POLITICS-SYRIA: Restraint Is the Only Option

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

George Baghdadi

DAMASCUS, Oct 7 2003 (IPS) - Israel is risking a wider Middle East conflict in taking its battle against Palestinian militants to Syria for the first time in decades, analysts say. But a Syrian military response does not seem an option.

Following weeks of increased military activity against the Palestinians, the Israeli attack on a civilian site near Damascus Sunday suggests that Israeli reservists should not be surprised if they find themselves spending more time with their units in the near future.

Israel says the raid that came the day after a suicide bomber killed 19 people in an Israeli restaurant, was aimed at a training camp for "terror groups". This is the first time Israel has struck so far inside Syrian territory since the 1973 Middle East war.

Security officials stopped journalists from approaching the controversial camp in Ein Saheb, 22 kilometres northwest of Damascus, which Israeli warplanes bombed at 4.30 am local time (0130 GMT) Sunday.

Syria described the Israeli strike as a "grave escalation" of tensions in the Middle East and called for an immediate meeting of the United Nations Security Council.

In a letter to the United Nations, Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa said Syria was capable of deterring Israel but would exercise restraint over the raid.

Sharaa said in the letter that the attack "threatens security and peace in the region and internationally, and could aggravate the deteriorating situation in the region into dire consequences that would be hard to control."

But Syria has long insisted it will not make peace with Israel until it withdraws completely from the Golan Heights, a Syrian plateau that Israel captured in 1967.

Israel said it did not intend to begin a fight with Syria, on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the 1973 Middle East war, but wanted the air strike to serve as a warning to Palestinian militant groups operating in Syrian territory.

George Jabbour, a member of Syria’s parliament, ruled out any military response. "The military option has conditions, among them that it be beneficial to Syria," he said. Military responses have not always helped Syria, he added.

It was hard to see how Syria could respond directly without provoking further strikes. The Syrian Army is no match for Israel’s military might. On the other hand, Syria can ill afford to be seen yielding to Israel’s threats.

"It is no secret that Israel enjoys a special place in Washington’s heart," Mohammed Ela, a political science teacher at Damascus University told IPS. "It is therefore useless and probably counter-productive for Syrian leaders to trot out the same unimaginative slogans they have used for years."

Instead, he said, Syria needs to tone down its rhetoric and present its arguments more convincingly.

"The Syrians say, let’s be smart this time and allow the other side to shoot itself in the foot by angling for a war in which none of its would-be adversaries show any interest," he added.

It is not clear how the militant group Hizbullah whose premises were targeted by the Israeli air force would react.

Hizbullah has vowed to oust the Israeli Army from the disputed Shebaa Farms along the Lebanese border in the belief that Israel would hesitate to open a new front while combating the Palestinian Intifadah in the occupied West Bank and Gaza.

Hizbullah cannot in any case retaliate on behalf of Syria, given the lack of consensus in Lebanon on its campaign over the Shebaa Farms. Hizbullah and Syria have to an extent a shared strategic approach over Israel, but neither is willing to jeopardise its interests for the other.

If Hizbullah keeps up its campaign over the Shebaa Farms, more Syrian military positions could be targeted by Israel’s warplanes. It is also no secret that the Israeli Army has a list of potential targets in Lebanon ranging from military roads along the Lebanon-Syria border to concentrations of troops and armour.

Many Syrians believe a military response is unnecessary, and that this kind of military attack will bring greater dangers to Israel than to Syria.

"Israelis now face more personal danger throughout the country, and Sharon’s policies reveal to Israelis that so-called deterrence and military power are ineffective," says Samir Taqi, a professor at Damascus University.