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Q&A: "Climate Change Is Like Tossing a Pebble in a Calm Pond"

Interview with archaeologist Brian Fagan

SAN DIEGO, United States, May 28 2008 (IPS) - In his new book "The Great Warming, Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilisations", author and archaeologist Dr. Brian Fagan peers into the past to offer a prologue to the growing climate crisis.

His book gives a detailed and methodical account of the era between the 10th and 15th centuries known as the Great Warming Period among earth scientists.

Apparently, we have a lot learn from the ordinary lives of European yeoman and Mongolian horsemen in regards to living with climate change. As it is, rising temperatures had a profound affect throughout much of Medieval Europe and population centres around the world.

Dr. Fagan points out there were clear winners and losers. The Northern climes of Europe benefited, in part from prolonged growing seasons that lead to agricultural surpluses. Great gothic Cathedrals emerged from that era. English vintners, for example, produced wine for export to France, much to the chagrin of French merchants.

However, the already arid regions of the U.S. Southwest withered under a prolonged drought, leading to the eventual abandonment of settlements like Chaco Canyon. Societies unwilling or unable to adapt faced far worse fates, such as mass starvation and total collapse.

Dr. Fagan refrains from ranting. Instead he offers an even-handed narrative based on information gleaned from scientific data and historical weather records to depict the fate of lost civilisations.

Fagan is more worried about the near future. Humans have coped and even overcome the challenges of climate change in the past. However, in an age of rampant human-made global warming, the outcome is far from certain. Left unchecked, greenhouse gas emissions are a prelude to disaster, he warns.

IPS correspondent Enrique Gili spoke to Dr. Fagan from his home in Santa Barbara, California.

IPS: You acknowledge in your notes that the theories and the information you present is contested quite vigorously and often. Did you anticipate this kind of response when you wrote "The Great Warming"?

BF: Yes I did. It's kind of over now, this huge debate about whether global warming exists or not. And there's a constant pressure for anyone writing or talking about climate change is to take sides. I studiously have not taken sides. But the debate is over. It's a non-issue. The issue now is how we live with it, which is a much larger problem.

IPS: In the book you point out that global warming was an influencer but not a driver of a lot of major historical events, like the Mongols pushing out from the high steppes into Central Europe.

BF: You can't go around saying that climate caused this or caused that. This just doesn't fly. The world is more complex. The analogy I always give is throwing a pebble into a calm pond. There's a point of impact and ripples come out from the point of impact that gradually subside. Very often it's the ripples, the consequences of climate change, social and economic, that are the big drivers. That's really my argument. Climate change can be an important factor but it's not the only one.

IPS: In these ancient societies there were several responses. Elites exerted greater social control and people turned to ritual and ceremony, or changed their surroundings, with mixed results.

BF: The Maya in Central America – that was a very top-heavy society and basically when there were droughts, environmental stress, social disorder, that all fell apart. They were in a vulnerable position and so are we. We live in larges cities; there are many, many more of us. And our option, short of staying where we are, is to move, which of course is impossible.

IPS: Unless we colonise Mars.

BF: Of course, there are people out there advocating that. Get a life. We have to deal with the problem in front of us.

IPS: Isn't it fair to say some of these societies weathered the warming better than others?

BF: Yes they did. The big advantages belong to societies that are on a small scale and flexible, with strong kin ties that look after each other, very different from the big anonymous industrialised societies of today. Quite apart from the fact there were many fewer people around, it's much easier to sway with the storm when you're a small-scale village society or hunter-gatherers.

IPS: We live in a global and networked society. Shouldn't we be at a comparative advantage compared to our ancestors?

BF: Yes, we are for a number of reasons. Number one, we have far better sources for instant information. You can press a button on your computer and find the climate in Lhasa, Tibet in a few seconds. Number two, we have extremely sophisticated computer models, which enable us to predict climatic change and certainly the weather. And this gives us a tremendous advantage. The great thing we have is the power of information.

IPS: So what lessons can we learn from the book?

BF: First off, you can have all the technology in the world. But what ultimately will guide our relationship with the environment, and living with global warming, is human nature. Our intellect has not changed since 50,000 years ago. We love, think, hate, talk, negotiate, and argue…All these complicated qualities are uniquely human and make us opportunists and innovators. Humans have found all sorts of different solutions and have had all sorts of suffering as a result of climate change. When people have been successful, it's the quality of thought and ingenuity, not our technology.

IPS: That's a hopeful note.

BF: I am optimistic. I'm tired of doomsday predictions. Yes, we have problems. Yes, it's serious. I hate the word crisis. But we've got to be realistic. Once we're realistic, we'll rise to the challenge. There's no other way to look at life.

*Enrique Gili is a freelance writer living in San Diego.