TURKEY: Now to Jobs and Education

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Jacques N. Couvas

ANKARA, Sep 19 2007 (IPS) - While two-thirds of the country fasts in this holy month of Ramazan, the Turkish version of Ramadan, and activities slow down during the day, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to get to grips with the post-electoral challenges of his government.

Unemployment figures published Monday by the national statistics bureau (TUIK) show no change between the months of June 2006 and 2007. The rate remains at 8.8 percent, while the population has been increasing by 1.3 percent annually, and is about to reach the 73 million mark.

This is the official picture, based on a computation method that is not always consistent with models used by international institutions. For instance, many of those reported as employed do casual, marginal or unpaid work. This is particularly true of family members, such as women and children. In 2003, they made for 20 percent of the registered workforce.

In addition, between five and six percent of those declared as having a job are considered underemployed. This leads to a parallel economy and moonlighting, which is largely tolerated.

The other side of the coin is not brighter. Employment rate has in the 12 months to June 2007 remained unchanged at 49.3 percent, says TUIK. The World Bank’s estimates show however that the actual figure is closer to 43 percent.

Employment and unemployment ratios do not, in general, add up to 100, because of the method of calculation and the fact that, for instance, unemployed people may after a while get out of the statistical system for a number of reasons, but they do not qualify for inclusion in the employment data. Also, some jobs, like the military, are not necessarily counted in the statistics.

In the Eurozone, for example, employment is 65 percent while unemployment is 6.7 percent; in Canada the figures are 61.2 percent and 6 percent respectively.

Turkey’s benchmark for employment is the European Union-15 average of 65 percent. Despite an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 percent, this objective looks a remote target under current trends.

More worrying, however, is the fact that half of the workforce has no social security insurance and protection. The situation is worse in agricultural occupations, with 88.1 percent uninsured. Among industry and services workers, 32.8 percent lack such benefits.

Poverty remains at a high 18.7 percent according to the government, but at 27 percent in the World Bank’s estimates. The gross national income (GNI) per capita is 4,750 dollars.

In comparison, Bulgaria, with GNI per capita of 3,510 dollars, has a poverty headcount of 6.1 percent. On GNI per capita, some other Balkan states, namely Greece and Croatia, outperform Turkey with 16,610 dollars and 8,350 dollars respectively.

There are wide discrepancies in Turkish society. Income per household varies tremendously between the major urban areas of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir on the one hand, and the provincial towns and rural areas on the other. Such differences are, however, also noticeable from neighbourhood to neighbourhood in large cities.

Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development (AK) party has benefited from this social imbalance and made the disadvantaged regions of the country its strongholds. Unemployment and cost of living rated high in the dissatisfaction lists of respondents to opinion polls prior to the last two parliamentary elections, at 31 and 22 percent respectively.

To make a convincing case before the polls, AKP has consistently used employment, education, health, justice, and security as its battle horses. Although security may be cured through the government’s conciliatory strategy in the Kurdish issue, which shows preference for a negotiated solution with the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) and the Kurds of northern Iraq, justice, health and education are in a limbo situation.

Chances are that justice will improve through the reforms contemplated in the new constitution in preparation, but health and education require massive investment and reforms, for which the government does not seem to have a tangible plan.

Kicking off the new school year Monday, Erdogan promised that education will get the lion’s share in the 2007-8 budget. Teacher unions have, in response, expressed doubt, and concern that the government has a minimalist view of the schooling system of the country.

Speaking at a press conference this week, Suayip Ozcan, chairman of the Turkish Education Personnel Union (TES), underlined the low income levels of teachers and other education personnel, noting that to meet Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) standards, Turkey needs to recruit over 300,000 teachers, as opposed to the 25,000 promised by the ministry of education.

Turkey has 15 million elementary and high school students spread over 362,000 classrooms. This, according to the unions, results in large classes of 60 and 53 pupils each on average in primary and secondary education respectively. Teaching staff point to one toilet per 145 students and one sports hall per 5,412.

These shortages lead to poor preparation of students for the next level of education. School attendance is already lower than that of neighbouring countries, with only 90 percent of the children going to primary school and 16 percent attending higher levels.

Literacy, in spite of a predominantly young population, is therefore lagging at 87 percent, compared with 97 and 99 percent in Romania and Russia respectively.

Education is therefore becoming a focal point in government’s domestic strategy, but not only for these reasons.

Throughout the previous legislature, AKP has tried to pass reforms to enhance the status of Islamic high schools, whose students under the current system are discriminated against for accessing universities, and to transfer the responsibility for education policy from the president of the republic to the government.

Such attempts were repeatedly blocked by the former head of state, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, an uncompromising secularist. But the topic remains dear to the Prime Minister, whose higher education was hampered because of his attendance of a religious college for prayer leaders and preachers.

The new constitution will most likely transfer these powers and terminate the restrictions imposed upon practising Muslim students, including a ban on the Islamic headscarf at school.

Will its majority in the parliament enable AKP to win this battle? Not so sure. Secularism is still for most Turks strongly associated with national identity; the outcome of a referendum on the constitution is therefore less than granted.

As the sound of drums of the two consecutive historical victories of July and August phases down in the ranks of the AKP, Erdogan will have to face friends and foes with increased pragmatism.