POLITICS: Hardliners Could Isolate Burma Further

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Larry Jagan

BANGKOK, Nov 16 2004 (IPS) - As the purge of pragmatists continues in Burma, there are signs that a major shift of power is also underway within the junta. A new generation of military officers is beginning to emerge which may signal a significant shift in policy, particularly towards the outside world.

After the dramatic arrest of prime minister Khin Nyunt in October, military hardliner commanders under Senior General Than Shwe in Rangoon seem to be committed to purging any remaining people who may have shared the former premier’s vision of Burma’s future.

Burma watchers viewed Khin Nyunt as a moderate for the plans he revealed – the most important of which was a seven-step road map towards democratic reform in Burma. The reconvening of the National Convention to draft a new constitution, which was first initiated in 1993 but adjourned in 1996, was described, at the time, as the preliminary step of this exercise.

In addition, he was also reported to favour talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent the past year under house arrest.

Most of Burma’s ambassadors have been recalled to Rangoon, ostensibly for a formal briefing, but many of them – especially those aligned with the former foreign minister Win Aung and Khin Nyunt are not expected to return to their posts abroad.

Win Aung, a close confidant of Khin Nyunt, was the first to be purged after the prime minister’s arrest.

More changes in the country’s military administration are in the pipeline, according to Asian diplomats.

”There is likely to be a further shake-up of the cabinet, possibly within weeks,” a Rangoon-based South-east Asian diplomat told IPS. ”This will be followed by a major change amongst the country’s regional commanders – already the western regional commander is on his way back to Rangoon to become the new home minister.”

This follows the recent sacking of the home (interior) minister Col. Tin Hlaing and the Labour Minister U Tin Winn who were permitted to retire, according to the state-run media – but were in effect purged.

Both ministers were the last of Khin Nyunt’s key supporters in the cabinet. They were also the only remaining senior ministers who had close contacts with diplomats and international organisations.

Tin Winn recently led a top-level official delegation to the U.N. General Assembly in New York and later to the Asia-Europe Summit Meeting (ASEM) in Hanoi. The interior minister had attended an international meeting in Rangoon where the Mekong countries signed a regional cooperation agreement on combating human trafficking.

Four other ministers, the deputy ministers for agriculture Brig-Gen. Khin Maung and Brig-Gen. Kyaw Win; Livestock Breeding and Fisheries Minister Aung Thein and Science and Technology Minister Nyi Hla Nge were also sacked.

Khin Nyunt’s Oct. 19 removal from office was initially explained, in textbook dictatorship style, that ”he was simply unwell”. But it turned out that the prime minister, who was also the country’s military intelligence chief, was placed under house arrest.

Since then, hundreds of military intelligence officers have been detained, many of them charged with corruption.

Diplomats in Rangoon believe as many as 2,000 senior military intelligence officers are currently in detention. A few have been allowed to retire and others have fled – or in hiding along the border with China and Thailand.

At least 20 Burmese military intelligence officers based in Bangkok have disappeared within 24 hours of Khin Nyunt’s arrest, according to sources here.

As the current power struggle plays out in Rangoon, Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office, last week, released its annual human rights report for 2004 and singled out the Burmese military regime for suppressing political opposition groups.

The report also highlights the attack on the entourage of Suu Kyi, which was ambushed by government-backed thugs while traveling in upper Burma in May last year. The report claims that about 1,400 political prisoners are denied basic rights and healthcare.

”The gravest failures to respect human rights can provide fertile ground for terror and conflict, bringing mass killings, refugees, and the destruction of precarious livelihoods in their wake,” said Jack Straw, Britain’s secretary of state for foreign and Commonwealth affairs, when launching the report.

The report stresses that the regime’s seven-point roadmap lacks democratic principles and that Rangoon has rebuffed international efforts to improve human rights conditions in the country.

Other rights violations were also cited, including forced labor, the forced recruitment of child soldiers, religious persecution and abuses in ethnic minority areas.

Meanwhile the political strife between Than Shwe and Khin Nyunt has had its first repercussion overseas.

On Friday, a Japanese group withdrew its sponsorship of a Buddhist summit in Burma next month over concerns about the junta’s hardline shake-up.

Japan’s Nenbutsushu sect has held the World Buddhist Summit every two years in a Buddhist nation. The event was due to be held from Dec. 9 – 13 in Rangoon, where a new convention hall has been built for it and temples and hostels spruced up.

But the sect said most nations refused to attend after the junta sacked Khin Nyunt and placed him under house arrest.

”People were concerned that this was a coup d’etat or an undemocratic change of government,” said Nenbutsushu spokesman Kazuo Takayama.

But the transfer of power in Burma is far from over.

The purge of Khin Nyunt and his supporters is likely to be the start of the process rather than the end. Diplomats in Rangoon believe it may not be Than Shwe who is really calling the shots, but Burma’s number two – Gen. Maung Aye, effectively the army chief.

”There is no doubt that Than Shwe will have been consulted and involved in the events that unfolded, but Gen. Maung Aye was clearly the prime mover,” said a senior South-east Asian diplomat who regularly deals with Rangoon.

”The top army commanders have taken firm control of the military and government. All the new appointments to the cabinet have been loyal army officers, close to Than Shwe and Maung Aye,” he added.

The regime’s top generals have also been talking about the need to transfer power within Burma’s military leadership to the next or younger generation.

Gen. Thura Shwe Mann, the armed forces chief of staff and Lt-Gen. Soe Win, who replaced Khin Nyunt are both clearly destined for the top jobs.

A new triumvirate is beginning to emerge with Maung Aye, Thura Shwe Mann and Soe Win running the country on a day-to-day basis. Than Shwe is likely to fade into the background, but remain a key figure in the power structure.

”His role is likely to be a combination of the former Burmese leader Ne Win after 1988 and China’s paramount leader Deng Xiaoping,” a western diplomat who closely follows Burmese politics told IPS.

The next few months are going to be critical for Burma. But the signs are not too hopeful as there are strong indications the new generals will actually retreat into greater isolation.