ASIA: Softly, China Adopts an Aggressive Stance

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Yojana Sharma

HONG KONG, Mar 14 1995 (IPS) - China is following a double-edged strategy in Asia — resolving a number of outstanding land disputes with neighbouring countries while asserting itself in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, military analysts say.

Dubbed “creeping assertiveness” by China watchers, Beijing’s tactic involves maintaining friendly ties with its neighbours while slowly, often clandestinely, expanding its military presence in strategic waters in a way that threatens the very same neighbours.

“The Chinese have territorial ambitions and they are clandestinely creeping along and taking territory. And while they are encroaching they are negotiating with their neighbours,” says Mike Lombardo, a Hong Kong-based military analyst.

The idea, say China experts, is to develop good relations with their neighbours by resolving decades-old minor border disputes, making it difficult for Asian countries to lodge a strong protest on China’s developing regional military ambitions for fear of jeopardising hard-won bilateral deals.

“The Chinese have an agenda and on top of the agenda is dominance of the South China Sea,” says Lombardo.

China’s strategy of trying to resolve land border disputes is “to ensure it does not have so many fronts open at once”, he adds. “It makes sense to pacify the eastern border (with Vietnam) so it can encroach in the South China Sea” where the two have clashed over their overlapping claims to the Spratlys.

At the same time, China is developing its military ties with Burma, Laos and Cambodia in order to use their ports as naval stations in case of a future conflict in the South China Sea and to secure potential allies within ASEAN should Laos and Cambodia join the Association of South-east Asian Nations, says Lombardo.

ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines, as well as Vietnam and Taiwan all lay claim to all or part of the island chain believed to have huge oil deposits. But ASEAN and Japan consider the South China Sea an economically vital sea route which should not be dominated by any one nation.

In particular, note analysts, China has been keen to sort out border disputes with Russia and India.

Last week Foreign Minister Qian Qichen said China’s borders were more secure than at any time since the 1949 communist revolution, despite disorder in neighbouring Russia. “The situation in our frontier regions is good. It’s the best that we have known since the revolution,” Qian said.

Yet at the same time Moscow has been complaining of increased “poaching” by Chinese fishing vessels in disputed waters off the Kuril Islands. And the reconfirmation of a 1991 border treaty under which Russia surrendered 15 km of territory to China has angered military hardliners in Moscow.

Hawks in Moscow pointed to an incident a year ago when a Chinese warship entered the Armur river which flows through the border city of Khabarovsk.

“I don’t understand the (Russian) foreign ministry, which is afraid of aggravating relations with China,” said Yevgeni Nzdratyenko, chief administrator of the Primorye region where last month Russian border guards opened fire at two Chinese nationals who had crossed the Sino-Russian border. He was referring to the deal over the land border.

Meanwhile India and China are negotiating a reduction in the number of troops along their long common border, where analysts say China does not have territorial ambitions other than to have a good geographical barrier.

At the same time Beijing has allegedly installed a radar station on Burma’s Cocos Islands which could follow the movements of the Indian navy in the Indian Ocean and watch India’s missile programme.

China is also said to be offering to develop former naval facilities at Kyaukpu on Ramree Island not far from the Bangladeshi border, causing much concern in New Delhi.

Three Chinese trawlers, which India claims are spying vessels, were held in Indian waters late last year, adding fuel to suspicions over China’s intentions in the Indian Ocean and the Malacca Straits.

Taiwanese military analysts have long been wise to such tactics. Military chief Liu Ho Cxhien recently said China had moved missile bases to a province near Taiwan early this year at a time when Chinese President Jiang Zemin was making conciliatory moves towards Taipei.

Liu described this as China’s “typical double-handed strategy of peace and war at the same time”, and noted that China’s real intention was to become an Asia-Pacific superpower.

Military analysts say China’s tactic is to try to buy time while building up its naval strength to a level where it can assert itself regionally.

“Most military analysts say China won’t be able to mount a naval threat for 20 years or so. But its intentions are another thing. The Chinese have a very aggressive agenda,” says Lombardo.

Analysts say extra state funds for the Chinese army agreed in the last two years are aimed at improving the capability of the navy and air force to enable China to extend its reach beyond its immediate borders.

Beijing recently completed negotiations to buy six Russian attack submarines to boost its presence in the South China Sea. But military experts say China needs to acquire aircraft carriers to really make a stand in the strategic area.

Negotiations to buy an aircraft carrier from the Ukraine last year stalled because China could not afford it. But analysts say an aircraft carrier is still on China’s shopping list.

The need to buy time has even led China to welcome a continued U.S. military presence in East Asia after Washington last month reversed a decision to cut back on troops in the Asia-Pacific.

“The Chinese want the Americans here because the United States represents stability and this would allow China the time to build up its forces for its territorial ambitions,” notes Lombardo.

But once China has built up its strength, the region could become a flashpoint.

“With such an aggressive (Chinese) agenda, it is inevitable that there would be a confrontation between the U.S. and China in two to three decades,” says Lombardo, to say nothing of the South- east Asian countries with a stake in the South China Sea.