EUROPE: Kosovo Sends Out Ripples of Fear

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

PRAGUE, Jan 26 2008 (IPS) - The possibility of Kosovo gaining independence has sparked a debate in central-eastern Europe on whether the Serbian region could set a precedent in prioritising the right to self-determination over state sovereignty.

The Central and Eastern European countries only seem to agree in that the European Union (EU) should take an active role in shaping Kosovo&#39s future without neglecting Serbia&#39s needs, but they have showed different degrees of restraint in commenting on the Serbian breakaway region&#39s independence.

Kosovo officials claim there is no more room for negotiations, and say the declaration of independence could be a matter of days. They also have stated this will be done in coordination with international partners.

Russia is expected to veto any U.N. resolution recognising Kosovo&#39s independence, after which commentators believe the U.S. will recognise the breakaway region followed by Western Europe and eventually Eastern Europe.

Belgrade, which wants to at least formally retain Kosovo, will most likely temporarily recall its ambassadors from countries that recognise the region&#39s sovereignty.

Serbia&#39s northern neighbour Hungary says it wants a unified EU position on Kosovo, and has supported the UN Secretary-General&#39s report on Kosovo recommending a settlement without delay, but it is also considering the importance of having a stable neighbour and economic partner which is home to 300,000 ethnic Hungarians.

Budapest is aware that it will be up to the great powers to decide Kosovo&#39s future and that Hungary could gain Serbia&#39s forgiveness by demanding extensive minority rights for the Serbians left in Kosovo and promoting the neighbour&#39s accession to the EU.

The Czech Republic and Slovakia have also made statements indicating they oppose linking Serbia&#39s EU aspirations to anything concerning Kosovo.

"Hungary understands that Serbia losing Kosovo could turn it into a very unstable neighbour, so it is trying to position itself somewhere in the middle and keep its minority safe," Martin Shabu, an analyst at the Prague-based Association for International Affairs told IPS.

The Hungarian community in the northern Serbian region of Vojvodina fears an influx of refugees from the 100,000 ethnic Serbians living in Kosovo.

Ethnic Hungarian leaders in the region have warned Serbian authorities of the existence of a constitutional guarantee guarding against changes in the region&#39s ethnic mix, but it has been pointed out that Kosovo Serbs tend to prefer southern Serbia.

Kosovo&#39s independence has also received lukewarm reactions from ethnic Hungarian politicians in Serbia who believe their efforts to seek autonomy will be thwarted.

Hungary has never made any claims on former Yugoslav territory but citizens of Vojvodina are also weary of a growth in Serbian radicalism as a consequence of yet another territorial loss for Belgrade.

"Kosovo&#39s secession from Serbia will not set a precedent but the rights granted to ethnic Serbs can indeed serve as a point of reference for the Hungarian communities beyond the borders," leading Hungarian daily Nepszabadsag wrote on Nov. 30.

Slovakia, Romania and Serbia, among others, are home to substantial ethnic Hungarian communities who aspire to obtain autonomy or greater minority rights.

In all the aforementioned countries politicians representing ethnic Hungarians have stepped up demands for autonomy, bringing them harsh verbal attacks from political forces that fear a &#39Kosovo precedent&#39.

Slovakia and Romania have declared they will not accept a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo and would prefer a solution in the framework of international law and with Serbia&#39s agreement.

Slovakia&#39s and Romania&#39s stance is believed to originate from its fears that ethnic Hungarians will become more vociferous in their demands for self-determination, possibly leading to irredentism.

A recent EU summit calling Kosovo an exceptional and unrepeatable case encouraged the Slovak government to come closer to the EU&#39s mainstream position. The Slovak Prime Minister had advocated "wide-ranging autonomy" for Kosovo, a solution he staunchly opposes with regards to his country&#39s 500,000 ethnic Hungarians.

"There has been talk of autonomy recently but in Slovakia this is not viable at the moment. It would be very difficult to use Kosovo as a precedent, unlike the Kurds who have a history of fighting for independence and declarations of statehood," Shabu told IPS.

In Slovakia the position supporting Serbia&#39s right to sovereignty has been voiced by both governing and opposition forces except the opposition Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK), which together with many Slovak experts believes Bratislava&#39s stance will harm its image in the West.

"Pan-Slavism and Russophile orientation are perhaps interesting views, but they are always subject to Russian imperialist interests," SMK chairman Pal Csaky commented in the press.

Even in the Czech Republic, whose government has taken a mainstream approach to Kosovo, media have criticised the lack of solidarity towards Serbia. "Czechs and Serbs have always been close…when bad times hit us, like in fall 1938 or in August 1968, Serbs always stood by our side. Serbs are now experiencing similarly traumatic moments," Czech left-wing daily Pravo wrote in a criticism of its foreign minister&#39s visit to Kosovo capital Pristina.

While Kosovo has exceptionally brought together Russian and Central-Eastern European views on an international affair, in central Europe analysts mostly believe Russia&#39s support for Serbia is aimed at gaining bargaining points for Moscow in its dealings with Washington while keeping a positive image in Belgrade.

Greece and Spain are also sceptical of the mostly ethnic Albanian region&#39s independence, but only Cyprus will refuse to recognise the possibility of another state appearing in the turbulent Balkans region.