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TSUNAMI IMPACT: Priming for a Global Alert System

Hilmi Toros

PORT LOUIS, Mauritius, Jan 11 2005 (IPS) - Tsunamis may be as rare as they are ferocious and largely confined to the Pacific, but other major seas are also susceptible to such killer force – and not ready for it.

The Indian Ocean, for one, was not prepared on Dec. 26 when a tsunami was triggered by an underwater quake off Indonesia, leaving over 150,000 dead as it cut a swath of destruction that stretched to the African coast.

Only the Pacific has a tsunami warning system, with 85 percent of these killer waves occurring in that area.

Now, U.N. agencies and the United States are primed for the establishment of a global early warning system against tsunami and other similar natural calamities, as it emerged Tuesday, the second day of a 110-nation U.N. conference to combat the fragility of Small Island Developing Nations (SIDS).

UNESCO (U.N. Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation) is to present to the five-day conference a Global Strategy for the Establishment of a Tsunami Early Warning System, including one for the Indian Ocean.

"Tsunami can strike wherever there is a coastline," UNESCO Director-General Koichiro Matsuura announced. "Any early warning system, to be truly effective, must be global in scope."

He sees the Mediterranean, the Caribbean and Southwest Pacific also at risk. History records one of the most severe tsunamis in the Aegean Sea, while the Mediterranean and the Pacific coastline from Chile to the United States have also been battered in the past.

Other U.N. agencies, including the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), are expected to be involved in a global effort that will also encompass national governments.

Meanwhile, the United States is planning an early warning system on tsunami, IPS was informed by knowledgeable sources, and will announce it at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction scheduled to be held Jan. 18-22 in Kobe, Japan.

As the tsunami disaster becomes an all-encompassing issue, the Mauritius conference is also expected to give its "political" support to a global system, with the modalities to be finalised at Kobe next week.

In addition to the tsunami, the vulnerability of small island states was highlighted throughout 2004 when major storms lashed parts of the Caribbean sea and the Pacific and Indian oceans.

Technically, the U.N. meeting was told, establishing a global system will be easy and cost-effective – but may take years to become truly functional.

WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said advance notification is "not the end of the story," but only one step in an early warning system, part of a chain that involves teaching the public and officials what to do and establishing the infrastructure to enable people to escape and take shelter.

"People need to know what to do," he remarked. "Pro-active preparedness is vital."

With respect to the Dec. 26 tsunami, mere advance notification – had it existed – would not have been enough to prevent significant loss of life, because the area was simply not prepared for tsunami in terms of training and facilities, according to experts.

"Every one dollar spent on protection is equal to seven dollars in eventual relief," said Jarraud. He noted, for example, that Bangladesh has an effective disaster preparedness system that has reduced the loss of life in recent natural disasters, after a cyclone claimed 300,000 deaths in 1970.

While experts shy away from pinpointing the actual cost of a global network, Dr. Laura Cong, director of the Tsunami International Centre for Early Warning and Disaster Reduction and Preparedness in Hawaii, gave hints. A tide measuring device would be in the neighbourhood of 20,000 dollars and deep ocean buoys 250,000 dollars apiece, with the Indian Ocean alone needing around 50 of each.

"In the Pacific, we have been successful and can provide leadership in expanding it to other oceans including the Caribbean and the Mediterranean" seas, Dr. Cong said, adding that, once in place, the new system could be linked with the existing network.

The Hawaii centre considers an earthquake a tsunami warning, and asks people not to stay in low-lying coastal areas when that occurs. Sometimes, the sea level rises before a tsunami as a "natural warning" – a sign that people should not venture to the shore to watch.

"When you see the wave, you are too close to escape," says the Centre, adding: "Never try to surf a tsunami; tsunamis do not curl or break like surfing waves."

Tsunami and other natural disasters are regarded as one reason why SIDS should have "special support measures" if they are to integrate more fully into the world economy.

"Dramatic setbacks suffered as a result of major natural disasters have reinforced UNCTAD’s belief that economic vulnerability should be used as a paramount criterion in the treatment of SIDS by their development partners," says Carlos Fortin of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

As the Mauritius meeting closed its second day, delegates negotiated behind closed doors to reach agreement on the main document that would finally ensure implementation of a plan of action agreed in Barbados in 1994 to ease the consequences of the remoteness of some 37 SIDS.

The plan would entail "partnerships" with other nations, regional and inter-governmental organisations and civil society groups, to assist small island nations in areas such as trade, health, agriculture and communications.

Before its closure Friday, the conference will also produce a Mauritius Declaration, to reflect the "political will" of the meeting. Sources told IPS that the United States considered the first draft of the declaration unbalanced and tilting too heavily in favour of the Group of 77/China, a negotiating body that represents 135 developing nations.