DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-POLITICS: Balaguer Still Pulls The Strings

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Scott West

SANTO DOMINGO, May 10 1996 (IPS) - Most of the three million Dominicans who will elect a new president next Thursday will make an unusual choice.

For the first time in three decades the list of candidates will not include Joaquin Balaguer, the blind octogenarian who has dominated the country’s politics.

Balaguer’s decision to retire follows a similar move four years ago by his perennial arch rival, Juan Bosch, who stood down because of poor health.

Dominicans may also find it unusual that they are electing a president next week. The last election was two years ago, and presidents serve a four-year term.

Balaguer’s retirement, and the extraordinary election after two years, is part of an agreement by the government, under pressure from the local opposition, the United States and the European Union, to clean up Dominican politics.

Balaguer won the 1994 election by less than one percent of the votes, amid allegations from the opposition parties, supported by foreign observers, that the exercise was poorly administered and was tainted by extensive fraud.

Since then the electoral council has been restructured and given autonomy from party politics interference.

The council’s officials say they expect Thursday’s vote to be less controversial than the last, although opposition politicians maintain that there is still a possibility of irregularities.

Public opinion polls suggest that the winner will be Jose Fancisco Pena Gomez, the candidate of the social democratic Revolutionary party.

He is being closely challenged by Leonel Fernandez who succeeded Juan Bosch as leader of the Liberation party.

Joining the list of front runners, according to the polls, is Jacinto Peynado, the country’s foreign minister and Balaguer’s successor in the Reformist party.

Voters who want to be guided by the economic and social policies of the candidates will have few choices.

The Liberation party, created by Bosch as a Marxist organisation, has switched its platform, and is now as conservative as the Reformists.

Pena Gomez’ Revolutionary party had earlier also moved to the right, and all parties are advocating a market economy, less government involvement, and continuing deregulation including the sale of several major state economic enterprises.

Although Balaguer will not be a candidate, he has been exercising significant influence on the election.

The president, who will retain office until his successor is installed in August, has been ambivalent about his support for Peynado, his party’s candidate.

Senior officials of the Reformist party have indicated that they do not back Peynado, and are instead willing to throw their weight behind the Liberation party’s Leonel Fernandez.

This will harm the chances of Pena Gomez. The Revolutionary party has frequently accused Pena Gomez’ opponents, particularly in the Reformist party, of making racial attacks against their candidate, who is black.

In a society in which black Dominicans are an underclass and in which there was little public reaction to Balaguer’s argument in a book that whites are superior, such attacks have not been surprising.

The presidential candidate has also been described publicly as having “Haitian features”, and accused of planning to unite the Dominican Republic with Haiti. Both countries share the island of Hispaniola.

A close race is expected between Pena Gomez and Fernandez, forcing a run-off vote in six weeks. Fernandez is expected to gain from this, as Reformist functionaries say Balaguer will instruct his party to support Fernandez.

Dominicans will also vote amid increasing uncertainty over the state of the economy of the country of seven million people.

Although the economy expanded by 4.8 percent last year, it has been set back this year by a chronic shortage of electricity.

The state-owned power company is bankrupt and cannot produce to meet demand. The country has suffered blackouts lasting up to 12 hours. This has adversely affected industry and commerce, schools and hospitals.

Private companies which have been supplying electricity have cut off power because they are owed millions of dollars.

Sugar, once the pillar of the economy, contracted because of problems which overtook the heavily-indebted state-owned producer. In 1981 sugar exports amounted to 532 million dollars but by 1993 this had declined to 109.7 million dollars.

Tourism continues to be a major foreign exchange earner, but government officials say the performance of the sector will be affected this year by the election. Foreign exchange earnings from tourism moved from 173 million dollars in 1980 to 1,150 million in 1993.

Business leaders believe that when Balaguer’s successor is installed in August, there will be few changes in the substance of government policy, but a significant change in the style of leadership.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-POLITICS: Balaguer Still Pulls The Strings

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Analysis - Scott West

SANTO DOMINGO, May 10 1996 (IPS) - Most of the three million Dominicans who will elect a new president next Thursday will make an unusual choice.
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