since the resumption of hostilities."

Two months after the collapse of a ceasefire, the Nepal government embarked on an ambitious programme to contain the Maoist rebellion through increased security operations.

Faced with a rising tide of Maoist-inspired violence and the lackluster performance of Nepal’s myriad security services, the government announced a "unified command" that put military and other security operations under the central command of the Royal Nepal Army (RNA).

The idea was to give the military a free hand in operations in the rural districts where the insurgency has been raging since 1996.

Four months after those policies were announced by Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, the poor Himalayan kingdom is picking through the ghastly toll of increased militarisation.

The government itself admits that more than 1,500 people have been killed since August alone. The human rights group Amnesty International has said it has documented cases of over 250 disappearances of civilians and others, mostly by the RNA.

The growing trend of disappearances and indiscriminate killings in "encounters" in recent months lends credence to rumours that the military is following an unofficial policy of extermination of state enemies by death squads. No hard evidence exists, but senior military officials privately admit that the policy is to "terrorise the terrorists”.

What is becoming clear after eight years of strife is that both the military and the Maoists are taking a no-holds barred approach in the conflict.

The current security situation can be summed up thus: As the Maoists inflicted losses on government forces in the first seven years of the conflict, it invited a tough response in the form of increased militarisation. This has dented the rebels’ ability to wage war to some extent by degrading their military capability, but at a huge human and political cost.

While the spotlight has fallen on the rights abuses by security services, the Maoists too are far from innocent. They have killed innocents, political activists and family members of soldiers with impunity. Some reports have emerged in recent days that they are on a forced recruitment drive of up to 50,000 children.

"Earlier, Bangladesh, with all its floods and civil strife, used to be the basket case of South Asia," a diplomat based in Kathmandu said. "Now it’s unequivocally Nepal. At least the country used to have democracy, however imperfect that may have been. It’s not even there anymore."

The side effects of the conflict are well-known. The war has not only devastated the nation’s young democratic institutions – the country has had no parliament and elected local bodies for nearly two years, but has a heavily politicised judiciary and anti-corruption machinery, weak civil society and human rights regime, a self-serving and self-censoring press. Above all, the country has a king who wants to be heard and not just seen.

All of this has led to questions about where Nepal is going.

It is no coincidence that most donors, who fund the bulk of Nepal’s development and regular budgetary expenses, are now calling for accountability. The Utstein Group of donors, which put out a statement in November when the World Bank approved a huge loan for Nepal, points the way to future trends.

Already, the donors and the government are girding up to do battle in the Nepal Development Forum in May.

Most donors will be carrying the message that while they support Nepal’s development and other needs, they would also like to see an improvement in the country’s human rights record and see a return of multi-party democracy and constitutional monarchy back on track.

Clearly, this is all turning into a major headache for the government, thus the constant refrain for holding elections. Announcing elections would not only seem democratic but also ease the donor pressure somewhat.

"I urge my party men to prepare for the polls this year," Prime Minister Thapa urged his Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) members this week. "We are serious about holding elections and we can guarantee security for the polls."

But few, least of all the major political parties, really believe that free and fair elections can be held in the current security environment.

"While we will participate in any elections provided there is security and is held freely and fairly, we don’t believe the government can hold such polls in this environment," Dr Prakash Saran Mahat, a top leader of the Nepali Congress (Democratic) party, said.