YUGOSLAVIA: Croatian U.N. Forces Decision Greeted with Relief

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Mar 14 1995 (IPS) - Croatia’s decision to allow a slimmed- down United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) to remain in the country has been met with relief by the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, the Krajina Serbs and anti-war groups in the region.

The worry that the Mar. 31 deadline given to UNPROFOR to leave Croatia would see an immediate resumption of fighting between Croatians and Krajina Serbs has been lifted.

This follows a joint announcement on retaining U.N. peacekeepers made by the Croatian president Franjo Tudjman and United Vice- President Al Gore on Sunday in Copenhagen.

At the same time it is expected that the original 12,000-strong force will be slimmed down to just 5,000 but that is thought to be enough to keep the peace along the Croatian border with Bosnia and Serbia.

Recent Croatian-Krajina economic talks and normalisation of Serb- Croat relations in general have been backed by Milosevic. The once belligerent Serbian leader Milosevic has in recent times changed his politics claiming that there is no alternative to peace.

He has been quietly directing the Krajina Serbs into broader talks with Croatia and cut all ties with the warring Bosnian Serbs last August. In fact the current Krajina Serb leadership is believed to be under strong Milosevic influence.

The Krajina team that held talks in Belgrade on Monday with Milosevic also cautiously welcomed Tudjman’s decision. This stressed the danger of another war between Croatia and the Serbs had been avoided. To most of them, it remained to be seen what the changed mandate of UNPROFOR would mean in practice.

Both the Krajina Serb ‘prime minister’ Borislav Mikelic and its ‘foreign minister’ Milan Babic welcomed Tudjman’s change of mind over the UNPROFOR withdrawal.

According to Mikelic: “Tudjman’s decision was wise and in a way made under the pressure from the international community. No one wants war in this area any more — neither the world nor the people here.”

Babic told the independent Yugoslav Fonet News Agency that the renewed mandate of the United Nations troops “needs further clarification” as a substantial change would “raise certain worries among people of Krajina”.

He hoped the mandate of the United Nations troops would remain roughly the same fearing that the deployment of United Nations forces along the Croatian border with Serbia could mean integration of Krajina areas into Croatia’s territory.

In Belgrade, Vuk Draskovic, leader of the opposition Serbian Renewal Party (SPO), told Fonet News Agency that Tudjman’s decision is good news as the possibilities of a new war have faded.

“Tudjman’s game was skillful and he got certain diplomatic points across. I hope that peace has come closer to us, despite the fact that so many ‘angels of death’ still exist in Croatia, as well as in Serbia,” he added.

Vojislav Seselj, the ultra-nationalist leader of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and Vojislav Kostunica of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) were more sceptical.

“We still don’t know if the United Nations or even NATO troops will be stationed permanently in Krajina,” Seselj told the Fonet News Agency.

“At the moment it appears possible that international troops could simply take the place of regular customs officers, police or border control at the borders with Serbia. That will only make things worse,” he said.

Kostunica disputed the possible change of the UNPROFOR mandate, saying that “Tudjman is only stalling for time” while arming his troops in order to take over Krajina.

“We hear the sound of arms again, we’re closer to war than to peace,” he added.

Moderate Nationalist Democratic Party (DS) leader Zoran Djindjic accused Tudjman of “creating a crisis” with the threat of expelling United Nations troops by the end of March.

He told Fonet that “the one who has created the crisis cannot be praised for solving it now”.

According to Djindjic, it remains to be seen if the Krajina Serbs will remain an equal partner in the talks, which is crucial to him. “Further negotiations could be in danger if the international community does not recognise this fact.”

The details of tasks of the scaled-down forces were not revealed immediately. Since mid-January Tudjman has threatened to expel some 12,000-strong United Nations peacekeeping forces when their current mandate expires on Mar. 31.

He has in the past accused them of creating a “status quo” over the third of Croatia’s territory under the control of the Krajina Serbs.

Under the United Nations-mediated Cyrus Vance plan, UNPROFOR troops were deployed in four sectors of Croatia (the so-called United Nations protected areas — UNPA zones) in early 1992.

This followed six months of war between the Croatian government forces and the Krajina Serbs, backed by their supporters from Belgrade and the former Yugoslav Federal Army.