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JAPAN/CHINA: Relations Thaw Despite Gas Reserves Issue

Catherine Makino

TOKYO, Jan 28 2008 (IPS) - Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda’s efforts at forging closer relations between Japan and China, rectifying the abrasive course set by his predecessors in office, is apparently bearing fruit.

Fukuda is highly respected in China and is seen to be more moderate than his two immediate predecessors, says Gregory Clark, vice-president of Akita International University in Akita prefecture. "He has gained the trust of the Chinese and moved the entire relationship to a new level," Clark told IPS in an interview.

Fukuda took the first step in improving Japan's historically frosty ties with its neighbour by paying a four-day visit to China last month, a trip that both countries hailed as a "success" and a "major breakthrough" in bilateral relations.

China greeted Fukuda enthusiastically and he ended his trip with a symbolic visit to the birthplace of Confucius, the ancient Chinese philosopher whom both countries honour.

"My visit to China was very meaningful, and our two countries should become creative partners to build a better Asia and a better world," Fukuda said of his visit.

Fukuda stressed growing people-to-people contacts. "The number of people commuting between Japan and China everyday has reached 13,000 and events such as the Beijing Olympics in 2008 will provide more important opportunities to expand bilateral communications in all fields,’’ he said.

The trip also produced agreements and plans to cooperate in such areas as environmental protection, energy conservation and expanding professional and youth exchanges.

In his New Year greetings, Fukuda praised the relationship between the two countries and stressed the need to work together to maintain peace and prosperity in Asia and the world.

The complicated relationship between the two powers, which normalised their diplomatic relations in 1972, hit an absolute low during the tenure of Japan's Junichiro Koizumi from 2001 to 2006 and his successor Shinzo Abe, who abruptly resigned in September 2007, after only a year in office.

A major reason for the downturn was Koizumi's insistence on making regular visits to Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, which honours 14 convicted war criminals among Japan's 2.5 million war dead. China saw the shrine and Koizumi's visits as a glorification of Japan's militaristic past. Fukuda has pointedly said that he will not visit Yasukuni.

"Beijing and Tokyo recognise that the bilateral relationship is far too important to be held hostage to history," says Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University, Japan Campus, and author of ‘Japan's Quiet Transformation’. ‘’Fukuda's visit added momentum to efforts aimed at repairing the serious damage inflicted on the bilateral relationship by Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine and I think they have come a long way in rebuilding trust,’’ Kingston told IPS.

Despite the friction over history, the relationship between the two giants actually began improving many years ago due to growing economic links. "If you look at what is done as opposed to what is said, it is obvious that Sino-Japanese relations have been on a steadily improving course since the early 1970s, if not before," says Eamonn Fingleton, author of several books on Japan. "The most easily explicated aspect of this trend is trade: The two nations do enormous trade together and China buys more than twice as much from Japan as from the United States."

China is a huge customer for Japan's high-tech products and both countries need to be able to continue their lucrative trade. "Even at times when the story in the Western press has been that relations are terrible, Japan has consistently supported China in decisive ways – for example it was Japan more than any other nation that got China into the World Trade Organisation (WTO)," Fingleton says.

However, there remain tense issues between the two nations. Japan and China are two of the world's largest energy importers, and their long-running feud over natural gas rights in the disputed East China Sea has remained unresolved ever since discussions began in 2004. During Fukuda's visit the issue was not resolved, but the two sides agreed to work on solving it.

"I think there is political will to solve it, but we are talking about energy and a lot of money and figuring out a compromise will be difficult, but I am reasonably optimistic they can cut a deal," Kingston says. "I'm also aware a lot can prevent them from finding agreement. It's up to the Chinese to make a political decision – they will have to give up more than they want to and Japan will have to accept less than it wants."

China’s ambassador to Japan Cui Tiankai has said that the natural gas rights issue will "likely be settled well before Chinese President Hu Jintao's upcoming visit to Japan,’’ during the cherry blossom season in spring. Dates are yet to be set for the second visit by a Chinese head of state to Tokyo and the first in a decade.

"Maybe in a short period of time the two governments could reach an agreement on a formula for joint development," Cui said at a news conference in Tokyo, earlier this month. "I know this is a difficult issue, a sensitive issue, but fortunately the two sides have both displayed the real earnestness and the political will to resolve this issue as soon as possible."

Japan has expressed concerns that China has already begun tapping the gas reserves after conducting test-drilling as far back as 2003.

But Cui said "what we are working on now is not talking about territories " but "some problems regarding chances of developing the resources".

Cui was also optimistic about Japan's future relations with China. "I think by working together the two countries will be able to solve whatever problem we have and to bridge whatever differences we might have," he said.

Kingston agrees."There is a recognition that this relationship is mutually beneficial and they can work out existing problems through dialogue. This is good news.’'