CHALLENGES 2004-2005: More Difficult Days Ahead for Europe

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Stefania Bianchi

BRUSSELS, Dec 27 2004 (IPS) - European Union officials will undoubtedly breathe a sigh of relief when the final clock chimes to mark the end of 2004. It certainly has been a tough year for the bloc. But they should not sit back and relax too soon – 2005 could be even tougher.

European Union officials will undoubtedly breathe a sigh of relief when the final clock chimes to mark the end of 2004. It certainly has been a tough year for the bloc. But they should not sit back and relax too soon – 2005 could be even tougher.

In a busy year full of drama, highs and lows, and controversy, which saw a united and then a divided Union, leaders will be hoping that can look forward to a less tumultuous and scandal-free New Year. They say a week is a lifetime in politics. For the EU, 2004 may have seemed like an eternity.

It saw the bloc almost double in size from 15 member states to 25, embarrassing elections in the European Parliament, the signing of the controversial European constitution and the much-publicised appointment of a new team of Commissioners.

And as if that wasn’t enough for a year’s work, EU leaders concluded 2004 by agreeing to start accession negotiations with Turkey next year – the most controversial candidate to joining the bloc to date.

Ireland occupied the rotating presidency of the bloc for the first half of the year. During a difficult and testing six months Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern was on many occasions applauded for his political manoeuvring and negotiation skills which allowed the EU to bring thorny talks on the EU Constitution and the European Commission presidency to a successful end.

The fight against terrorism became a major focus of attention during the first half of Ireland’s term after the devastating Madrid bombings of March 11 killed 191 people.

EU leaders adopted a ‘Declaration on Combating Terrorism’ at the March European Council aimed at ensuring the safety of EU citizens while developing a comprehensive strategy to address all aspects of the terrorist threat.

While the Madrid bombings devastated the entire EU bloc, they also served to unite EU member states through grief and determination to fight the ongoing threat of terrorism. This was a welcome alliance after the bitter divisions of 2003 caused by the war in Iraq.

The EU witnessed a further display of togetherness on May 1 with the accession of the ten new EU member states to the club – Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Slovakia.

The entry of 10 mostly post-Soviet countries to what had been formerly an almost exclusive club was a truly historic moment, taking the total size of the bloc to some 450 million people, behind only China and India.

While the transition from 15 to 25 went smoothly, it was not without its shadows. Cyprus remained a divided island on accession after its Greek-Cypriot portion rejected a UN reunification plan pushed vigorously by the older EU members.

However, the EU dream was short-lived and was broken by the harsh reality of public opinion voiced at polling stations across the enlarged bloc in June.

In spite of high expectations, the elections to the European parliament, the bloc’s only democratically-elected body, saw a record-low turnout of voters (45 percent), and arise in anti-EU parties, such as the UK Independence Party which took 12 out of 732 seats in parliament.

While this may have been the lowest point for the chamber, the newly-elected members of the European Parliament (MEPs) started their new term in office in July, bruises and all under the guidance of the relatively unknown Josep Borrell, a 57-year old Socialist.

However MEPs did not have to wait too long for their moment of glory. It came only a few months later, under the Dutch presidency of the EU, when the parliament was able to demonstrate its new-found powers when its objections to a proposed EU commissioner were enough to prevent him – and the entire college of commissioners – from taking office.

As EU leaders gathered in Rome at the end of October for the historic signing of the European constitution which will determine the future of the enlarged union, a row over the controversial Italian nomination for the role of justice and home affairs, commissioner Rocco Buttiglione, was raging in Brussels.

A devout Catholic, Buttiglione was scorned by MEPs opposed to his conservative views on homosexuality and the role of women in society and was forced to step down from his designated role.

After weeks of institutional wrangling between the EU executive and the parliament, new Commission president José Manuel Barroso was forced to reshuffle and reappoint his team even before they had taken office.

Once the furore over Buttiglione had died down the 25 new commissioners were able to move into the newly refurbished and asbestos-free headquarters in the heart of the Brussels EU quarter to start their five-year mandate, almost one month late.

Coming home to the prestigious Berlaymont building after being scattered around the Belgian capital for over ten years after the original 1970s structure was found to contain asbestos is expected to raise the profile and indeed morale of the EU executive.

One of the first tasks of the newly-installed college was to decide whether Turkey should be allowed to start accession negotiations with the bloc.

The Commission’s approval was taken to the heads of the EU in December, who agreed that after knocking on Europe’s door for four decades, the mainly Muslim country should be allowed to launch membership talks from Oct. 2005.

But they did not throw the door wide open. A fraught summit of EU leaders mid- December agreed a raft of tough conditions to be attached to Turkey’s bid. These conditions mean that Turkey’s accession, if it comes, will be at least a decade away – and then only if Ankara first recognises the Greek-Cypriot government.

While much has been done in 2004, there remains much more to do over the next 12 months as Europe faces another year of political and economic uncertainty.

After a slow start to their mandate, the bloc’s commissioners and MEPs will be eager to get their teeth into the ‘real’ issues concerning Europe, and there will not be a shortage of such issues.

One of the first challenges of the Commission will be the EU’s next big spending round – or the so-called financial perspectives – covering the period 2007-2013. These are expected to come to a conclusion in June.

If past EU financial discussions are anything to go by, fireworks can be expected in 2005 as the bloc’s biggest and richest members such as Britain, Germany and France push for a diminished EU budget ceiling set at one percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) to halt lavish subsidies for the poorer and newer states.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who will succeed the Netherlands at the EU helm for the first half of the New Year, has already indicated that an agreement can be reached somewhere between the level proposed by the Commission and the ceiling which the net payers want to impose.

Elsewhere, many of the familiar debates and issues will roll on. Some may even reach their conclusion.

One of the main challenges of each of the EU member states will be to convince their countries over the future direction of the bloc. Although the EU constitution was signed by EU leaders in 2004, the real debate on the document will start in 2005.

As many as 10 of the 25 member countries – including Spain, Denmark and Ireland, and possibly France, Portugal and Poland – are expected to hold referendums to ratify it over the next two years, with the remainder leaving the task to their parliaments.

The constitution still faces passionate opposition in a number of member states where voters are either sceptical of ceding power to Brussels or unhappy with the terms of the deal.

And the debate over the expansion of the bloc will continue.

Turkey and the EU will have to find a diplomatically viable solution to the unresolved Cyprus problem before the formal opening of accession negotiations planned for Oct. 3. While Turkey resisted giving full recognition to Cyprus at the Brussels summit Dec. 2004, it committed itself to doing so before Oct. 2005.

The signing of accession treaties in April with Romania and Bulgaria will also beamong the highlights of the year. The EU may also open accession talks with Croatia in March.

The New Year will also be important environmentally. The EU’s scheme for trading carbon emissions will come into effect Jan. 1.

Development issues will be high on the global policy agenda, and the EU’s international negotiations will have great impact on this.

The end of the bloc’s textile quota in January will introduce profound changes in the industry and bring about a new international distribution of trade in clothing and textiles.

So too will the EU’s involvement in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Doha Round of trade talks. It is hoped that the WTO meeting in Hong Kong will bring the year to a triumphant close with the announcement of a deal to further liberalise global trade in ways that should give a boost to the economies of poor countries.

On an international political level the EU will be watching the Palestinian and Iraqi elections with interest and will seek to fulfil its objective to lift its 15-year-old arms embargo on China during the first half of the year.

It will also hope to forge closer relations with the United States. Luxembourg says one of its top priorities will be to organise a special EU summit with U.S. President George W. Bush when he visits Brussels in February.

The event is expected to be an important stocktaking of the transatlantic relationship.