VENEZUELA: Both Sides Weaker One Year After Coup

By Humberto Márquez Reprint | | Print |

Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Apr 11 2003 (IPS) - A year after the short-lived coup d’etat that toppled Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez for just two days, the two blocs still involved in a stand-off are both weaker, and the country’s social problems have worsened, while no one has been brought to justice for the dozens of deaths that occurred in the April 2002 political upheaval.

”The situation in Venezuela has apparently been stabilised, after a long year of confrontations between the military interest group headed by Chávez, in the government, and the ultra- conservative right, which tried to topple him,” retired general Alberto Muller, a political scientist, told IPS.

”We are in the presence of two weakened blocs, the government and the opposition, which have lost their bearings, while the population awaits alternative solutions to their problems of unemployment, the rising cost of living, and lack of personal safety,” said José Vicente Carrasquero, a professor of graduate studies in political science at the Simón Bolívar University in Caracas.

On the afternoon of Apr. 11, 2002, the third day of a general strike aimed at forcing Chávez to resign, a march by hundreds of thousands of anti-government protesters changed its scheduled route and headed towards the government palace, which was defended by pro-Chávez activists.

Nineteen people were killed and 71 injured in shooting incidents that have never been clarified.

Top armed forces commanders led by then-army chief Efraín Vásquez deposed Chávez and took him into custody in the early hours of Apr. 12, replacing him with Pedro Carmona, then-president of the Fedecámaras business association, as de facto head of state with broad powers.

Protests and looting broke out, and on Apr. 13 military officers and troops loyal to the constitution and to Chávez, and civilian supporters of the president, took to the streets and restored him to the presidency.

Since then, the government and opposition have mutually blamed each other for the rupture of the ruling order, the deaths of at least 70 people between Apr. 11 and 13, and the deterioration of Venezuela’s institutions, economy and living conditions.

The broad opposition movement, made up of the Democratic Coordinator, an umbrella organisation of political parties and civil society groups, and the leading business associations and labour unions, is pressing for early elections, to remove Chávez from power before his term ends in 2006.

On Dec. 2, the Democratic Coordinator called a work stoppage to demand a referendum for voters to decide whether or not Chávez should step down or call early elections.

In the meantime, the opposition and the government engaged in ongoing talks brokered by the head of the Organisation of American States (OAS), César Gaviria.

The referendum was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.

The general strike dragged on for 63 days without achieving its main objective, while wreaking havoc on the oil industry – the engine of the economy – and hundreds of companies, and leaving tens of thousands of Venezuelans out of work.

In the state oil monopoly, PDVSA, 16,000 employees, of a total payroll of 39,000, were laid off.

The total losses caused by the strike in this South American oil-producing nation of 23 million are estimated at 7.5 billion dollars – around seven percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

During the strike, the government militarised oil installations that had been brought to a halt by the shutdown, to keep them operating. Once the work stoppage ended, the Chávez administration worked hard to get oil output back to normal levels, and adopted currency and price controls.

The Democratic Coordinator was forced to accept the government’s argument that the only legal electoral alternative to attempt to remove the president was a referendum on his mandate halfway through his term, as established by the constitution, which may be held before year-end.

A year after the coup, the enormous anti-and pro-government rallies that had become virtually a daily feature of life in the capital have become less and less frequent, with more anti-Chávez protests than demonstrations in his support. The violence that had marked a number of the street protests has also cooled off.

The anniversary of the coup was commemorated Friday by several marches by opposition groups, as well as rallies in favour of the government.

In addition, the Chávez administration organised a forum with international guests, including the leader of Bolivia’s coca- farmers, lawmaker Evo Morales, French farm activist José Bové, and the director of the French newspaper Le Monde Diplomatique, Ignacio Ramonet.

The clash between the blocs disputing power in Venezuela ”has cyclical moments. We are now in a cooling-off phase, which the government is taking advantage of to carry out a psychological battle aimed at wearing out the opposition forces,” said Carrasquero.

However, ”the more time that goes by, the worse things will get for Chávez, because Venezuelans, as a result of their political culture, judge leaders by their results, which are disastrous in economic and social terms,” said the analyst.

”That is why there will be no escape for the president, if a referendum is held on whether or not to revoke his mandate,” he added.

According to opinion polls, 60 percent or more of the population is opposed to Chávez, while 35 to 40 percent supports him. The president’s popularity grew several percentage points in the wake of the strike.

Venezuela’s social woes were aggravated by an 8.9 percent contraction in GDP in 2002. Unemployment stands at 20 percent, half of all workers are active in the informal economy, 56 percent of households are below the poverty line, and annualised inflation is above 30 percent.

Forecasts for this year indicate that things will only get worse.

Rising crime is another serious problem. The weekend toll of violent deaths – murder rates peak on Friday and Saturday nights in Caracas – has gone beyond 100 homicides in the space of 48 hours several times this year, and the murder rate is 33 per 100,000 people, one of the highest in the world.

Muller said the climate of relative political stability ”is due to the fact that a large part of the opposition has understood that the only way to solve the current crisis is through democratic practices, without actions that would be a prelude to further violent confrontations.”

The retired general also said ”that is what the biggest faction of the armed forces, which respects the country’s institutions, wants: the creation of an internal climate of peace, which would enable the settlement of differences in a civilised and democratic manner.”

With respect to the international scene, ”there is evidence that the United States contributed to the opposition demonstrations a year ago,” said Muller.

”Now, emboldened by what is happening in Iraq, (Washington) might be tempted to resolve these other problems in other latitudes, like the irritating presence of the power group of military origin that governs with Chávez,” a populist retired paratrooper officer.

”Nevertheless, it is unlikely that Washington will get immediately involved in an operation of any magnitude in Venezuela, since it is worried about more urgent questions that will come after Iraq, like Syria, Iran and North Korea,” he added.

Spain and the United States were accused of supporting Carmona when their ambassadors in Caracas met with him shortly after he took power. The two nations, along with Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Portugal, currently form part of the ”group of friends” that are backing Gaviria’s mediation of the ongoing negotiations between the government and opposition in Venezuela.