Development & Aid, Environment, Tierramerica

Kyoto Protocol

Oct 1 2003 (IPS) - The Kyoto Protocol has suffered a setback that threatens its very existence. Russian president Vladimir Putin stated Sep. 29 that his country is undecided as to whether it will ratify the international accord for curbing emissions of greenhouse gases.

The signature of Russia alone, which hosted the latest United Nations Conference on Climate Change, would be enough for the Protocol to enter into force.

Established in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty that has set a goal that by 2008 to 2012 the industrialized countries will reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by five percent below their 1990 rates. Failure to meet the target could force a country to cut back its industrial production.

Although the initial draft of the Protocol lacked specifics, beginning with the Marrakech meetings in late 2001, five main points were defined: legally binding commitments for industrialized countries; alternative implementation methods to emissions reductions (joint implementation); minimization of impacts in developing countries, including assistance to diversify their economies; reports and assessment by a team of experts and compliance evaluated by a committee.

As a complement to the 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, the first international agreement to deal with the issue, the Kyoto Protocol is a response to growing concern that gases emitted by human activities, particularly carbon dioxide, contribute to the greenhouse effect and to climate change.

More frequent heat waves, floods, and drought are predicted as a result of the average global temperature increasing by one to 3.5 degrees centigrade by 2001, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, founded in 1988, and entrusted with providing scientific information for the Kyoto Protocol.

The Protocol will take effect once it is ratified by 55 countries, including those responsible for 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. As of Sep. 29, 2003, 84 countries had signed and 119 had ratified or adhered to the protocol, but the refusal of the United States — which alone produces 25 percent of the world's greenhouse gases — means the survival of the treaty falls to Russia.

Washington based its withdrawal from the Protocol on arguments that curbing emissions would be too much of an economic burden and that the scientific research linking emissions with global warming are questionable.

The aim of the Putin government is to double Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) within a decade, bringing with it an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and thus requiring costly investment if the country is to meet the Protocol goals. Without Russia, the future of the Kyoto Protocol is uncertain indeed.