UKRAINE: Two Years On, Orange Revolution a Distant Memory

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

BUDAPEST, Dec 1 2006 (IPS) - Following the second anniversary of the ‘orange revolution’, a popular uprising against election rigging that rewarded pro-Western forces, the ‘orange’ supporters are not in a celebratory mood, as the man they ousted has returned to his post ever more powerful.

The pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich has managed to put his former rival and current President Viktor Yushchenko on the defensive by asserting his authority over the cabinet formed last August.

The anniversary celerbrations, mixed as they were, were held on Wednesday of last week. But introspection over the events of two years back continues.

In December 2004 Yushchenko was elected President of this post-Soviet country of 50 million, but conditions have changed as this year’s constitutional reform made the prime minister’s post more influential.

“Yanukovich becoming prime minister feels like being three years back. Society seems asleep,” Ostap Kryvdyk, a political activiss from one of the main movements behind the popular uprising told IPS.

“It’s a deep disappointment. We have a feeling of being tired from that time, when people spent hours and days doing things for this revolution,” says the former activist.

The disillusionment has been exacerbated by Yushchenko’s attempt to create a governing coalition with his rival Yanukovich.

Following parliamentary elections won by Yanukovich’s Party of the Regions, the two men agreed last August to form a “coalition of national unity” with Socialists and Communists, which for most pro-Western Ukrainians felt like a betrayal.

But Yushchenko has never felt at home in the new government, as indicated by the continued struggles over portfolios and policy. The coalition talks recently ended as parties failed to agree on the division of powers.

Several ministers from Our Ukraine have resigned and gone into opposition, leaving the President with only a handful of loyal ministries.

Yanukovich’s Party of the Regions leads what is left of the coalition and has in most cases been capable of imposing its will, whereas Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine Party is shattered by disagreements over the appropriateness of collaborating with a government dominated by its former arch-enemies.

Our Ukraine’s partial move to the opposition did nothing to improve relations between the President and the cabinet, and Ukraine has found itself in a most unusual situation, with members of an opposition party represented in the government.

The governmental unease began shortly after the coalition was tentatively established, mainly on foreign policy orientation and the recognition of Russian as an official language, a move opposed by Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine.

But also some less ideological yet politically sensitive disagreements could be witnessed over bills needed for accession into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and over anti-corruption legislation.

Although the Yanukovich government proclaimed entry into the WTO a priority, lifting restrictions in the agriculture, mining, metal and banking sectors could harm many voters and lobbyists influential in the government.

The anti-corruption bills proposed by Yushchenko, aimed at increasing responsibility for corrupt actions, were also badly received. The move would have established a system of background checks on candidates for governmental posts, reinforcing the President’s political influence.

The government has responded by starting its own anti-corruption efforts, launching an investigation against Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko, one of the few ministers loyal to Yushchenko. The ‘orange’ forces are dismissing claims of corruption as political persecution.

Yushchenko’s last hope of recovering power lies in a possible revision of the constitutional reform that weakened his power. The opposition argues the reform, hastily agreed during the popular uprisings in November 2004, bears procedural violations, but the final word belongs to Ukraine’s Constitutional Court.

Yushchenko has not only lost power, but is on the verge of losing his own party. Some of its most rebellious members have even speculated on setting up a new political force that could seek an alliance with Yulia Timoshenko.

Timoshenko, an orange revolutionary and former prime minister who Yushchenko, an old ally, dismissed over accusations of mismanagement in September 2005, is benefiting the most from the situation.

For some ‘orange’ supporters Timoshenko is surrounded by an aura of legitimate bearer of revolutionary values, but many in both the pro and anti-governmental sides remain suspicious of her claims to represent the only real opposition.

According to former revolutionary Kryvdyk, “Timoshenko’s activities while in government left many people disappointed.” He added that “orange people see no real leader for their views.”

The disarray within the ‘orange’ camp, and the economic stagnation of its governing period were among the main reasons why some Ukrainian voters switched sides, and now the Ukrainian economy is once again growing.

“After the instability of the ‘orange government’ businesses and people expected the new government to bring stability,” Pavlo Demchuk of the Kyiv Economics Institute told IPS.

However, while “a lot is being promised, very little is being done,” says Demchuk. “People hope things will be as good as they were, but their hopes are not being satisfied.”

The economist claims citizens still “want something else compared to what they had or have now,” but he acknowledges that for now they would be content “if not with improvement, at least stability.”