ELECTIONS-BRAZIL: TV Debate to Determine Race for Presidency

By Mario Osava Reprint | | Print |

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct 2 2002 (IPS) - The televised debate between Brazil’s presidential candidates to be aired Thursday night could determine whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins outright on Sunday or will have to go to a runoff on Oct 27.

The decisive factor in the campaign will be the debate organised by the Red Globo, the powerful network that monopolises nearly two-thirds of the country’s TV audience, said Marcos Figueiredo, a professor at the Rio de Janeiro University Research Institute’s centre for political studies.

Thursday’s TV programme will be the last chance for the leading candidates to succeed President Fernando Henrique Cardoso to convince voters that they are presenting the best policy proposals for the next four years, because at midnight Thursday the ban on political publicity kicks in.

The latest surveys indicate that Lula, the candidate of a coalition headed by the leftist Workers’ Party (PT), would only need to win the support of between one and three percent more voters to take 50 percent-plus-one vote and win a first-round victory on Sunday.

But Figueiredo told IPS that just when things seemed to be moving in that direction, the opinion polls began to show last week that support for Lula had stopped its steady climb.

The debate to be broadcast Thursday could give Lula the final push he needs to win on Sunday without going to a second round.

The outcome of the debate will also have a bearing on the all- important dispute for second place, the winner of which would compete in the run-off with Lula if a second round became necessary.

The surveys show that the governing coalition candidate, social democrat José Serra, enjoys a slight lead over socialist Anthony Garotinho.

The debate appears to be even more decisive, due to the emphasis put on it by the media, said Figueiredo.

In the campaign, Brazilians once again demonstrated an unusual degree of variability in their voting preferences, analysts have pointed out.

Although Lula has led the polls from the very start of the campaign, in July and August his front-runner status was threatened by the candidate of the Labourist Front, Ciro Gomes, who is now in fourth place, with ratings of just over 10 percent.

Free media air time began to be made available to the presidential candidates as of Aug 20, proportionately to their parties’ showing in the last elections.

Serra, whose ratings have ranged between seven and 21 percent in the past six months, has advanced in the polls thanks to the media spots.

According to the laws that govern elections in Brazil, the media must give the candidates two hours of air time a day free of charge in the last stretch of the elections, which is distributed in proportion to the votes that each party won in the last elections.

Serra thus had twice the amount of time enjoyed by his chief rivals, as he is backed by a coalition with stronger parliamentary representation.

The PT, which in previous elections stood out for its frequent, massive street demonstrations, convened few rallies this year, and only in ”strategic” cities. The party’s ”militants have gotten older; their average age is close to 40,” and the electronic media have an increasing influence, said Figueiredo.

The certainty that Lula will win, whether in the first or the second round, has already been admitted off-the-record by President Cardoso and business leaders who have long criticised the political pretentions of a former metalworker and trade unionist who is making his fourth bid for the presidency.

Some business representatives have even publicly come out in support of Lula, like Eugenio Staub, the owner of Gradiente, a home appliances and electronics company.

The uncertainty over whether there will be a second round and who would be Lula’s contender in that case will only be cleared up in the vote-counting process, which is to be completed in the early hours of Monday morning, say analysts.

Besides the doubts as to whether Lula will win a majority of votes, and the narrow margin between Serra and Garotinho, a large number of blank and spoiled ballots are also expected.

Brazil’s 115 million registered voters are eligible to elect a new president and vice-president, 27 state governors, 54 senators (two-thirds of the total), and national and state deputies.

This will be the first time that Brazilians will use paperless computerised voting stations at a nationwide level, even in the most remote corners of the country.

The complexity of the new system could confuse some of the less well-informed voters and those who are unfamiliar with computers, although previous experiences carried out in most of the country did not show an excessive quantity of annulled ballots.

ELECTIONS-BRAZIL: TV Debate to Determine Race for Presidency

By Mario Osava Reprint | | Print |

Mario Osava

RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct 2 2002 (IPS) - The televised debate between Brazil’s presidential candidates to be aired Thursday night could determine whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins outright on Sunday or will have to go to a runoff on Oct 27.
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