VIETNAM: Economic Doors Open, Political Lid Shut

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis Serguei Blagov

HANOI, Jul 2 1996 (IPS) - Vietnam is no longer at war. But going by the rhetoric at the landmark Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam this week, one would think it still is.

The four-day Congress that ended Monday pledged to defend Vietnam against outside “hostile forces”, and threats to the country’s economic and political independence.

Newly-elected politburo member Le Minh Huong who is also the Deputy Minister of the Interior warned the party congress over the weekend: “Hostile forces are trying to carry out peaceful evolution, which is an aggravation of the class struggle.”

Most Vietnam pundits agree that these fears are exaggerated, perhaps purposely by a party which uses the ‘besieged fortress’ analogy to justify its grip on power. Where else in the world would ‘peaceful evolution’ be a bad word?

There is no organised underground democratic movement, or even widespread discontent among the people. Most of Vietnam’s 60 million people are eager to forget the past decades of war and deprivation to get on with enjoying the fruits of economic liberalisation and growth.

The Communist Party knows that it needs to keep up its liberalisation policy to create jobs and keep this popular support, and through that its hold on power.

But the reason for the siege mentality is that economic liberalisation is also opening up the country to new ideas and, possibly, subversive new influences.

Especially suspect are ‘modern’ ideas of democracy and political plurality that are seen to be infiltrating the country through Vietnamese expatriates coming home, foreign media and the presence of multinationals. So the formula is to keep the economic doors open while keeping the political lid firmly shut.

And it is no secret from where Vietnam is borrowing this model. Hint: the presence of Chinese premier Li Peng at the opening of the Party Congress last week. An event that by itself was a landmark geopolitical milestone: no Chinese leader has attended Vietnamese party congresses since the 1960’s.

These Congresses are held every five years and for those watching the Congress composition for indications of shifts in the power balance, it was very clear which group was asserting itself: the military.

The Congress decided to maintain its top triumvirate, which was a radical departure from previous practice of rotation among party elders. Thus, keeping general secretary Do Muoi, president Vo Van Kiet and prime minister Le Duc Anh was an effort to avoid sudden change, maintain political stability and keep the geographical balance in the leadership.

The Congress also decided to create a powerful Standing Committee within the politburo which will be tasked with streamlining government decisions on trade, investment, party matters and the military.

The Standing Committee replaces the Communist Party of Vietnam Secretariat, and will consist of Do Muoi, Le Duc Anh, Vo Van Kiet, Le Kha Phieu and Nguyen Tan Dung.

The Congress elected five army and police generals into the politburo. Retired interior minister Bui Thien Ngo was replaced by two of his deputies, reflecting the increasing weight of his powerful ministry, comprising the police and security services.

Moreover, the generals, including former defence minister Le Duc Anh, now hold a majority in the standing committee of the politburo.

The Congress over the weekend adopted its ‘Political Report’, the road map to take Vietnam into the 21st Century. In it, the consolidation of ‘national defence and maintaining security’ are among the priorities. It adds: “The Party leadership over the army and the security forces must be further enhanced.”

Till ten years ago, Vietnam was one of the countries in the world with the largest standing armies: there were 1.5 million soldiers under arms. Today, the number has fallen to 900,000, but this is still a mighty force.

The army has been more cautious about reforms, and is particularly its effect on the infusion of ideas of political freedom. President Le Duc Anh, the hero of the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia in 1979, warned last month that foreign investments could threaten the country’s economic and political independence.

But it is also true that the military has benefited enormously from liberalisation. Companies set up by the army now have more than 50 joint venture agreements with foreign firms, with a combined capital of 400 million dollars, most of it in the hotel business.

On the eve of the Congress last week, party leader Do Muoi called on the army to destroy attempts “by hostile forces to de- politicise the army”. This could be a warning to reformers within the party who would like to see the military defanged.

A lot of the military’s ire has been directed at the international media for being the messenger bearing news of a rivalry between ‘reformers’ and ‘hardliners’ in the party hierarchy.

The powerful army paper, Quan Doi Nhan Dan, last week attacked the foreign media of writing “groundless commentaries” about the controversy. Foreign correspondets were explicitly blamed for “intentionally distorting the realities of the renovation process”.

Since last month, Vietnamese embassies have stopped issuing journalists visas, not even extending those granted to reporters already stationed here. Business and tourist visas were also hit by long delays.

To be sure, the Political Report presented to the party congress does not advocate a return to the old days. It says Vietnam will “continue its foreign policy of openness, and diversification of relations in the next five years”.

It endorsed continued reforms, but called for maintaining political stability and strenghtning the leading role of the the Communist Party, and in a cautious tone added the need to “handle correctly the relationship between renewal of the political system and economic renewal”.