Wednesday, November 11, 2026
News and Views from the Global South
AFGHANISTAN: Riding the Taliban Tiger
Analysis - A R Deo
- The Islamic Taliban militia are knocking at Kabul’s doors for a second time within a year of dramatically bursting in on the Afghan scene and establishing control over a third of the country.
Their rapid advance raises two important questions — firstly, will they succeed in taking Kabul from President Burhanuddin Rabbani and his wily commander Ahmad Shah Masud? And secondly, if the takeover of Kabul by the Taliban will bring lasting peace to strife-torn Afghanistan.
If recent history is any guide, even a Taliban victory, of which there is no certainty, is more likely to mark a temporary lull than a return to durable peace in the country.
No one had heard of the Taliban or religious students from seminaries in Pakistan before Dec 1994 when they rescued a convoy of Pakistani goods destined for Central Asia that had been detained and looted by warlords in the province of Kandhar.
Their amazing firepower and the guns, rocket launchers, tanks, helicopters and fighter aircraft at their command have led to the widespread belief that they are backed by Pakistan, though Pakistan maintains that it is neutral in the Afghan conflict.
Pakistan has long been an important player in Afghan affairs. When Afghan King Zahir Shah was overthrown by his Prime Minister Daud in 1973, Pakistan proved to be a safe haven for a number of Islamic groups opposed to Daud who were ready to undertake a ‘Jehad’ or holy war to establish an Islamic government in their country.
After the Apr 1977 coup in which Daud was killed and a left- wing combine came to power, equations changed drastically in Afghanistan. The erstwhile Soviet Union became the major player and marched its troops into the country in Dec 1979.
The country thus became a hotbed for super-power rivalry with the U.S. determined to undermine Soviet influence. The U.S. chose Pakistan as its frontline state conferring legitimacy on the then Military dictator Ziaul Haq who had overthrown the elected Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in an army coup.
Guns and money poured into Pakistan that emerged as the major base for the Mujahedeen or religious warriors fighting the Afghan Jehad. The retreat of Soviet troops in 1989 and the fall of the Najibullah regime in 1992 prompted many to think that the Jehad had been won.
Pakistan then strongly favoured the ethnic Pushtoon Hizbul Islami chief Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to lead the government in Kabul. But other Mujahedeen groups had different ideas and a fierce fratricidal war broke out among them.
Pakistan-brokered accords put Rabbani in power, but he was required to step down after holding office for six months. This he has consistently refused to do and Afghan watchers say Pakistan is determined to remove him and put a friendly government in his place so that the country remains within Pakistan’s sphere of influence and ensures smooth trade between Pakistan and Central Asia.
But Pakistan, even with the Taliban on its side, is not likely to find the going easy. For one, Iran that backs the Shi’ite Rabbani government, has already expressed serious concern over the fall of the vital western Herat province to the Taliban and said it endangers its own Khorasan province on the border.
Recent reports that Rabbani’s forces are fighting back in Herat suggest vital “outside” help from Tehran. Tehran has publicly claimed that the Taliban are backed by Pakistan and are likely to form a base in Afghanistan for anti-Iranian activity.
It has also said that Saudi Arabia and the United States are backing Pakistan in this endeavor because of the “Iran factor”.
Tadjikistan is also uneasy over the Taliban advance. Tadjiks form Afghanistan’s second largest ethnic group and support President Rabbani. Tadjiks are old enemies of the Uzbeks who are allied behind their chief Rashid Dostum who in turn backs the Taliban. Uzbekistan, therefore, backs the Pakistan-Taliban axis.
Russians, apprehensive over the advance of a religious militia and the domino effect it could have on the Central Asian republics at its doorstep, have expressed support for President Rabbani.
The Pakistanis also accuse arch-rivals India of backing Rabbani militarily. India has denied the charge, accused Pakistan of backing the Taliban and said it only flies food and medicines to Kabul.
With high stakes involved for so many international players, the conflict is likely to drag on with the different Afghan factions receiving support from different members of the international community.
Even if the Taliban do spring a surprise victory, there are apprehensions within Pakistan itself that it will not be an unmixed blessing. The Taliban are almost exclusively Sunni Pushtuns and their coming into power in Kabul could destabilise Pakistan’s fiercely independent Pushtun North West Frontier Province and to an extent, Balouchistan.
Should the Taliban be stalemated in Kabul, they could turn their attention to the border areas of Pakistan that have already been restive because of pro-Islam uprisings.
Pakistan has already paid a very heavy price for its Afghan policy. The country is awash with arms left over from the Jehad and its porus border with Afghanistan has led to the uncontrolled growth of drug trade resulting in over three million addicts among its youth.
Reports this week of the arrest of at least 40 military men for planning an Islamic revolt against the elected government have reinforced fears of the consequences of whipping up religious fervour and supporting Islamic militia like the Taliban.
In supporting them, Pakistan could be riding a tiger, commentators in the country say. And trouble lies ahead when it will wish to dismount, resulting in no durable peace for either Pakistan or Afghanistan.
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AFGHANISTAN: Riding the Taliban Tiger
Analysis - A R Deo
- The Islamic Taliban militia are knocking at Kabul’s doors for a second time within a year of dramatically bursting in on the Afghan scene and establishing control over a third of the country.
(more…)
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