POLITICS-SOUTH ASIA: Hope and Hiccups for Peace in Kashmir

By Ranjit Devraj Reprint | | Print |

Ranjit Devraj

NEW DELHI, Nov 16 2004 (IPS) - Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s two-day visit to Kashmir beginning Wednesday holds out the promise of a new deal for the territory wracked by Islamic separatists and by a dispute over its possession with adjoining Pakistan for more than half-a-century.

Anxious to set a conducive atmosphere, the mild-mannered Singh announced, last week, troop reductions in the Indian-controlled part of the territory ignoring criticism by hard-liners particularly in the opposition pro-Hindu, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that he was compromising on security.

According to officials, the troop reductions involve some 9,000 infantrymen engaged in counter-insurgency operations rather than formations deployed along the Line of Control (LoC) that separates the Indian and Pakistan controlled parts of the former princely state.

India maintains more than 500,000 troops in Kashmir as a response to a violent phase of separatism that began 15 years ago and to repeated inconclusive wars with Pakistan, the last of them in 1999 at Kargil on the LoC.

Islamabad lost no time in welcoming Singh’s announcement on Nov. 11 with an official spokesman saying that ”the decision on the eve of Id will have a salutary impact on Kashmir.”

The Hindu festival of lights, Diwali, and the Muslim Id usually happen within days of each other and offer a good opportunity to build up goodwill between the two major communities in both countries.

Last year, New Delhi used the festival season to announce the restoration of direct air and rail links between the two countries, which were suspended after both nuclear-armed neighbours came to the brink of an all-out war in 2002.

More than the largely symbolic troop reductions, India’s Interior Minister Shivraj Patil has announced that the Indian government was now prepared to allow members of the All-Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) – consisting mostly of separatist Kashmiri political leaders – to visit Pakistan and meet militant leaders there to thrash out a solution to the Kashmir dispute.

”The Home Minister saying that he will allow the Hurriyat to go (to Pakistan) is more important than the troop reductions,” said Prem Shankar Jha a well-known columnist who has long been involved in informal dialogues with Kashmir leaders, in a bid to encourage a political settlement to the issue.

The Hurriyat, though, has taken a tough stand on the issue with its chairman Mirwaiz Omer Farooq announcing on Tuesday that it would be pointless for its members to meet Singh until they were allowed to travel to Pakistan first.

”We have applied for visas and if we get them then we will be prepared to talk,” he told television channels in Srinagar, Kashmir’s capital.

Farooq has also made it known that the Hurriyat expected more from Singh than economic packages. Among the demands made are ”the release of innocent people languishing in jails for many years and an end to human rights violations.”

Nonetheless, both army excesses and incidents of violence by separatist militant groups have been continuing.

Last week Kashmir was in uproar over the alleged rape of a woman and her young daughter by an army officer. Also, the eve of Singh’s departure for Srinagar was marred by news of the massacre of six ‘Ikhwans’ or pro-government activists in Kashmir’s Budgam district on Monday.

Singh is not likely to be swayed by the tough stand of the Hurriyat, which the Indian government has accused of taking instructions from Islamabad.

The Indian prime minister can take comfort in the fact that his Congress Party is the main partner in the elected provincial government of Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Syed and that there has been considerable progress in peace initiatives with Pakistan initiated on the sidelines of regional summit in Islamabad in January.

A joint press statement issued at the Islamabad summit on Jan. 6 dramatically said: ”President Musharraf reassured (then) Prime Minister (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee that he will not permit any territory under Pakistan’s control to be used to support terrorism in any manner.”

Since then there has been a dramatic decline in what India calls ”cross-border terrorism” although some analysts here are inclined to believe that such activity has been checked effectively by New Delhi by the building of a high fence along the LoC complete with electronic sensors and thermal imaging equipment to detect unauthorised movement.

Although Islamabad has officially protested against the building of the fence it, nevertheless, cooperated silently by announcing a ceasefire along the LoC in November 2003 and has stuck to it since.

”The fence coupled with better surveillance and vigilant troops have played a significant role in the reduction of infiltration from across the border,” said India’s Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee at a press briefing on Friday..

Mukherjee also said the decision to reduce troops was the direct result of lowered instances of infiltration.

Preparations are currently underway in New Delhi to receive Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz next week when the two sides are expected to discuss the Kashmir issue including proposals made by Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf for a sector-wise opening up of the LoC for travel.

Musharraf’s proposal for a limited opening of the LoC was first made through the press and that irked New Delhi. But ever since Islamabad made a formal presentation for discussions on the issue to the Indian government, tempers have cooled down.

Singh himself has said that a sharp fall in incidents of infiltration, as promised by Musharraf, have greatly contributed to the building up of an atmosphere conducive to talks when Aziz arrives on Nov. 23.

”Both Pakistan and India are committed to finding credible, effective and mutually satisfactory solutions to all outstanding problems,” he said in reply to queries from reporters ahead of his trip to Kashmir.