CHALLENGES 2006-2007: Emboldened Opposition, but Few Real Reforms in Egypt

By Adam Morrow Reprint | | Print |

Adam Morrow

CAIRO, Dec 24 2006 (IPS) - Domestically, the past year was a watershed for Egypt. It witnessed the emergence an empowered Muslim Brotherhood controlling roughly one-fifth of the parliament; a rebellion by reformist elements of the judiciary; and an embattled president vowing – but not yet delivering – a new era of political reform.

On the diplomatic front, Cairo continued to pursue a strategy based largely on its longtime proximity to Washington, despite widespread misgivings regarding the wisdom of U.S. policy in the region.

The year 2005 had come to a dramatic close when the banned Muslim Brotherhood fielding candidates as nominal independents scored greater than expected electoral victories in hotly contested three-round parliamentary races.

Throughout the elections, there were widespread reports of voting irregularities, particularly in the hard-fought third and final round. In a number of cases, violent encounters were reported between security forces and would-be voters.

When the dust had settled, the Islamist group had captured a total of 88 seats in the 444-member People’s Assembly, up from only 15 seats previously – to the consternation of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) headed by longtime president Hosni Mubarak.

Despite unexpected Brotherhood gains, however, the ruling party maintained more than the two-thirds majority necessary to control legislation. Highlighting the weakness of the secular opposition, meanwhile, smaller non-religious parties such as the Nasserist and socialist parties won a mere nine seats between them.

Despite continued NDP control of the assembly, however, parliament watchers say that the higher proportion of seats held by Brotherhood-affiliated representatives has noticeably changed the dynamic in parliament over the last year.

The widespread reports of electoral fraud triggered another confrontation that would mark much of 2006: a concerted push by the judiciary to achieve greater political independence from an authoritarian executive.

What later became known as the “Judges’ Rebellion” began when a handful of pro-reform judges openly accused the government of fixing elections and intimidating voters during the parliamentary poll. The allegations prompted furious reaction from Cairo, which charged the mutinous judges with “tarnishing the image” of the Egyptian judicial system.

A tribunal in May largely exonerated the rebellion’s two leaders, but their drawn-out prosecution at the hands of the government galvanized the opposition, which took to the streets in protest.

As the two judges went on trial, the capital witnessed a string of popular demonstrations, with protestors demanding judicial independence, electoral reform and an end to an unpopular emergency law that grants the state wide-ranging powers of arrest. The protests, which drew participants from across the spectrum of the political opposition, were met with surprising aggression on the part of security personnel.

Despite continued campaigning by the opposition, an unpopular Judicial Authority Law was pushed through the People’s Assembly in June by the ruling party’s parliamentary majority. According to critics, the new legislation will keep the judiciary under the firm control of the executive, as well as restrict judicial supervision over future elections.

Nevertheless, the reformist Cairo Judges Club which spearheaded the opposition campaign has vowed to continue its call for judicial independence.

This year the triple bomb attacks in the Red Sea resort town of Dahab in April which killed 18 people, including five foreign tourists, again raised the specter of domestic terrorism and the potential devastation of the tourism industry, Egypt’s premiere foreign-currency earner.

It was not the first such incident in recent history. In October of 2004, the resort towns of Taba and Nuweiba were similarly hit by a string of explosions that killed 30 people. Less than a year later, another spate of bomb attacks in the resort city of Sharm El-Sheikh in the southern Sinai Peninsula killed more than 80.

As with the earlier bombings, the Dahab attacks were followed by mass arrests, mostly of local Sinai residents of Bedouin origin. While government sources ultimately attributed the attacks to a shadowy Islamic group known as Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad, later alleged to have connections with Palestinian militant factions, official information about the group remains sparse.

While the impact on tourism proved unexpectedly light, the Dahab bombings yielded another unwelcome result: in late April, the government officially extended the duration of the emergency law for another two years. The decision to extend the unpopular law which has been in place since the assassination of late President Anwar Sadat in 198, was approved by the ruling party’s parliamentary majority despite outspoken resistance by opposition MPs.

Pointing to the earlier attacks in Dahab, government officials defended the law, saying it was needed to prosecute the ongoing fight against terrorism. Opposition groups and rights activists, however, condemned the move, claiming that the law’s primary function was to smother political dissent.

Reformists were briefly disappointed again in July, when parliament approved a press law upholding the government’s right to imprison journalists for perceived publication offences such as libel. The law, heavily criticised by journalists’ associations and press freedom activists, came despite earlier promises by President Mubarak to abolish the practice of jailing reporters and editors for so-called press violations.

However, after dozens of independent newspapers refused to publish their Sunday editions in protest, Mubarak requested that the new legislation be amended to guarantee journalists protection from imprisonment. While reporters can no longer receive jail terms for libeling state officials, according to the final version of the law, they can still be subject to steep monetary penalties.

Diplomatically, meanwhile, Cairo maintained its close relationship with Washington. Together with traditional U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and Jordan, Egypt joined a new axis of “moderate” Arab states, willing to countenance U.S. influence in the region despite the general unpopularity of U.S. foreign policy.

During the summertime war between Israel and Lebanese militia Hezbollah, Cairo surprised many by its lack of support for the latter. While not condemning Hezbollah outright, Cairo joined the U.S. in blaming the Shia resistance group for initiating the war by its capture of three Israeli soldiers in July.

Cairo remains concerned about the deteriorating situation in Lebanon, where an empowered, Hezbollah-led opposition continues to lead popular demonstrations against the U.S.-backed government. While not launching any mediation initiatives of its own, Cairo has endorsed arbitration efforts led by Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, who has called on both sides to compromise on a power-sharing arrangement.

Cairo is also urging restraint between leading Palestinian factions Hamas – the Islamist party that swept to power in January parliamentary elections – and Fatah. In an effort to halt crushing international sanctions on the Palestinian government, levied because of Hamas’ historical refusal to recognise Israel, Egypt has continued to urge the Islamist party to moderate its stance vis-à-vis the Jewish state.

Although Egypt is largely helpless to influence the situation in U.S.-occupied Iraq, meanwhile, it has continued to voice concern about the chaos and sectarian violence currently ravaging the war-torn country. In an attempt to bring a degree of relief to Iraq, therefore, Cairo has continued to regularly host various parties to the conflict in hopes of achieving a degree of reconciliation between the warring factions.

Finally, following earlier pledges to make 2007 “the year of constitutional reform”, President Mubarak announced his intention in November to request amendment of several constitutional articles governing executive authority, the role of parliament and the electoral process.

Along with promises of constitutional revision, the pPresident also recommended that a quota of parliamentary seats be reserved for women, that the power of municipal councils be augmented, and that the state of emergency be replaced with less stringent anti-terrorism laws. While he did not specify which articles would be modified, party insiders suggest that as many as 30 constitutional articles could come in for amendment.

According to most opposition figures and political analysts, however, promised reforms will most likely represent little more than window dressing. If anything, say reform-minded observers, the President’s proposed raft of changes will only serve to strengthen the authority of the ruling party.

Some opposition figures have even voiced the not uncommon opinion that the promised reforms were little more than cover for behind-the-scenes political machinations aimed at the eventual ascension of Gamal Mubarak, the president’s 43-year-old son, to the presidency.

But the government appears set to continue its gradualist approach to political reform. While significant changes cannot be ruled out for 2007, such as the replacement of the emergency law with a new anti-terrorism bill, there is little chance they will satisfy an increasingly vocal opposition.

According to political analysts, the government’s overriding concern will be to thwart the political ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood, arguably the country’s most formidable opposition force.