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POLITICS-SUDAN: Little Hope for Success Ahead of Darfur Talks

Andrew Heavens

KHARTOUM, Oct 25 2007 (IPS) - Long-awaited peace talks between Sudan’s government and rebel groups from the country’s war-torn Darfur region are due to begin in the Libyan port city of Sirte Saturday.

But before negotiations have even started, an upsurge in fighting – together with signs of increasing splits on both sides of the negotiating table and certain insurgents boycotting the talks altogether – have dealt a body blow to faint hopes of success.

Diplomats and international negotiators getting ready to fly to Libya Thursday were openly wondering how long the talks could keep going, and which parties to the conflict they would actually find waiting for them when they got to the venue.

The talks, brokered by the United Nations and the African Union (AU), are aimed at bringing an end to the fighting, looting and raping that has already lasted for more than four years in the western Sudanese region, leaving at least 200,000 dead and driving more than 2.5 million people from their homes.

The United States has accused Sudan’s government of committing genocide through the conflict, while Khartoum claims the international media is exaggerating the extent of the problems in Darfur.

Recent weeks have seen an increasing number of reported clashes between government troops, their allied militias and rebel factions across the region, which is as large as France.

In addition, bands of armed rebels were blamed for killing 10 AU peacekeepers in an attack on their base, while government-backed militias were held responsible for several attacks on two refugee camps.

Over the past few days, one of the largest rebel groups, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), has claimed responsibility for an attack on an oil field in the neighbouring region of Kordofan, boasting of killing 20 government soldiers and holding at least two foreign oil workers hostage.

Optimists see the attacks as inevitable, last-minute manoeuvering by parties trying to build up their positions before negotiations.

Other observers have been less upbeat. “Whatever propitious conditions existed are evaporating,” said Alex de Waal of the New York-based Social Science Research Council.

“Many of the (rebel) movements’ leaders are demanding more time to work out their common position, and others are arguing that there is little point in talking to a government that is in crisis without the SPLM. This is not an auspicious moment to begin peace talks, yet the AU and U.N. are pressing ahead.”

The reference to the SPLM, the southern Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, relates to a crisis that is causing disarray in the government camp. Sudanese authorities signed a historic peace deal with the SPLM in 2005, ending Africa’s longest civil war. As part of the deal, the SPLM joined a coalition government and had its leader appointed first vice-president of Sudan.

Earlier this month, however, the SPLM pulled its ministers out of the coalition government, claiming that former foes were stalling on a number of key protocols in the peace agreement – notably those relating to withdrawal of troops and the management of important oil field sites.

With the SPLM absent, many rebels have been left asking whether they will have a proper government left to negotiate with. “For all practical purposes, that government does not exist,” read a statement from the Unity wing of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA-Unity), put out last week.

At least seven established rebel groups have already announced that they are not going to Libya, claiming that they are still unprepared and need at least another month to finalise their negotiating positions.

Abdel Wahed Mohamed Ahmed al-Nur, leader of the Sudan Liberation Army, has given a string of conditions for taking part in negotiations – such as fighting being brought to a halt. At the time of writing, both JEM and SLA-Unity were still making up their minds about whether to go to Sirte.

Certain observers say non-attendance by rebels would play into the hands of the government, allowing it to claim the high ground of having tried to make talks work.

Just a few weeks ago, the coming Libyan negotiations were described as a “moment of truth” by their joint organisers, the U.N.’s special envoy to Darfur, Jan Eliasson, and his AU counterpart, Salim Ahmed Salim.

Now, many in the international community are already starting to wonder what will happen if – or when – the talks fall apart. “The situation couldn’t get much worse,” said a diplomat who asked not to be named.