BURMA: Power Struggle Stalls Constitutional Reforms

By Larry Jagan Reprint | | Print |

Larry Jagan

BANGKOK , Feb 15 2006 (IPS) - Constitutional reforms and democracy must wait until Myanmar’s top leader Gen. Than Shwe settles a power struggle with his deputy Gen. Maung Aye and the government completes shifting the national capital to Pyinmana in the central hills, 400 km north of Rangoon.

Talks at the National Convention (NC) which began on Dec.5 and intended to reform Burma’s constitution and take the military-ruled country closer to democracy and fresh elections, stalled on Jan. 31 with little prospect of resumption in the near future.

Than Shwe was obviously not anxious to move to the next stage of the national reconciliation process at least until his Union Solidarity Development Association (USDA), a community-based organisation, was ready to play a significant political role.

”Gen. Than Shwe doesn’t want to complete the constitution at least for another two years because, the USDA is not yet ready to be an effective political party,” a leading Burmese activist, Zaw Min of the DPNS told IPS.

”Gen. Than Shwe is currently focused on consolidating his own power and reducing Gen. Maung Aye’s, rather than on finishing the new constitution, conducting a referendum, and turning the USDA into a political party to fight the next elections,” according to the independent Burmese analyst Win Min who is based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.

Signs of the serious changes ahead in the military hierarchy emerged with the government’s announcement of the adjournment of the National Convention. The powerful regional commander of Rangoon and a Than Shwe loyalist, Lt. Gen. Myint Swe was replaced by a commander who is reportedly close to Maung Aye.

But Myint Swe, who also heads the new military intelligence bureau, was promoted to a new post as head of the Bureau of Special Operations and will oversee the Rangoon and Pyinmana commands. “He (Myint Swe) is expected to be brought into the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) in the next few months,” according to a senior Thai military intelligence officer, who deals with Burma.

There has also been a major shift of control with the police department handed over to the interior minister, Maj. Gen. Maung Oo, who is also a Than Shwe protégé. This effectively wrests power over the police from Maung Aye and appears to be another part of Than Shwe’s strategy of sidelining his deputy.

”Than Shwe may also try to transfer control of economic matters from Maung Aye to Myint Swe,” said Win Min. Although Burma’s two generals clearly mistrust each other, some military analysts believe their relationship is a natural balance of power and not a power struggle.

But, undoubtedly, Than Shwe is also pre-occupied with the hasty shift of the government and military to Pyinmana, a move that began in secret three months ago and is scheduled to be completed by the end of this month.

Contractors working on the new administrative centre have been ordered to complete all construction by the Mar. 27 – Armed Forces day – one of the military’s most important anniversaries and usually celebrated with enormous fanfare in Rangoon.

The next few weeks are bound to be dominated by the final stages of the move to the new centre, which most people believe will become the new capital in due course. In the meantime there will be no movement on the roadmap to democracy.

While this will increase frustration and anger amongst the Burmese people, there are no signs yet that this might explode into mass anti-government demonstrations like those that brought an end to Ne Win’s one-party dictatorship in 1988.

On Sunday Than Shwe accused the Western countries of trying to create trouble for his government by ”imposing economic sanctions” and by ”attempting to incite political instigations to hinder the momentum of national development,” in a message on ‘Union Day’ that marks the beginning of a struggle against British colonial rule which succeeded in 1948.

The United States has been calling for global support for the economic sanctions it has imposed on Myanmar and the European Union has in place travel bans on the country’s military leaders.

But the generals who have ruled Myanmar in one way or another since 1962, and maintain strong ties with neighbouring China, are in no hurry to restore democracy.

”The junta is intent on dragging out the national reconciliation process for at least another 12 months,” said a Rangoon-based western diplomat.

The NC has been meeting intermittently for more than a decade discussing the principles of a new constitution. It resumed its most recent deliberations in early December after a seven-month recess.

It has met three times since it reconvened in May 2004, following a revamp. But the main political parties, pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy – which together won nearly 90 percent of the seats at the 1990 elections – were excluded.

Pro-democracy activists have condemned the NC as lacking credibility. Without the participation of the political parties, the constitutional process is totally unrepresentative and undemocratic, they claim. ”No one or group is allowed to express concerns about the future federal union freely at the NC. Their contributions must be submitted to the authorities and are all censored,” said the Burmese activist Zaw Min of the of the Democratic Party New Society (DPNS).

”The NC is the first step in (former) prime minister Khin Nyunt’s seven-stage political roadmap,” Burma’s former foreign minister Win Aung told Inter Press Service (IPS) on the eve of the National Convention meeting nearly two years ago. The foreign minister, who was dumped months after he made these comments, also said he believed the referendum would be held in 2006 and new national elections scheduled for 2007.

That timetable seems to be far from the top general’s mind now. ”The NC is clearly a farce, no one believes in the process, not even the participants,” said a senior European diplomat. ”Senior General Than Shwe is simply playing for time.”