PAKISTAN: Zardari’s Release Well-Timed With Musharraf’s Scheming?

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - By Muddassir Rizvi

ISLAMABAD, Dec 2 2004 (IPS) - Asif Ali Zardari who was just released after eight years in detention, has a single-minded resolve. In what he terms as the last battle, the husband of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto wants to fight to the end Pakistan’s ”dwindling military-dominated establishment” to ensure that power is returned to the people and multi-party democracy restored to the country.

”The establishment is going to disintegrate,” said Zardari who was set free on Nov. 22 after the Supreme Court granted him bail in the last of more than 15 corruption and criminal cases framed against him by the governments of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and President Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

Zardari who was arrested on Nov. 4, 1996, for the second time, said in jail intelligence agencies wanted ”to break me through physical and mental torture in order to pressure Bhutto, but they failed.”

Zardari was first arrested in 1990 when Bhutto’s political foe Nawaz Sharif of the rival Pakistan Muslim League was prime minister. He spent 28 months facing criminal and corruption charges.

As minister and senator he was at the helm of affairs until Bhutto’s second government was dismissed by then President Farooq Leghari in 1996.

Bhutto, who governed Pakistan twice – from 1988 to 1990 and 1993 to 1996 – lives in self-imposed exile in London and Dubai.

She left Pakistan in April 1998 and was convicted in absentia of corruption and other charges that she rejects as political victimisation to keep her away from the last elections held in 2002.

Commenting on Gen. Musharraf as both president and the army chief, Zardari said: ”Democracy and authoritarian rules can’t go together.” Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999 and has held the dual posts of president and army chief since June 2001.

In a bid to take on Musharraf’s military-controlled government, Zardari wants to bring all the political parties – from liberal to secular and progressive to religious – on one platform.

”I can be a bridge for all the political forces to agree on minimum points of democracy and supremacy of parliament,” he told reporters.

But Zardari’s overtures, according to observers, seem to be sending out confusing signals.

”He is perhaps weighing his options and trying to find his place in the political chessboard,” said Amir Wasim, a journalist with the English-language daily ‘Dawn’, who has extensively written on opposition politics.

”He is giving out signals of defiance that perhaps he thought people wanted to hear from him,” Wasim told IPS. ”But (at the same time) he is also showing his readiness to forgive and forget. He is just weighing what stance would win him more support.”

Eight years in jail have transformed Zardari who otherwise was seen as a playboy and a happy-go-lucky kind of a person. Now appearing humble and mature, Zardari often says in his media appearances: ”Eight years in jail have taught me humility.”

Zardari’s release was certainly a pleasant surprise for people in a country where the tradition of persecution of political opponents has fogged the vision of even its most progressive leaders.

That Zardari walked out of jail soon after the call was made by the secretary general of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League for the release of all political prisoners, has set tongues wagging.

Were there behind-the-scenes negotiations between the military generals and Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) for his release?

”Zardari must have been released for a reason. He must have a role to play for the government,” commented Ali Khan, a local banker. ”Perhaps it is a ploy by the government to restrict the formation of a grand political alliance between progressive and religious political parties against Musharraf.”

But confidants of the Bhutto family dismiss that speculation, saying the courts released Zardari after having found no substantive evidence against him.

”Even if he was released after 20 years, people would still have thought there was some sort of a deal with the government,” said Senator Farhatullah Baber, Bhutto’s official spokesperson in the Pakistani capital.

Despite clarifications and dismissals, the general impression is that Zardari’s release may also eventually ensure the return of Bhutto.

Zardari himself has declared that his wife would be back soon to lead the PPP in elections that he insists will be held in 2005. However, the former prime minister has made it known that she would only return once the government guarantees she will not be arrested – a promise that doesn’t seem forthcoming.

But his release has raised many questions about the future course of the opposition parties as well as the government.

It has come at a time when the two major opposition alliances – Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) and the Mutahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) – get ready to launch their separate agitation campaigns against Gen. Musharraf’s intentions to retain the dual offices of president and army chief.

The ARD is a grouping of parties aligned to Bhutto and Sharif and some smaller regional and ethnic groups, while the MMA is a six-party alliance of religious parties.

In fact, the MMA already kicked off its campaign on Nov. 29 by holding a massive public rally in the southern port city of Karachi, with the conspicuous absence of any key leaders despite earlier indications of a joint campaign. Hence, the military may already have achieved one of its objectives by releasing Zardari.

However, many believe Zardari’s freedom was in fact meant to weaken the ARD, as he might not want to work with the faction of the Pakistan Muslim League headed by his former persecutor Sharif.

If that is so, it may jeopardise the ARD and its mass agitation campaign against Musharraf beginning this month. Zardari himself has also been silent regarding his stand on the ARD – only to reinforce this perception.

As it is, it could further strengthen Musharraf’s hand if opposition to his rule only comes from the Islamic parties. His bastion of support is in the West and the general has justified his position by doing the bidding of United States in it’s so-called war on global terrorism and Washington’s crackdown on Islamic militancy.

But the fact remains that unpopular forces cannot rule the country for long. As Farasat Shah, a PPP supporter in the capital said: ”Fresh elections are the only way out for the establishment.”