POLITICS-NEPAL: Nation on Edge as Besieged Premier Digs In

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Suman Pradhan

KATHMANDU, Nov 22 2003 (IPS) - It has been a tough week for Nepalese Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa.

Exactly a week ago on Saturday, Maoist rebels ambushed and killed a brigadier general of the Royal Nepal Army (RNA), the highest ranking officer killed so far in the seven-year insurgency aimed at converting this constitutional monarchy into a republic.

On Nov. 19, a group of donors who have down the years lent considerable budgetary support to this impoverished Himalayan kingdom issued a strong statement linking future support to urgent political reforms to correct the current ”democratic vaccum”.

A day later, Thapa’s pro-royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) issued an ultimatum to him to quit in 20 hours to pave the way for a ”solution” to the present political crisis. Though the prime minister rejected the ultimatum, his troubles are not yet over.

To top it all off, the top leader of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) held a two-day meeting with top Maoist leaders on Wednesday and Thursday in the northern Indian city of Lucknow, exploring ways to ”join forces” with the rebels in a bid to pressure the monarchy and its hand-picked Thapa government.

Cornered from all sides, Prime Minister Thapa – who was appointed in June by King Gyanendra to bring the Maoists to the negotiating table, to get the opposition political parties on board a multi-party government, and hold elections – is facing the most serious challenge of his short premiership.

If things go out of hand, it could not only sweep away his government but also bring his enemies – the parties and the Maoists – closer in an alliance that could spell trouble for Nepal’s 234-year-old monarchy.

Thapa understands this. He has been putting a brave face throughout the week trying to project an image of being in control. But analysts here say the tide is turning against the royalist government and Nepal could very well have a new government comprising of all parties which would make a fresh start with the Maoist rebels.

”Of all the trouble Nepal faces at the moment, none is greater than the Maoist insurgency,” says Deepak Thapa, a political analyst. That realisation is forcing the prime minister to either come up with a solution, or give way for another government that can explore new ways, analysts say.

Increasingly it is coming to appear like time is on the opposition parties’ side. Sidelined for more than a year since the royal takeover of October 2002, the political parties – a grouping of five parties waging an ”anti-regression” movement against the King’s ouster of an elected government – are beginning to finally get their act together.

The donors too have played a role in all this. The donor community, largely the EU and Nordic countries as well as Switzerland and Canada, are also increasingly vocal in their support for a democratic process. Early this week, as soon as the World Bank approved a 70 million U.S> dollar loan for Nepal’s Country Assistance Strategy, the donors issued a strong statement calling for democratic reforms.

The Maoists have been active too. In recent weeks, they have been publicly courting the parties to join them in the fight against the monarchy. The convergence of all these different strands is making the parties bolder in its fight with the royalist government.

But political leaders say that while an outright alliance with what they see as a violent ”terrorist” group is impossible, there could be some sort of understanding between the parties and the Maoists to push for democratic reforms and fresh negotiations.

CPN (UML) general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal’s meeting with top Maoist leaders Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai in Lucknow this week is being seen as a step in that direction.

That has put the royalists on the defensive. The RPP, which blindly supports the monarchy, seem to think that Thapa’s continued tenure in government is pushing the Maoists and the parties to come together.

Some say that the RPP’s recent ultimatum to Thapa to quit and pave the way for a solution is nothing more than the RPP’s strategy to bring the opposition parties on board a new government and help thwart an alliance between them and the Maoists.

”It’s a clever plan if it works,” says a senior RPP leader who is closely aligned with the prime minister. ”But the trouble is the prime minister has no intention of complying with the party ultimatum.”

Indeed on Thursday, hours after the ultimatum was issued, Thapa took a combative line. ”The party has no justification to ask for my resignation,” an agitated prime minister said in a press conference. ”I was appointed under special circumstances by the King and my government is responsible only to the King and the people, not the party.”

Thapa’s rejection of the ultimatum given him has sent his party leaders scurrying to find a suitable response to the challenge. RPP leaders are now talking of disciplining Thapa, who ironically is the founding president of the RPP. But they have little options.

Since Thapa was appointed by the King in June, only the King can remove him from office. But since the King has already publicly announced that he had given all ”executive power” back to the Thapa government, he simply cannot sack the prime minister without raising further doubts of constitutional impropriety. In the absence of an elected parliament, the prime minister cannot simply be voted out of power either.

That means Thapa will have to resign in order for a change of government to occur, although he is not budging.

On Sunday, he is flying to New Delhi, India, on the start of a nearly two-week long tour of South Asian capitals in preparation of the summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation in Islamabad in January. Nepal currently chairs the grouping.

All indications are, the turmoil in Nepalese politics will continue once Thapa returns from his foreign sojourn. But no one knows how it is all going to end.