Headlines, North America

POLITICS-U.S.: Voters Hope for Softer, Gentler Second Term

Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Jan 18 2005 (IPS) - If U.S. President George W. Bush steers his foreign policy in a more multilateralist direction, he will have strong support from both Republican and Democratic voters for doing so, according to a new survey and analysis based on several major polls on foreign-policy attitudes conducted over the last six months.

"Since many factors influenced the outcome of the election, the question stands: What is the public’s mandate in the specific area of U.S. foreign policy?" said PIPA’s director, Steven Kull.

However, Republican voters were considerably more optimistic than Democrats that Bush will in fact embrace a more multilateralist policy and less militaristic policy, according to the survey, which was designed by the University of Maryland’s Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) and carried out by California-based Knowledge Networks (KN) in late December.

The 33-page analysis, entitled "Opportunities for Bipartisan Consensus: What Both Republicans and Democrats Want in Foreign Policy", was released by PIPA Tuesday, just two days before Bush is to be sworn in for his second term as president.

Most Democrats believe that Bush is likely to continue on the same trajectory that he followed in his first term. But Republicans, according to a series of polls, believe that he will put a higher priority on maintaining Washington’s traditional alliances and strengthening multilateral institutions, and be more willing to compromise with them on key international issues, including what to do about Iran’s and North Korea’s alleged nuclear-weapons programmes.

The study, which is aimed at identifying specific areas of consensus shared by strong majorities of Republican and Democratic voters, is based primarily on the massive Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) survey, which has been conducted every four years since 1976 and then again last July, and a series of PIPA surveys taken from July through late December.

The CCFR poll found that about four in five U.S. voters agreed with the statement: "The U.S. is playing the role of world policeman more than it should be".

Of these, 72 percent of Republicans agreed, while 87 percent of Democrats agreed. Similarly, two thirds of Republicans and 79 percent of Democrats said the most important lesson deriving from the Sep. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. was that Washington should cooperate more with other countries to fight terrorism, as opposed to acting more on its own.

When asked in December, however, whether the "Bush administration" – as opposed to the U.S. – should be more cooperative with other countries, only 30 percent of Republicans agreed, while three of every four Democrats did so.

At the same time, 74 percent of Republicans predicted that Bush will be more cooperative, while two-thirds of Democrats predicted that he won’t.

In July, the CCFR also found strong bipartisan agreement on the importance of strengthening the United Nations and other multilateral institutions as a foreign policy goal, with nearly two-thirds of Republicans and nearly 90 percent of Democrats agreeing with that recommendation.

When PIPA asked in December whether a second Bush administration would be more willing to make decisions within the U.N. framework, 73 percent of Republicans said yes, while 77 percent of Democrats predicted no change in the administration’s behaviour.

In July, three of four Republicans and four of five Democrats told CCFR pollsters that Washington should contribute U.S. troops to U.N. peacekeeping forces if asked to do so. In December, 81 percent of Republican voters said they assumed that Bush also favours participation, while 60 percent of Democrats took that view.

As in the CCFR poll in July, PIPA found relatively little bipartisan support for increasing the U.S. defence budget in December, although Republican sentiment was split down the middle. On this issue, however, both Republicans (70 percent) and Democrats (79 percent) told PIPA in December they thought the administration would push for such an increase.

On the question of Iraq, the latest survey found substantial consensus for the U.S. to keep its troops there for now, with only 10 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of Democrats saying they wanted to total withdrawal over the next six months. As for a possible increase in troops, a plurality of 47 percent of Republicans favoured it, while 42 percent wanted the current levels maintained or reduced. Among Democrats, only 21 percent favour an increase.

Contrary to their wishes, however, most of the public, including 57 percent of Republicans and 74 percent of Democrats believe Bush will increase troops levels over the next six months.

At the same time, the latest polls showed a strong bipartisan consensus that Washington should withdraw its troops if the new Iraqi government so requests – 60 percent of Republicans and 85 percent of Democrats took that position. A similar consensus was found in opposition to the U.S. establishing permanent bases in Iraq.

The December poll also found very large majorities of both Republicans (83 percent) and Democrats (71 percent) agreeing that U.N. members should "step in with military force and stop the genocide in Darfur, Sudan", with nearly two-thirds of voters in both parties also agreeing that the U.S. should contribute troops to such an operation.

When the word "genocide" was omitted from the question, support for action remained almost as high among voters from both parties.

On Iran, the December poll found strong support for the U.S. trying to deal with Teheran through building better relations rather than through military threats or action, with 61 percent of Republicans and 86 percent of Democrats agreeing with such a strategy.

The poll, however, found wide disagreement as to what Bush is actually likely to do. Nearly 60 percent of Republicans say he will take the peaceful path; two-thirds of Republicans predict confrontation.

Nearly three-quarters of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats said they believe the U.S. should let the European Union (EU) take the lead in dealing with Iran’s nuclear programme, as opposed to the U.S. going its own way. Two-thirds of Republicans predicted Bush will follow the EU; only 48 percent of Democrats said he would do so.

On North Korea, respondents were asked in December whether Washington should be willing to sign a non-aggression pact and provide Pyongyang with more aid in exchange for North Korea’s giving up its nuclear programme, even though those concessions might not be sufficient to strike a deal.

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats agreed with such an approach. When food aid was added as an additional condition, Republicans split on the issue, while Democrats continued to support such a deal.

While two-thirds of Republicans said they though Bush would also accept such a package, only 51 percent of Democrats agreed.

PIPA found a strong bipartisan consensus on climate change, with 59 percent of Republicans and 74 percent of Democrats favouring "legislation that limits U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases".

Even larger majorities favoured higher fuel efficiency standards for car manufacturers, even though the costs of buying or leasing cars would increase.