UKRAINE: Winner Headed for Opposition

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

BUDAPEST, Mar 28 2006 (IPS) - Ukrainians have shown just how disappointed they are with President Viktor Yushchenko, after his Our Ukraine party ended in a humiliating third place with just 15 percent of the vote.

With more than 90 percent of the votes counted, all main candidates have accepted the results, and Western observers declared the elections to be “free and fair”. Russia condemned certain irregularities but said the vote was “in line with the law.”

The parliamentary election saw the opposition Party of the Regions led by pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich emerge victorious with 31 percent of the vote.

But the biggest surprise of Sunday’s election was Yulia Timoshenko, with 22 percent of the vote.

Having been allies with Yushchenko in ousting the previous regime through a popular revolt in late 2004, Timoshenko was eventually fired from her post as prime minister after continuously clashing with the more liberal Yushchenko.

The infighting, together with a failure to combat corruption and declining living standards, led to deep disillusionment among the electorate, whose vote indicates the President has been blamed for the scuffle.

Yushchenko is further weakened by a new constitutional arrangement decreasing his powers and consolidating those of the prime minister, to be elected by parliament.

While no party will be able to govern by itself, the question now is who will form a successful coalition.

The most likely outcome would leave out winner Yanukovich. This is the option preferred by Timoshenko’s and Yushchenko’s westward followers, because it would mean reconciliation of the former ‘orange’ side.

Timoshenko has consistently asserted her determination to return to her old post and her willingness to negotiate a coalition with Our Ukraine.

Yushchenko’s liberal party, while not excluding reunification, is uncomfortable about populist Timoshenko heading the cabinet. But the surprising result in the election gives her the upper hand.

The Socialists, who have been in alliance with Yushchenko since he came to power, could be an important partner after gaining six percent of the vote. They have said their principles of free healthcare, free education and Ukraine’s neutrality will need to be taken into account in a new government that they join or support.

But issues such as re-privatisation, the transport of Russian gas, and accession to the North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) could become stumbling blocks.

Yanukovich also seeks a coalition, and has expressed willingness to work with any political force. Alexander Mikhelson, political observer for the Kiev-based analytical agency Glavred, told IPS that this “shows Yanukovich’s position is weak”.

While conceding that barring the election winner from government could worsen the feeling of exclusion of Eastern Ukrainians, Mikhelson said that Yanukovich would “endanger Ukraine’s western integration” and create a very “pro-Russian political and business environment.”

Yanukovich has said his main goal is to end the East-West split within the country and to act as a bridge between Russia and the West. He recently pledged that his party would always advocate “the principles of democracy and freedom.”

Whereas Timoshenko has systematically ruled out talks with him, Yushchenko, who will be holding consultations with all parties, is keeping the door open.

Such a coalition between Yushchenko and Yanukovich would face serious difficulties. Not only could orange supporters sense in it a betrayal, but on such salient issues such as federalisation, Euro-Atlantic integration, and the status of the Russian language, the parties are prone to clash.

But Dmytro Vydrin, director of the European Institute for Integration and Development, has argued that the possibility of such coalition is “higher than 50 percent”. Russian political scientist Vladimir Malenkovich says any other option would “preserve the existing split of the country.”

Yushchenko told a press conference that the elections posed “a unique chance to pursue a course of stability” and that a coalition should seek “unity around national values.”

Alarmed by the possibility of being left out of the ruling formation, Timoshenko reacted on TV claiming that “this is not unification of east and west, it is about supporting the biggest business clan”, in an allusion to business interests behind the Party of the Regions.

The President faces a tricky choice, and he will need to consider reactions beyond his country’s borders. His hard-fought deal for the price of Russian gas, essential to the economy, is likely to be challenged by whoever becomes prime minister.

While Yanukovich would plan to use his bonds with Russia to get a favourable review of the deal, and strongly opposes NATO integration, Timoshenko’s stances with Russia are more confrontational, and would certainly sour the delicate relationship towards the big neighbour.

Russia has said it is ready for “active dialogue” with the new leadership. Yushchenko’s choice will determine whether Ukraine will mend fences with Russia, or proceed on its Euro-Atlantic path.

The President has expressed pride in the democratic nature of the elections, and is aware the West will therefore be more ready to welcome him on board. Not losing any time, the Ukrainian Defence Ministry has announced it intends to present a draft plan for joining NATO. His coalition with Timoshenko therefore remains the most likely outcome of this week’s negotiations.