THE REAL THREAT IS NUCLEAR TERRORISM

By Dietrich Fischer and - - Reprint | | Print |

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NEW YORK, Jul 10 2005 (IPS) - If the world continues on its current course, the terrorist bombs in London should be considered a mere foretaste of far worse future catastrophes, writes Dietrich Fischer, Academic Director of the European University Centre for Peace Studies in Stadtschlaining, Austria, and a member of TRANSCEND, a peace and development network. As long as the major powers insist on maintaining nuclear weapons, they cannot expect to prevent other countries and terrorist organisations from acquiring and using them. Those who still believe in the fairy tale of \”deterrence theory\” better wake up to the age of suicide bombers. Ee need a vastly more open world, where all nuclear weapons are verifiably destroyed and the manufacturing of new ones cannot be hidden. The IAEA can now inspect only sites that member countries voluntarily place under its supervision; such an \”inspection\” is meaningless. If we cling to obsolete ways of thinking –that threatening others will make us safe– we face extinction as a human species. Is getting rid of all nuclear weapons a realistic prospect? Certainly more realistic than waiting until they are used. Some have argued that we cannot disinvent nuclear weapons and therefore will have to live with them as long as civilisation exists. But nobody disinvented cannibalism either; we simply learned to abhor it.

The atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima killed over 200,000 people. Today’s nuclear bombs are vastly more powerful. If even one nuclear device had been detonated in a parked car or a sailboat on the Thames, the centre of London would be strewn with smoking radioactive rubble with probably over a million people killed outright and scores more millions left to die slowly from radiation disease.

The double standard, “Nuclear weapons are good for us but bad for you”, is stupid and unconvincing; believing that nuclear weapons technology can be kept secret forever is simply naive.

Those who still believe in the fairy tale of “deterrence theory” better wake up to the age of suicide bombers. The threat of apocalyptic retaliation will not deter a person convinced he will go straight to heaven after he is blown up.

Governments that order tonnes of bombs to be rained on Iraq and Afghanistan should not be surprised if this plants ideas in the minds of eager imitators. Osama bin Laden once benefitted from support and training financed by the CIA.

Richard Falk, a professor of international law at Princeton University, rightly pointed out: ”The greatest utopians are those who call themselves ‘realists’, because they falsely believe that we can survive the nuclear age with politics as usual. The true realists are those who recognise the need for change.”

What changes must we make if we want humanity to survive?

First, we must stop believing that problems can be solved by applying offensive military force, which only encourages others to retaliate in kind. Policing to stop criminals and defense against a foreign attack are justified; military interventions abroad are not.

Second, 37 years after the signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is time for the nuclear powers to fulfil their commitment to nuclear disarmament. We also need a vastly more open world, where all nuclear weapons are verifiably destroyed and the manufacturing of new ones cannot be hidden. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can now inspect only sites that member countries voluntarily place under its supervision. Such an ”inspection” is meaningless. The IAEA must have the power to inspect any suspected nuclear facilities, anywhere in the world, without advance warning; otherwise it will be impossible to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

The governments that now possess nuclear weapons object to such intrusive inspections as a ”violation of their sovereignty”. Yet many airline passengers also protested at first against having their luggage searched for guns or explosives, when such searches were introduced after a series of fatal hijackings. Today, passengers realise that such inspections protect their own security. Those who have nothing to hide have nothing to fear. Sooner or later, governments will reach the same conclusion. The question is only whether this will happen before or after the first terrorist nuclear bomb explodes.

Third, we need to address the root causes of terrorism: long festering unresolved conflicts. Peaceful conflict transformation is a skill that can be taught and learned. Johan Galtung, widely regarded as founder of the field of peace research, was able to help end a longstanding border conflict between Ecuador and Peru over which they had fought four wars by suggesting they make the disputed territory into a jointly-administered binational zone with a natural park. This peaceful intervention cost nearly nothing compared with a military peacekeeping operation.

We need a UN Organisation for Mediation, with several hundred trained mediators who can help prevent conflicts from erupting into violence. This is a worthwhile yet very inexpensive investment in human survival, compared with the trillion dollars the world spends each year to arm millions of troops, which only make the world collectively less secure.

If we cling to obsolete ways of thinking –that threatening others will make us safe– we face extinction as a human species, like other species that failed to adapt to new conditions.

Is getting rid of all nuclear weapons a realistic prospect? Certainly more realistic than waiting until they are used. Some have argued that we cannot disinvent nuclear weapons and therefore will have to live with them as long as civilisation exists. But nobody disinvented cannibalism either; we simply learned to abhor it. Can’t we learn to abhor the incineration of entire cities with nuclear weapons? (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)