EU: Turkey on the Doorstep, Again

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis by Stelios Fotinos

ATHENS, Sep 26 2005 (IPS) - Next Monday will give the start to one of Europe’s longest political hurdle runs with the opening of the EU-Turkey accession talks expected to last 10 to 15 years – if all goes well.

The launch of the talks follows a month-long period of intensive negotiations, mostly among members of the European Union (EU), to agree on a common EU reaction to a Turkish refusal to open its ports and airports to Cypriot vessels and aircrafts. Turkey says this would imply recognition of the (Greek-Cypriot) Republic of Cyprus.

Turkey’s recognition of Cyprus, which joined the EU in May last year, has become a key issue in the face of the argument that Turkey should not hope to join a bloc when it does not recognise one of its members. The island of Cyprus is divided into a Turkish-Cypriot north and a Greek-Cypriot south since Turkish troops landed on the island after a Greek-led coup attempt in 1974.

The division of Cyprus has led to a deep division among the EU countries. A France-led group including Greece, Denmark and of course Cyprus considered such recognition a pre-condition to the Oct. 3 talks. Britain, the current EU president, emerged as Turkey’s strongest supporter in the EU under indirect but heavy U.S. pressure. Across these differences, the EU common reaction, known as the counter-statement to the Turkish refusal to recognise Cyprus, was at last approved by the EU permanent representatives Sep. 22, paving the way for next week’s talks.

The approved text appears to satisfy everybody without making anybody happy except Britain, and possibly Turkey.

It does not reject the Turkish refusal to open its ports and airports to Cypriot ships and aircraft, it “regrets” it. It does not demand but “expects” the removal (by Turkey) of all obstacles to the free movement of goods, including restrictions on means of transport.

It says the EU will “monitor” the opening of Turkish harbours and airports closely and “evaluate” its full implementation in 2006, and that Turkey’s failure to implement its obligations in full will “affect” the progress in EU-Turkey negotiations – but not necessarily block it.

The same applies to the real issue at stake beyond the access to ports and airports. The EU says in its statement that recognition of all member states is “a necessary component” (not a pre-requisite) of the EU-Turkey accession process. It underlines the importance the EU attaches to normalisation of relations between Turkey and all EU member states “as soon as possible.” No deadline..

On the key issue of a comprehensive settlement to the division of the island of Cyprus, the EU statement agrees on “supporting” United Nations efforts, something that Cyprus and its supporters want the EU to play a more active and decisive role in.

The EU text, therefore, appears far softer than what France, Greece, Denmark and Cyprus wanted, and only slightly harder than what Britain apparently wished.

So Turkey will get the accession talks starting in time with no pre-conditions, no threats of penalties, no severely defined time frame for recognising Cyprus, and no clear, immediate risk of stopping the accession negotiations.

In turn, Cyprus and its supporters ended up only formally cheering the EU text and considering it a political victory. But Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos accepted it with misgivings.

“Despite the broad support of our positions by a large number of EU member states, the British presidency, from the start, did not fulfil its duties as presiding country,” Papadopoulos said. “Instead, it promoted its own positions, overlooking the wishes of the rest of the member states.”

With nearly 75 million potential consumers, a gross national income per capita of almost 2,800 dollars, a relatively high life expectancy (68 years for men and 73 years for women), and still cheap labour, Turkey is moving towards the EU, at least as far as the negotiation exercise is concerned.