BANGLADESH-POLITICS: Third Party may be Ultimate Winner

By IPS Correspondents Reprint | | Print |

Tabibul Islam

DHAKA, Jun 13 1996 (IPS) - Six years after he was jailed following a popular uprising against his reign, former President Hussain Mohammed Ershad looks as if he might find himself in the driver’s seat in Bangladesh again.

According to latest election commission counts, the two major parties in Bangladesh are running a neck-and-neck race for the spoils of power. The Awami League is leading with 130 seats while the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) has 102.

There are 330 seats in the Bangladesh parliament of which 30 are reserved for women who will be elected later by the chosen representatives. Thirty seats have been won by President Ershad’s Jatiya Party, while two have gone to the rightwing Jamaat-e- Islami and three to other parties.

Of the 32 remaining seats, if the BNP bags even 16, it is likely to be quite close to the League leading to a precarious hung Parliament. In that case, the Jatiya party will emerge as a key player and kingmaker.

Whichever party secures its support might be in a position to form the government. And it is quite clear that the party is likely to stipulate the release of Ershad, currently languishing in solitary confinement, as a major pre-condition.

The 67-year-old Ershad’s followers are very clear about what they want. “Your one precious vote will bring ‘Pallibandu’ (friend of the village) Ershad freedom,” went their campaign.

Ershad, whose nine-year reign was ended by the combined movement led by the BNP and Awami League, has already served five years of the 13-year sentence he received on corruption charges.

The enemity between the BNP and the League today is too deep rooted for them to form a working coalition. The other parties are likely to have too few members to help either of the parties obtain a working majority.

Although the Jatiya Party is closer to the BNP ideologically because they were both formed by former military generals, it currently appears that it will cast its lot with the League.

This is chiefly because Ershad squarely blames BNP leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia for his ills. Ershad had seized power in 1982 from a weak civilian government just a few months after the assassination of President Zia-ur-Rahman, a former General and the husband of Khaleda Zia.

There have been some allegations about Ershad being involved in the assassination.

Sheikh Hasina, leader of the left-leaning Awami League may have ideological differences with the Jatiya party, but is likely to work around them to form a coalition, analysts here say.

The two parties, along with the rightwing Jamaat-e-Islami joined hands in 1994 to launch a series of agitations to oust Premier Khaleda Zia’s regime and install instead a neutral caretaker government to conduct national polls.

When asked by newsmen if her party would go in for a coalition government, Hasina replied that it was still too early to tell. Even Zia gave a similar reply.

But 20 years out of power in the political wilderness may have made the League more amenable to compromises. And among these may be a dilution of its pro-India stand that has alienated a large part of its constituency.

The Friendship Treaty it signed with India in 1972 after that country helped in its Liberation war has often been dubbed as a ‘sell-out’. The treaty is likely to come up for renewal in 1997 and the League has indicated that it may not sign on the dotted line.

Bangladesh watchers are also keen to see how the new administration will handle the army that is currently on the simmer after its Chief was dismissed and placed under house arrest by President Abdur Rehman Biswas last month.

The army has held power for 18 of the 25 years of Bangladesh’s independent existence. Last month’s spat with the President over the forcible retirement of some top military officials led a section of the armed forces to revolt.

But the uprising was quietly subdued and the army has since been an interested observer of the poll proceedings. The League had accused the BNP of engineering the incidents and the army is reportedly not very happy with the League.

“We earnestly hope that as a disciplined force, the army will abide by the policy of any party which comes to power,” says a leading academic, requesting anonymity.