POLITICS-IRAQ: Britain Signals New Crack in Sanctions

By Farhan Haq Reprint | | Print |

UNITED NATIONS, Jun 17 1999 (IPS) - The British government has raised Iraqi hopes of ending UN sanctions by suggesting that the nine- year-old embargo could be suspended if Baghdad complies with a timetable for disarmament tasks.

Britain has circulated a draft resolution to the four other permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, China, France and Russia – that would set a timetable for the eventual lifting of the sanctions, first imposed in 1990.

According to the British draft text, Iraq could win a 120-day suspension of sanctions if it answers several major questions about its remaining weapons – particularly about its possible chemical or biological weapons capability.

Iraqi disarmament would be reviewed every 120 days by the Council, which could then decide whether to extend the suspension or not.

The British draft – which is expected to be presented to the full 15-nation Council by the end of the week – represents a significant shift in the level of support for sanctions in general.

Until now, Britain and the United States have been the two leading nations resisting any effort to ease or lift the embargo against Iraq.

They argue that Baghdad has not complied with a wide range of disarmament and other UN demands. France, China and Russia all want the sanctions to be gradually lifted. US officials, however, have not rejected the British proposal and one even conceded the draft text was “appropriate” for further discussion by the Council.

The British move could be a response to the increasing pressure on the United Nations to change its policy on Iraq following six months in which UN weapons inspectors have been rebuffed, according to diplomatic sources.

In recent months, the Council has been unable to come to agreement on any sanctions policy, or on whether Iraq has complied with UN demands that it destroy any chemical, biological, nuclear and long-range missile weaponry.

Compromises proposed by US allies like Canada and the Netherlands, which tied any easing of sanctions to further disarmament progress, won little support from either the US- British pro-sanctions bloc or embargo opponents like Russia.

Similarly, with the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) weapons monitors unable to return to Iraq since a series of US and British air attacks began in mid-December, the Council has been unable to agree on any new weapons inspections.

The British text refers, as other compromises have done, to the need to set up a proposed new body, the UN Commission on Inspection and Monitoring (UNCIM), that would be similar to UNSCOM.

Some experts doubt that the British proposal represents any major shift from the status quo on Iraq.

Phyllis Bennis, a fellow at the Washington-based Institute for Policy Studies, noted that the British proposal, as currently drafted, would allow Baghdad unlimited exports, but would still place limits on what Iraq could import.

That arrangement may not work out to be different from the current “oil-for-food” policy, in which Baghdad has been granted an exemption to sell nearly 5.3 billion dollars worth of its oil every six months to buy humanitarian goods. The sales, imports and aid distribution are strictly monitored by the United Nations.

Bennis argued that, according to UN and other officials, Iraq already is exporting as much oil as it is capable of doing under the oil-for-food exemption. “It’s not going to make that much difference,” she said of the British plan.

Still, the proposal is the first sign since relations with Iraq soured during the 1990-91 invasion of Kuwait and subsequent Persian Gulf War that Britain and the United States are even willing to consider a timetable toward ending sanctions.

That shift comes at a time when few UN diplomats believe sanctions will prod Saddam Hussein’s government into full disarmament.

UNSCOM has reported that the vast bulk of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction has been scrapped, but that Baghdad must account for significant quantities of potential weapons – particularly VX nerve agent and several biological toxins.

Meanwhile, the damage from sanctions has been high. The UN Children’s Fund has estimated that 5,000 children die each month from preventable disease and malnutrition as a result of sanctions.

Despite the oil-for-food programme, UN officials contend that the picture for Iraq under sanctions remains bleak. Benon Sevan, executive director of the UN Iraq Programme, said that Iraq’s refineries and pipelines have suffered too much disrepair from the war and sanctions to be able to meet the maximum export level of the oil-for-food plan.

In a report to the Council this week, Sevan wrote that a new plan to distribute humanitarian goods by the Iraqi government has met UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s approval.

“The secretary-general has come to the conclusion that the plan, if properly implemented, should meet the requirements of equitable distribution of humanitarian goods to the Iraqi population throughout the country,” Sevan wrote.