CHECHNYA-RUSSIA: Peace Goes with Lebed?

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Sergei Strokan

MOSCOW, Oct 22 1996 (IPS) - The dismissal from office of the man who brokered the agreement that ended a protracted war in the Russian republic of Chechnya has raised fears about the durability of that accord.

Last week, a day before President Boris Yeltsin fired Alexander Lebed, architect of the Aug. 31 Khasavyurt peace deal between the Kremlin and rebel leaders seeking independence Chechnya, there was another significant development.

General Mikhail Kolesnikov, who held operational control of the armed forces throughout the war in Chechnya, was fired by presidential decree.

Military experts said though Kolesnikov had not been close to Lebed, his dismissal was among many changes in Russian security bodies, including the appointment Saturday of Ivan Rybkin, ex- speaker of the Duma, lower house of Rus sian parliament, as new Russian Security Secretary, replacing Lebed.

Appearing on Russian television shortly after his appointment, Rybkin stressed that Moscow would stand by the Khasavyurt peace deal and continue its efforts to restore normalcy to the republic.

“I am a confident supporter of peace agreements in Chechnya and will do everything to get out of the crisis,” Rybkin said. “The peace deal signed in August was a brainchild of hundres of experts, not Lebed alone. It is well-balanced and should not be changed overnignt.”

That assurance pleased the Chechen rebels. Their spokesman Movladi Udugov told ITAR-TASS Sunday that Rybkin’s assurances “are inspiring certain optimism”.

Udugov, who is in charge of state politics in the Chechen coalition government, said the Chechen side “has no esential criticism of the process of the realization of peace agreements”. Aslan Maskhadov, newly appointed prime-minister of the coalition government set up to run Chechnya, declined to commenat on the future of Russian policy in Chechnya.

Maskhadov, a former rebel Chief of Staff, was signatory to the Khasavyurt agreement. “We would judge by Rybkin’s deeds,” he told ITAR-TASS Sunday.

Lebed’s removal has caused dismay in Chechnya. Many hoped the Khasayyurt peace plan which has held for seven weeks would definititvely end the 21-month-long war. Lebed came under attack from elements in the Kremlin over the deal. The separatist leaders expressed anxiety over the future of the peace process. Civilains still shaken by the heavy fighting in August feared the worst.

“We are very anxious, the struggle for power that is going on in Kremlin is far from funny,” said Movladi Udugov.

“Lebed was and is the key to a peace settlement in Chechnya and thanks to him there is no more shooting,” Udugov told Russian TV Channel 1 from the joint headquarters of the new Russian-Chechen commission in the republic’s capital Grozny, the only functioning authority in the city.

Establishment of a joint headquarters and commission were key points in the peace deal Lebed signed with the rebels.

“But we are ready for any unexpected turn of events, if the war starts again tomorrow we will not be particularly surprised,” said the rebel spokesman. “We are ready for peace, and we are ready for war”.

This sentiment was echoed by Mashadov. “The main task of my government is fostering the fragile peace in Chechnya as much as possible,” Maskhadov told ITAR-TASS. The new coalition government met Saturday for the first time. President of the self-proclaimed republic Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev read a decree appointing Aslan Maskhadov prime minister.

Maskhadov stressed that all economic problems facing the war- torn republic could be solved if a new outbreak of war is prevented.

“Withdrawal of Russian troops from Chechnya will continue, as would work on the exchange of prisoners,” says General Vyacheslav Ovchinnikov, commander of Russian Interior Minstry troops in Grozny.

While Lebed’s decisiveness and toughness was valuable in stopping the fighting, he was no longer essential to a process that had now moved on to political issues, Ovchinnikov said.

In a dig against Lebed he said: “His actions were good at their time, but then he made a publicity campaign out of them and he talked more than he achieved”.

But Chechen field commanders say although many Russian troops have been pulled out to bases on the Northern and Eastern outskirts of Grozny, there are still scattered posts on the central plains around the city and a concentration of troops in the north of the republic. No agrement has been reached for withdrawal of the last two brigades numbering an estimated 18,OOO men.

Officials at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) misison in Grozny said issues like the presence of the two brigades and the high level of crime in Grozny could be used as a pretext for halting the peace process.

“The peace process will go on, but it will be slower and more drawn out without Lebed,” said Hussein Khamidov, the Chechen representative in charge of prisoner exchange. “He was a man who could get things moving”.

Not only Chechens but the remaining Russian soldiers in the republic who greeted the news of Lebed’s sacking with apprehension.

“Ask anyone and they say there will be war,” a homesick private named Pavel told Russian Independent TV. “Lebed understands soldiers better than any politician. He was a soldier himself. He went through combat, he knows what it is like.”

The Khasavyurt deal was sharply criticized by different forces — from Interior Minister Anatoly Kulikov and Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov to Communist and nationalist opposition in parliament, who view it as “Russia’s capitulation in Chechnya” and “betrayal of native Russi ans living in the republic”.

Two days before Lebed was sacked, the Duma, at closed-door hearings, blasted Lebed for his deal with Chechnya.

So strong have been the positions of the opponents of Chechen peace in Moscow analysts are reluctant to make opimistic forecasts. But Stepan Kisselev, politcal analyst with the Izvestia newspaper said Lebed’s dismissal was almost a guarantte the peace would hold for the immediate future.

“It would be political suicide for the Kremlin to move the troops back in Chechnya,” Kisselev told IPS. “That will make Lebed into a permanent folk hero and immensly boost his chances as presidential ho peful if new elections are held before 2OOO.” (IPS/ENDS/SS/fn/96)

= 10221528 DAP0049