U.S.-ELECTIONS: Historic Victory in Hand, Clinton Faces Vexing Problems

By Jim Lobe Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Nov 6 1996 (IPS) - His historic electoral victory in hand, U.S. President Bill Clinton now faces a daunting series of challenges both at home and abroad.

As in 1992, when he defeated incumbent Republican president George Bush, Clinton will undoubtedly find that campaigning, of which he proved himself a master this year, is a good deal more fun than governing.

Clinton must address a range of politically charged issues at home — from the impending bankruptcy of the popular Medicare programme to how to bring the annual federal budget deficit from over 100 billion dollars down to zero by the year 2002.

On foreign affairs, the president faces difficult situations in regional hot spots — from the Middle East to the Koreas — which he had effectively put on hold during the six-month electoral campaign. By failing to address them during the campaign, Clinton may find his options more limited now.

He will also be forced to handle a number of politically ticklish decisions on trade which could create havoc within his own Democratic Party. The expansion of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) southwards and U.S. trade policy towards China loom large.

Clinton’s victory over former Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole is historic. He is the first Democrat in more than 50 years to win two consecutive four-year terms and only the third Democrat this century to accomplish such a feat.

The other two, Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Delano Roosevel, who won four terms, were aided in their re-election efforts by national crises — two world wars and the Great Depression — which helped rally the country behind its leadership.

While Clinton enjoyed no such advantage, he had several things going for him: an economy with low unemployment and low inflation; an especially weak Republican challenger unsuited for the television age; and a convenient bogey man in the form of the unpopular right-wing Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich.

His own finely honed campaign skills and his boundless political flexibility — used to co-opt traditional Republican themes such as crime, family, and deficit reduction — also served him well. That flexibility leaves most analysts wondering just how he will confront issues that now press down upon him.

On the domestic side, those include how to deal with fiscally endangered middle-class programmes like Medicare and Social Security which he, like other Democrats, have sworn to strengthen. Medicare’s trust fund account will go into bankruptcy by 2001 unless benefits are cut or taxes raised. Neither option is a popular option at present.

Similarly, pressures resulting from Clinton’s budget reduction agreement with the Republicans will make it far more difficult to allocate federal funds between guns and butter and to find enough public money to follow through on promised programmes for worker training and education which Clinton says are essential for the U.S. workforce to compete successfully in the global marketplace.

As in his first term, Clinton will face competing pressures on other politically charged issues, such as welfare, the environment, and health insurance.

Abroad, Clinton must address a number of problems, some of which could boil over into crisis at any time. The foremost of these is the continuing impasse in the peace process between the right-wing Likud government in Israel and the Palestinians led by Chairman Yasser Arafat.

Administration analysts say if Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu does not act soon to fulfill commitments made by his Labour predecessor — notably to withdraw troops from Hebron and provide a land corridor linking the West Bank and Gaza — the violence which broke out in September after the Israelis opened a tunnel near Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem is certain to erupt again. That could doom the three-year-old peace process and further raise tensions throughout the Middle East.

Anxious not to be seen as pressuring Netanyahu during the presidential campaign, Clinton remained strictly neutral during the September crisis. Now that the election is finished, foreign policy advisers are expected to press the president to him to take a tougher line with Israel to keep the process on track.

Clinton faces increasingly urgent problems in the Gulf. Differences with Washington’s European allies over the U.S. “dual- containment” policy against Iraq and Iran, worries about Saudi stability, and growing pressure from U.S. oil companies which want access via Iran to the oil-rich Caspian region could force a major review of U.S. policy towards Teheran.

Clinton must also address tensions with ally South Korea over a common policy towards North Korea, widely seen as the most dangerous and unpredictable of so-called “rogue states.”

Clinton also has to define policy towards China, whose sheer size and defiance of Washington on human rights, trade, and weapons proliferation issues damaged U.S. credibility in the region during Clinton’s first term.

On trade and financial issues, U.S. officials are concerned about prospects for another crisis in Mexico resulting from an overvalued peso and worried investors. The 1995 multi-billion- dollar bailout proved unpopular with the rank-and-file of both major parties. Given labour’s efforts to speak with a stronger voice, another rescue mission south of the border could be much more difficult to pull off.

Similarly, pressure from the unions and the labour wing of the Democratic Party is certain to make it more difficult for Clinton to pursue new measures to free trade — specifically to include Chile in NAFTA and to gain agreement on China’s admission to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Clinton will also be occupied with key personnel changes. Secretary of State Warren Christopher, Defence Secretary William Perry, and several other Cabinet secretaries are expected to announce their retirements in the coming weeks.