TURKEY: Constitutional Struggle Is Not Yet Over

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Jacques N. Couvas

ANKARA, Aug 2 2007 (IPS) - The election of the 11th president has returned to the table as a hot issue after the military declaration Monday evening that it stands by its views expressed in the spring on the profile of the next head of state.

The comment by General Yasar Buyukanit coincided with the announcement by the Supreme Electoral Board (YSK) of the timetable for a referendum to adopt a constitutional amendment package, which includes the election of the president by popular vote, in the French model, instead of appointment by parliament.

“The views of the Turkish Armed Forces do not vary from day to day,” Gen. Büyükanıt told the press at a reception celebrating the Turkish Cypriot Armed Forces Day. “We are fully behind what we said on April 12,” he added, referring to a keynote address on that date, in which he said the next president must “adhere in earnest, and not just in words, to (…) the ideal of a secular, democratic state.”

The military had remained quiet during the recent electoral campaign. Gen. Buyukanit’s comments were his first intervention in politics since the legislative elections of Jul. 22, which gave the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development (AK) Party a strong majority in the National Assembly, increased its popularity throughout the country, and grew its electorate by one-third, mainly from the conservative centre-right wing.

The presidential elections were due for last May, and the AKP had proposed its leader and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as its candidate. The General Staff’s position on Apr. 12 and the ensuing massive rallies in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir against his nomination forced him to withdraw.

But his replacement as candidate by minister for foreign affairs Abdullah Gul, a committed Islamist, fuelled additional nationwide demonstrations and encouraged Gen. Buyukanit to issue on Apr. 27 just before midnight a “memorandum”, posted on the Internet, warning the AKP that the armed forces would not tolerate any dilution of the strong secularist traditions of the nation.

The boycott of parliamentary sessions by the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP) led to repeated lack of quorum at the National Assembly and to Gul’s decision to withdraw his candidature, resulting in postponement of the presidential appointment. The AKP leadership seized the opportunity to call early legislative elections, advancing their date by four months.

Under the current constitution, 367 of the 550 MPs form a quorum for the presidential election by the Parliament. With 341 seats in the new legislature, AKP cannot fulfil such requirement alone. It will have to rely on parties other than CHP.

The Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and the 22 independent, mostly pro-Kurdish deputies, who on Monday applied to the parliament to form a political entity under the name of Democratic Society Party (DTP), have said they would participate in the vote.

This would enable parliament to proceed, but would not give AKP any guarantees that its candidate may be elected. The party’s strategy is, therefore, to curb any obstacles raised by the requirements of the current constitution by having the president elected directly by the citizens. With 46.7 percent of the vote, out of the 87 percent of Turks who voted Jul. 22, AKP feels comfortable about the outcome.

It is, however, still unclear whether the next president will be elected by the MPs under the present constitution, or by popular vote under a new one. Meanwhile, AKP is pressing for a constitutional reform package through referendum. Its process is now scheduled to begin Aug. 2, with the referendum taking place Oct. 21.

Many see in this referendum the opportunity to move from a constitution dictated by the armed forces in 1982, after a two-year military rule following the 1980 coup, towards a civil one. Named after the leader of the coup, Gen. Kenan Evren, the constitution has been revised 13 times in 25 years, and 74 of its articles have been amended or repealed. Constitutionalists perceive it as a patchwork that cannot satisfy the demands of a modern democracy.

AKP started working during the presidential crisis on a text, which will be discussed by the National Assembly in the forthcoming weeks. The aim is to align Turkey’s chart to that of European democracies and facilitate future harmonisation of EU legislation in the country.

The main areas addressed are human rights, freedom of thought and expression, women and children’s rights, reduced presidential powers in a number of areas, and judicial review of the acts of the head of state and certain administrations that currently are off-limits to parliamentary control.

Perhaps the most radical provision contemplated is the exclusion from the constitution of the Security Council (MGK) that brings together the top military and political leaders and defines the country’s overall direction, especially in periods of internal or external challenges.

It is the authority that effectively keeps civilian governments in check. It is unlikely that the text in preparation will propose its abolition, but its functions are likely to be reduced to those of a consultative body, whose recommendations will not be binding upon the government.

Opinions even within AKP are divided as to the shape of the reform. Should it be an overhauled or a brand new constitution? Supporters of the latter approach are becoming increasingly vocal. According to them, a refurbished constitution will still be a military one with some improvements. The country, they contend, needs to cross over to Western governance standards and give people the freedoms necessary for a modern society to perform freely in all areas and to prosper. This is music to the ears of intellectuals and entrepreneurs alike, and their support to AKP’s initiative appears to be guaranteed.

The final content and adoption process will be even more difficult to agree upon. The four parties in parliament, AKP, CHP, MHP, and DTP represent the votes cast during the last elections, but there are in Turkey 30 political formations, 14 of which presented legislative candidates. Will their voices be heard?

As the new constitution will include human rights and other citizen freedoms, civil society, represented by several activist groups, expects to have a say too. It is an easy bet to make that the dominant subject for debate among politicians, journalists and intellectuals will over the next three months be the relative influence of all stakeholders in the formulation of the chart.

The timing for this reform, so close to his July electoral triumph, may be whetting Erdogan’s appetite to confine, in all legitimacy and by popular demand, the General Staff’s role to defence matters only, and to subject it to civilian control through the parliament. This would be truly revolutionary by Turkish precedents.

However, General Buyukanit’s comments this week should awaken many politicians and constitutionalists back to reality. Neither the General Staff nor the majority of the population are prepared to see military wings clipped. Turkish society is capable of reconciling Islam with Western lifestyle.