UKRAINE: EU Begins to Look Invitingly

By Zoltán Dujisin Reprint | | Print |

Zoltán Dujisin

BUDAPEST, Feb 11 2007 (IPS) - A constant dispute between the liberal President and the ‘pro-Russian’ Prime Minister over foreign policy has not prevented the European Union (EU) from upgrading its partnership with Ukraine. But nobody dares to mention membership just yet.

On Feb 6, following a Ukraine-EU Troika meeting of foreign ministers in Ukraine capital Kiev, the two sides agreed to start negotiations on a new enhanced agreement, a big step as it improves the country’s economic integration and political dialogue with the EU.

Germany foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and state secretary for European affairs of Portugal’s foreign ministry Manuel Lobo Antunes represented the EU at the Troika meting.

The Ukrainian side predicts the new extended agreement will be signed before the end of 2007 and is hopeful it will represent an additional step towards the dream of membership into the family of European states.

“The agreement is positive, the EU wants to integrate Ukraine in the economic sphere, and that’s good because it shows we can come closer to the EU,” Natalya Shapovalova, foreign policy analyst at the Kiev-based International Centre for Policy Studies told IPS.

The eastern European country of 50 million gained independence following the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991, but for many Ukrainians the idea of joining the EU only became realistic after the 2004 presidential elections resulted in an openly pro-Western government.

Since then a constitutional reform and the 2006 parliamentary elections made pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich the most powerful man in the country, and clashes between him and President Viktor Yushchenko over distribution of powers have become almost everyday practice.

“There has been a huge change in the political situation since 2004,” Shapovalova told IPS. “EU and foreign observers agree there is democracy in Ukraine, but it is obviously still underdeveloped, an ongoing process.”

A new controversial cabinet law, awaiting appraisal by Ukraine’s constitutional court, will further diminish the President’s powers in the area of foreign affairs.

Unhappy with the government’s actions, the somewhat splintered opposition is planning to promote the disbandment of parliament to call early elections and revive Ukraine’s “democratic and European development.”

The latest and most sensitive clash, once again won by Yanukovich, involved former foreign minister Borys Tarasyuk, who parliament had dismissed against the President’s will.

Tarasyuk refused to step down, claiming he was a presidential appointee, but finally resigned last month for the sake of political stability. Acting minister for foreign affairs Volodymyr Ogryzko took his place at the ministerial meeting with the EU Troika.

Shortly before resigning, Tarasyuk said the biggest success of his term was the progress in Ukraine’s relations with the EU.

But the biggest stumbling block between Yushchenko and Yanukovich in terms of foreign policy has been membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Yushchenko favours it but has public opinion and pro-Russian elites against him.

But pro-Russian does not necessarily mean anti-European. In spite of a very conflictive polity, Ukraine’s elites and electorate are almost unanimous regarding the desirability of EU membership, as attested by frequent public statements and opinion poll results.

Unlike with NATO, Ukrainians tend to see the EU as a guarantor of superior living standards, democratic rules and for some, an assertion of its Central European character at the expense of Russian influence.

“It is a major strategic goal,” Shapovalova says. “The problem is to find the willingness to prepare and implement reforms, and the government is too involved in constructing a new political architecture.”

The enhanced agreement replaces an existing cooperation and partnership agreement. Beyond its efforts to fall in line with EU legislation, Ukraine has vowed to take an active part in settling issues of interest to the EU, such as in the energy, transport, and security fields.

“It will be a challenge for the government to prepare its negotiations with the entire bureaucratic machinery still under reform,” Shapovalova notes.

As a first step, Ukraine is eager to enter into a free-trade zone with the EU, and officials in Brussels have conceded that talks could begin before the post-soviet republic’s formal accession into the World Trade Organisation (WTO), but not before Ukrainian legislation is in line with it.

The time for Ukraine to become an actual member is harder to predict. “The next major discussions in Ukraine will focus on how its political system should look like, though reforms will be determined by an EU integration perspective,” Shapovalova said.

“But also debates within the EU will in the meanwhile focus on the constitution and institutional reform,” the analyst said.

The latest enlargement to Bulgaria and Romania Jan. 1 brought the number of EU member states to 27, making the need for institutional reform in the EU ever more pressing.

Experts argue the EU will take a pause, and future enlargements will only be discussed after the organisation reforms and approves a legal document coherent with its size.

“There won’t be any clear signals for membership in the near future,” Shapovalova said, “but in the long term, when the EU is more self-confident and its internal structure clearer, the enlargement debate could be renewed.”